Odds overview
The Netherlands are clear favourites: a Netherlands win is available at 1.45, compared with 4.70 for a draw and 7.30 for a Serbia win. In the 2.5 goals market, Over 2.5 at 1.68 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.18. Serbia (+1.5) is quoted at 1.70, while the Netherlands (-1.5) are at 2.15.
Why the Netherlands are favourites
A Serbia win is available at 7.30, a draw at 4.70 and a Netherlands win at 1.45. The visitors are clear favourites according to the odds, although the chosen both teams to score market does not require them to win.
- Serbia made a poor start to the UEFA Nations League — a 1:2 home defeat to Greece. The hosts have yet to show the level of performance needed to take points against a top opponent.
- The Netherlands have scored in nine of their last ten matches and registered more than 4.5 shots on target in eight of their last ten home UEFA Nations League matches. The visitors' attack has been consistent, and they should create chances against Serbia's less than reliable defence.
- The Netherlands drew with Germany but dominated throughout — 3.18 xG, 22 shots and 10 on target.
Form and Line-up Serbia
Serbia began their UEFA Nations League campaign with a 1:2 home defeat to Greece. Andrija Živković opened the scoring in the 4th minute, but Greece came back in the second half: Christos Tzolis scored in the 74th minute before Anastasios Douvikas struck in the 90+2 minute to seal the win for the Greeks.
- Eight of Serbia's last ten matches in all competitions have had more than 2.5 goals.
- Eight of Serbia's last ten matches in all competitions have had fewer than 4.5 goals.
- Serbia's opponents have registered more than 3.5 shots on target in eight of their last ten UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Serbia line-up (4-4-2): Vanja Milinković-Savić, Nikola Simic, Strahinja Erakovic, Strahinja Pavlović, Filip Kostić, Andrija Živković, Nemanja Maksimović, Sergej Milinković-Savić, Mihajlo Cvetkovic, Luka Jović, Dušan Tadić.
Absentees: Dušan Vlahović, Mihailo Ivanović, Veljko Milosavljevic (all injured).
Form and Line-up Netherlands
The Netherlands are in their first international window under Xavi: his debut match against Germany ended 1:1. Virgil van Dijk initially scored from a corner, but the referee ruled it out after spotting a foul by Brian Brobbey. Felix Nmecha then put Germany ahead in the 34th minute, before Cody Gakpo equalised in the 90+2 minute to make it 1:1. Xavi's team dominated throughout, however, creating 3.18 xG, taking 22 shots (10 on target) and winning 12 corners.
- The Netherlands have scored at least once in nine of their last ten matches in all competitions.
- The Netherlands' opponents have scored at least once in nine of their last ten matches in all competitions.
- Nine of the Netherlands' last ten matches in all competitions have had more than 1.5 goals.
Probable Netherlands line-up (4-3-3): Bart Verbruggen, Denzel Dumfries, Jan Paul van Hecke, Virgil van Dijk, Micky van de Ven, Ryan Gravenberch, Quinten Timber, Tijjani Reijnders, Crysencio Summerville, Brian Brobbey, Cody Gakpo.
Absentees: Donyell Malen, Justin Kluivert, Frenkie de Jong, Mats Wieffer, Xavi Simons (all injured); Jurriën Timber (doubtful).
The teams' chances
The fair-odds estimate gives Serbia a 13.2% chance of winning, with fair odds of 7.59 against the available 7.30; a draw has a 20.5% chance, with 4.89 against 4.70; and the Netherlands have a 66.4% chance, with 1.51 against 1.45. The visitors remain favourites.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia win | 7.30 | 7.59 | 13.2% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.89 | 20.5% |
| Netherlands win | 1.45 | 1.51 | 66.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.68 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.18. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is favoured at 1.48, while Over 3.5 is offered at 2.55.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.18 | 1.68 |
| 3.5 | 1.48 | 2.55 |
Handicap prediction
The Netherlands (-1.5) are available at 2.15, while Serbia (+1.5) are at 1.70. At the one-goal handicap line, the Netherlands (-1) are at 1.65 against 2.17 for Serbia (+1). With a zero handicap, the Netherlands (0) at 1.13 are much shorter than Serbia (0) at 4.80.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.15 | |
| 1.70 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.65 | |
| 2.17 | 1 | |
| 4.80 | 0 | 1.13 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.85, slightly shorter than Both teams to score — No at 1.90. The latter means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.85 |
| No | 1.90 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/4
|
9/50
|
2/25
|
| William Hill |
5/4
|
1/4
|
3/20
|
| 888sport |
7/4
|
1/5
|
1/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: Serbia — 0.5 goals; the Netherlands — 2 goals.
Serbia team goals
For Serbia's team goals, Over 0.5 is at 1.70 against 2.10 for Under 0.5. At the one-goal line, Under 1 is shorter at 1.38, while Over 1 is at 2.80; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.20 is much shorter than Over 1.5 at 4.20.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 0.5 | 1.70 |
| 1.38 | 1 | 2.80 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.20 |
Netherlands team goals
For the Netherlands' team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.05 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 7.00. At 1.5 goals, Over 1.5 is at 1.50 against 2.50 for Under 1.5; the two-goal line is almost evenly matched — Under 2 at 1.85 and Over 2 at 1.90. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is favoured at 1.48, while Over 2.5 is quoted at 2.55.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.00 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.50 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.85 | 2 | 1.90 |
| 1.48 | 2.5 | 2.55 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches — 11 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.8;
Matches with a red card — 3 of 11;
Matches with a penalty — 4 of 11.
