Odds overview
Mainz are modest favourites: a Mainz win is 2.25, a Schalke win 3.05 and a draw 3.65. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is 1.63, while Under 2.5 goals is 2.25. For handicap (0), Mainz at 1.65 are favoured over Schalke at 2.20.
Why Mainz are favourites
The bookmakers favour the visitors: a Mainz win is offered at 2.25, a Schalke win at 3.05 and a draw at 3.65.
- Mainz have been stronger in attack at the start of the season: the visitors average 2.6 goals per match, while Schalke have scored just 0.8 per game.
- The visitors regularly apply attacking pressure: Mainz have made more than 14.5 shot attempts, including blocked shots, in each of their last 10 Bundesliga matches.
- Schalke, however, have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches, recording either a win or a draw. That makes the draw an important part of the cover.
Form and Line-up Schalke
In the previous Bundesliga round on 11 October, Schalke lost 1:2 to Freiburg. They equalised in the first half and played with a numerical advantage for much of the match after an opponent was sent off, but conceded the decisive goal in the 85th minute.
Schalke's matches have been low-scoring, with an average of just 2.0 total goals per game. They are joint-bottom of the league on this measure, reflecting how tight their matches have been at the start of the season.
- There have been more than 10.5 total corners in 8 of Schalke's last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- Schalke's opponents have had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in 8 of the club's last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- The teams have committed more than 22.5 fouls between them in 8 of Schalke's last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Loris Karius, Hasan Kuruçay, Robin Gosens, Moussa Sylla, Satoshi Tanaka, Adrian Gantenbein, Kenan Karaman, Junior Adamu, Soufiane El-Faouzi, Nikola Katić, Maximilian Wöber
Form and Line-up Mainz
Against Bayer Leverkusen on 10 October, Mainz showed character by coming back from two goals down before half-time. Despite sustained attacking pressure and 23 shots, they conceded after the break and lost 3:4, only reducing the deficit just before the final whistle.
The visitors' matches are high-scoring, averaging 4.6 goals per game. That puts Mainz among the Bundesliga's three most open and entertaining teams.
- Mainz have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
- There have been more than 8.5 total shots on target in 9 of Mainz's last 10 Bundesliga matches.
- Mainz's opponents have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 9 of the club's last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-3): Alexander Schwolow, Phillipp Mwene, Fabio Gruber, Stefan Posch, Eric Martel, Kaishu Sano, Phillip Tietz, Nadiem Amiri, Anthony Caci, Sheraldo Becker, Kacper Potulski
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment favours a Mainz win, with a 42.5% probability and fair odds of 2.35, compared with 31.3% and 3.19 for a Schalke win. The draw is rated at 26.2%, with fair odds of 3.82.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke win | 3.05 | 3.19 | 31.3% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.82 | 26.2% |
| Mainz win | 2.25 | 2.35 | 42.5% |
Total goals betting analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 1.63 over Under 2.5 goals at 2.25. The position is reversed at the 3.5-goal line: Under 3.5 goals is 1.52 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.45.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.25 | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
Handicap betting analysis
Mainz have the shorter odds at every handicap shown: Mainz (-1.5) are 3.90 versus Schalke (-1.5) at 4.90; Mainz (+1.5) are 1.13 versus Schalke (+1.5) at 1.20. At the -1 and +1 lines, Mainz (-1) are 3.20 versus Schalke (-1) at 4.30, while Mainz (+1) are 1.17 versus Schalke (+1) at 1.30. For handicap (0), Mainz are 1.65 and Schalke 2.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.90 | -1.5 | 3.90 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 1.13 |
| 4.30 | -1 | 3.20 |
| 1.30 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 2.20 | 0 | 1.65 |
Both teams to score betting analysis
Both teams to score — Yes has considerably shorter odds at 1.55 than Both teams to score — No at 2.40, making it the more likely outcome.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 |
| No | 2.40 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
67/100
|
1/4
|
9/25
|
| 888sport |
61/100
|
3/10
|
9/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting analysis
The bookmakers have set the following team total goals lines for this match: Schalke — 1.5 goals; Mainz — 1.5 goals.
Schalke team total goals
For Schalke's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.25 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.55. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.52 and Under 1 is 2.45; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is favoured at 1.60 over Over 1.5 at 2.25. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.23 and Over 2 is 3.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.55 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.45 | 1 | 1.52 |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | 2.25 |
| 1.23 | 2 | 3.75 |
Mainz team total goals
For Mainz's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.15 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 4.40, while Over 1 at 1.30 is favoured over Under 1 at 3.20. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost level: Under 1.5 is 1.85 and Over 1.5 is 1.90. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.35 versus 2.90 for Over 2.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.40 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
| 3.20 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
