Odds overview
Scotland are favourites: a Scotland win is available at around 1.92, while the draw is quoted at 3.40 and a Slovenia win at 4.20. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.60 is clearly favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.22. In the handicap market, Slovenia (-1) at 1.41 has shorter odds than Scotland (-1) at 2.70.
Why Scotland are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Scotland win is offered at 1.92, a Slovenia win at 4.20 and the draw at 3.40.
- Scotland come into the match after a 2:0 away win over North Macedonia, with goals from Kieron Bowie and John McGinn.
- Slovenia lost 1:2 to Switzerland.
Form and Line-up Scotland
Scotland are rebuilding under Sébastien Pocognoli: they lost 0:3 at home to Switzerland before beating North Macedonia.
Scotland's matches in Glasgow tend to be played at a relatively measured pace, with a moderate number of attacking moves. Across their last 10 Nations League home matches, the combined total of shots on target has never exceeded 9.5, while the two teams attempted fewer than 25.5 shots between them in 8 of those 10 matches.
- Under 3.5 goals was recorded in 9 of Scotland's last 10 Nations League home matches.
- Scotland scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 Nations League matches.
- Scotland had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 Nations League home matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-1-2): Angus Gunn, Stephen Welsh, Scott McKenna, Luis Binks, Ben Gannon-Doak, Lewis Ferguson, Billy Gilmour, Andy Robertson, John McGinn, Kieron Bowie, Oli McBurnie.
Kenny McLean and Kieran Tierney will miss the match.
Form and Line-up Slovenia
Slovenia beat North Macedonia (2:0) and drew with Scotland (0:0), taking 4 points from three matches in Group B1. Away from home, they clearly favour compact defending and quick transitions into attack.
Slovenia's away style limits the number of set pieces they win near the opposition goal. They have not won the corner count in any of their last 10 Nations League away matches, while their opponents committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of those 10 matches.
- Slovenia scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 Nations League away matches.
- Under 3.5 goals was recorded in 9 of Slovenia's last 10 Nations League matches.
- Slovenia attempted fewer than 11.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 Nations League away matches.
Probable line-up (5-3-2): Jan Oblak, Zan Karnicnik, Vanja Drkušić, Jaka Bijol, David Zec, Erik Janža, Mark Zabukovnik, Sandi Lovric, Daniel Sturma, Aljosa Matko, Zan Vipotnik.
Benjamin Sesko, Andraž Šporar and Benjamin Verbič will miss the match.
The teams' chances
A Scotland win is offered at 1.92, with fair odds of 2.02 and a fair probability of 49.5%. The draw is quoted at 3.40, with fair odds of 3.58 and a probability of 27.9%. A Slovenia win is available at 4.20, with fair odds of 4.42 and a probability of 22.6%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland to win | 1.92 | 2.02 | 49.5% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.58 | 27.9% |
| Slovenia to win | 4.20 | 4.42 | 22.6% |
Total goals
On the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 at 1.60 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.22. On the 2-goal line, Over 2 is offered at 1.67, compared with 2.10 for Under 2. The largest gap is between Under 3.5 at 1.21 and Over 3.5 at 3.85.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.60 | 2.22 |
| 2 | 2.10 | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 1.21 | 3.85 |
Handicap betting
Slovenia (-1) at 1.41 has substantially shorter odds than Scotland (-1) at 2.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | -1 | 1.41 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
17/100
|
29/100
|
1/1
|
| William Hill |
1/4
|
9/25
|
67/100
|
| 888sport |
1/5
|
33/100
|
17/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goal totals
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Scotland — 1.5 goals; Slovenia — 0.5 goals.
Scotland team goal total
For Scotland's team goal total, Over 0.5 at 1.24 has considerably shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 3.60. On the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is quoted at 1.63 and Over 1.5 at 2.17. On the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 1.16, compared with 4.40 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | 0.5 | 1.24 |
| 1.63 | 1.5 | 2.17 |
| 1.16 | 2.5 | 4.40 |
Slovenia team goal total
For Slovenia's team goal total, Over 0.5 at 1.60 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 2.22. On the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is offered at 1.22, while Over 1.5 is at 3.75. Under 2.5 has the shortest odds at 1.03, with Over 2.5 quoted at 7.90.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.22 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 3.75 |
| 1.03 | 2.5 | 7.90 |
