Odds overview
Scotland are favourites: a Scotland win is available at around 1.92, while a draw is quoted at 3.40 and a Slovenia win at 4.20. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.60 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.22. On the handicap, Slovenia (-1) at 1.41 has shorter odds than Scotland (-1) at 2.70.
Why Scotland are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Scotland win is offered at 1.92, a Slovenia win at 4.20 and a draw at 3.40.
- Scotland come into the match after a 2:0 away win over North Macedonia, with goals from Kieron Bowie and John McGinn.
- Slovenia lost to Switzerland 1:2.
Form and Line-up Scotland
Scotland are rebuilding under Sébastien Pocognoli: they lost 0:3 at home to Switzerland before beating North Macedonia.
Scotland's matches in Glasgow tend to be played at a relatively measured pace, with a moderate number of attacking moves. The two teams have never combined for more than 9.5 shots on target in Scotland's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches, and in 8 of those 10 games they combined for fewer than 25.5 shots.
- There were under 3.5 goals in 9 of Scotland's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Scotland scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Scotland had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-1-2): Angus Gunn, Stephen Welsh, Scott McKenna, Luis Binks, Ben Gannon-Doak, Lewis Ferguson, Billy Gilmour, Andy Robertson, John McGinn, Kieron Bowie, Oli McBurnie.
Kenny McLean and Kieran Tierney will miss the match.
Form and Line-up Slovenia
Slovenia beat North Macedonia (2:0) and drew with Scotland (0:0), taking 4 points from three rounds in Group B1. Away from home, Slovenia rely heavily on a compact defence and quick transitions into attack.
Slovenia's approach away from home limits the number of set pieces near their opponents' goal. They have not won the corner count in any of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches, while their opponents committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of those 10 games.
- Slovenia scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- There were under 3.5 goals in 9 of Slovenia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Slovenia had fewer than 11.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (5-3-2): Jan Oblak, Zan Karnicnik, Vanja Drkušić, Jaka Bijol, David Zec, Erik Janža, Mark Zabukovnik, Sandi Lovric, Daniel Sturma, Aljosa Matko, Žan Vipotnik.
Benjamin Sesko, Andraž Šporar and Benjamin Verbič will miss the match.
The teams' chances
A Scotland win is offered at 1.92, with fair odds of 2.02 and a 49.5% probability. A draw is quoted at 3.40, with fair odds of 3.58 and a 27.9% probability. A Slovenia win is available at 4.20, with fair odds of 4.42 and a 22.6% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland to win | 1.92 | 2.02 | 49.5% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.58 | 27.9% |
| Slovenia to win | 4.20 | 4.42 | 22.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.60 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.22. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals is available at 1.67, compared with 2.10 for Under 2 goals. The gap is widest at the 3.5-goal line, where Under 3.5 goals is 1.21 and Over 3.5 goals is 3.85.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.60 | 2.22 |
| 2 | 2.10 | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 1.21 | 3.85 |
Handicap prediction
Slovenia (-1) at 1.41 has considerably shorter odds than Scotland (-1) at 2.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | -1 | 1.41 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/50
|
33/100
|
83/100
|
| William Hill |
1/4
|
9/25
|
67/100
|
| 888sport |
1/5
|
9/25
|
83/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: Scotland — 1.5 goals, Slovenia — 0.5 goals.
Scotland team goals
Scotland team goals: Over 0.5 goals at 1.24 has considerably shorter odds than Under 0.5 goals at 3.60. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is quoted at 1.63 and Over 1.5 goals at 2.17. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.16, compared with 4.40 for Over 2.5 goals.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | 0.5 | 1.24 |
| 1.63 | 1.5 | 2.17 |
| 1.16 | 2.5 | 4.40 |
Slovenia team goals
Slovenia team goals: Over 0.5 goals at 1.60 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 goals at 2.22. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is offered at 1.22, while Over 1.5 goals is 3.75. Under 2.5 goals has the shortest odds at 1.03, with Over 2.5 goals quoted at 7.90.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.22 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 3.75 |
| 1.03 | 2.5 | 7.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jose Maria Sanchez (Spain)
Matches — 12 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 3.5;
Matches with red cards — 2 of 12;
Matches with penalties — 5 of 12.
Angus Fraser James Gunn
Stephen John Welsh
Luis Binks
Andrew Henry Robertson
Jack William Hendry
Billy Gilmour
John McGinn
Lewis Ferguson
Ryan Christie
Oliver Robert McBurnie
Liam Patrick Kelly
Josh Doig
Luke Robin Graham
Aaron Buchanan Hickey
Nathan Kenneth Patterson
Joshua McPake
Kristi Montgomery
Lennon Miller
Robert Philip Thomas Ure
Jan Oblak
David Brekalo
David Zec
Erik Janža
Jaka Bijol
Žan Karničnik
Mark Zabukovnik
Adam Gnezda Čerin
Danijel Šturm
Igor Vekić
Matevž Vidovšek
Jure Balkovec
Srđan Kuzmić
Vanja Drkušić
Tamar Svetlin
Timi Elšnik
Tomi Horvat
Žan Celar
Tjaš Begić
