Odds overview
Germany are clear favourites: an away win is available at 1.29, compared with 6.20 for a draw and 8.80 for a Serbia win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.81. In the handicap market, Germany (1.5) at 1.75 look a better option than Serbia (1.5) at 2.00.
Why Germany are favourites
Germany are clear favourites with the bookmakers: an away win is offered at 1.29, a draw at 6.20 and a Serbia win at 8.80.
- Germany have avoided defeat in nine of their last ten away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Serbia have lost seven of their last ten competitive matches across all competitions.
- Germany beat Serbia 2:0 in October, restricting them to just 0.01 xG and one shot on target.
Form and Line-up Serbia
Serbia have still not managed to shake off their poor run. In their most recent completed match, on 4 October, they lost 1:2 away to the Netherlands. A few days earlier, on 1 October, they lost 0:2 to Germany without scoring. Before that, Serbia had also lost by the same score to the Netherlands (1:2) and Greece (1:2).
- Serbia have scored fewer than 3.5 goals in each of their last 10 competitive matches across all competitions.
- Serbia's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in eight of their last ten home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Serbia line-up (4-4-2): Dragan Rosić, Nikola Simic, Srđan Babić, Nikola Milenković, Strahinja Eraković, Vanja Dragojevic, Andrija Živković, Filip Kostić, Lazar Samardžić, Mihajlo Cvetkovic, Luka Jović.
Absentees: Adem Avdic, Ivan Ilić, Strahinja Pavlović, Aleksandar Stanković and Aleksa Terzić (all injured); Saša Lukić, Nikola Maksimović and Nemanja Gudelj (all suspended).
Form and Line-up Germany
In their most recent match, on 4 October, Germany drew 0:0 away to Greece. Earlier, on 27 September, they lost 0:1 at home to the same opponents. Germany did, however, take points against Serbia (2:0) and the Netherlands (1:1).
- Germany's opponents have scored fewer than three goals in each of their last 10 competitive matches across all competitions.
- Germany have registered fewer than 4.5 shots on target in nine of their last ten away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Germany line-up (4-2-3-1): Marc ter Stegen, Philipp Treu, Nico Schlotterbeck, Jonathan Tah, Nathaniel Brown, Joshua Kimmich, Tom Bischof, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Florian Wirtz, Derry Scherhant, Kai Havertz.
Absentees: Waldemar Anton, Serge Gnabry, Jamal Musiala, Assan Ouédraogo, Angelo Stiller and Josha Vagnoman (all injured).
Teams' chances
A Serbia win is offered at 8.80, with fair odds of 9.24 and a probability of 10.8%. A draw is available at 6.20, with fair odds of 6.51 and a probability of 15.4%. A Germany win is quoted at 1.29, with fair odds of 1.35 and a probability of 73.8%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia win | 8.80 | 9.24 | 10.8% |
| Draw | 6.20 | 6.51 | 15.4% |
| Germany win | 1.29 | 1.35 | 73.8% |
Total goals prediction
At a line of 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is available at 2.81 and Over 2.5 at 1.38. For the 2-goal line, the odds are 4.65 for Under 2 and 1.14 for Over 2. At 3.5 goals, the odds are almost equal: Under 3.5 is 1.77 and Over 3.5 is 1.97.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.81 | 1.38 |
| 2 | 4.65 | 1.14 |
| 3.5 | 1.77 | 1.97 |
Handicap prediction
Serbia (1.5) are available at 2.00, while Germany (1.5) are offered at 1.75: the market rates the Germany option slightly more highly.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 1.5 | 1.75 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
5/2
|
13/100
|
2/25
|
| William Hill |
13/5
|
3/25
|
7/100
|
| LeoVegas |
9/4
|
13/100
|
2/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team-goals totals for this match: Serbia — 0.5 goals; Germany — 2.5 goals.
Serbia team goals
For Serbia, Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.22 and Over 0.5 at 1.60. At a line of 1 goal, Under 1 is offered at 1.44 against 2.63 for Over 1. At 1.5 goals, the odds are 1.23 for Under 1.5 and 3.65 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.22 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.44 | 1 | 2.63 |
| 1.23 | 1.5 | 3.65 |
Germany team goals
For Germany, Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 7.40 and Over 0.5 at 1.04. At a line of 2 goals, Under 2 is available at 2.63 and Over 2 at 1.44. At 2.5 goals, the odds are almost equal: Under 2.5 is 1.84 and Over 2.5 is 1.90. For the 3-goal line, Under 3 is offered at 1.47 against 2.53 for Over 3.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.40 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.63 | 2 | 1.44 |
| 1.84 | 2.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.47 | 3 | 2.53 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Javier Alberola Rojas (Spain)
Matches — 10 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.3;
Matches with a red card — 0 out of 10;
Matches with a penalty — 1 out of 10.
