Odds overview
AEK Athens to win at 2.60 are only slight favourites over Shakhtar Donetsk to win at 2.65, while a draw is available at 3.50. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.84 is slightly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 1.90. AEK Athens Draw No Bet (0) at 1.86 has a slight edge over Shakhtar Donetsk Draw No Bet (0) at 1.88.
Why AEK Athens are favourites
The bookmakers’ odds give the visitors a narrow advantage: AEK Athens to win is available at 2.60, Shakhtar Donetsk to win at 2.65 and a draw at 3.50.
- AEK Athens have yet to concede in the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League league phase — they beat LASK 1:0 at home in Matchday 1.
- Shakhtar Donetsk rank last among all UEFA Champions League league-phase teams for combined xG in their matches, with a figure of 1.03.
Form and Line-up Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk have produced convincing results in their domestic league: they thrashed LNZ Cherkasy 3:0 at home on 20 September and beat Veres Rivne by the same 3:0 scoreline away on 9 October.
Their attacking figures in the Champions League are modest: after Matchday 1, their average of one goal per match puts them third from bottom in the competition, while their total of four shots on target per match puts them last.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in seven matches — six domestic league wins and a 1:1 draw with PSV in Matchday 1 of the league phase.
- Shakhtar Donetsk have scored over 1.5 goals in six of their last seven competitive matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk have scored at least once in 9 of their last 11 home Champions League matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Dmytro Riznyk, Yukhym Konoplya, Valeriy Bondar, Mykola Matviyenko, Pedro Henrique Azevedo Pereira, Marlon Gomes, Oleg Ocheretko, Isaque, Alisson Santana Lopes da Fonseca, Gleiker Mendoza, Lassina Traoré.
Form and Line-up AEK Athens
AEK Athens have taken maximum points in their recent Greek league matches: they beat Volos 2:1 away on 20 September, then recorded a comprehensive 3:0 win over OFI Crete on 10 October.
AEK Athens’ opponents received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Champions League matches, although AEK Athens committed more than 12.5 fouls in 8 of those 10 games.
- AEK Athens: under 3.5 total goals in 8 of their last 10 Champions League matches.
- AEK Athens: opponents had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 Champions League matches.
- AEK Athens: under 10.5 total shots on target in 8 of their last 10 Champions League matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Alberto Brignoli, Stavros Pilios, Filipe Relvas, Harold Moukoudi, Lazaros Rota, Abubakari Koyta, Răzvan Marin, Kaan Kairinen, Lovro Majer, Dereck Kutesa, Luka Jović.
Barnabás Varga’s participation remains in doubt because there is no definitive information about his condition.
The teams’ chances
Shakhtar Donetsk to win: average odds of 2.65, fair odds of 2.78 and a probability of 36%. Draw: 3.50, 3.67 and 27.3%. AEK Athens to win: 2.60, 2.72 and 36.7%; AEK Athens have a marginal advantage on estimated probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk to win | 2.65 | 2.78 | 36.0% |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.67 | 27.3% |
| AEK Athens to win | 2.60 | 2.72 | 36.7% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.84 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 at 1.90. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 at 1.40 is considerably shorter than Under 2 at 2.73, while at the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 at 1.34 is much shorter than Over 3.5 at 2.98.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.90 | 1.84 |
| 2 | 2.73 | 1.40 |
| 3.5 | 1.34 | 2.98 |
Handicap prediction
AEK Athens Draw No Bet (0) at 1.86 has slightly shorter odds than Shakhtar Donetsk Draw No Bet (0) at 1.88.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88 | 0 | 1.86 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/25
|
3/10
|
11/25
|
| William Hill |
11/25
|
7/20
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
11/25
|
33/100
|
11/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Shakhtar Donetsk — 1.5 goals; AEK Athens — 1.5 goals.
Shakhtar Donetsk team goals
Shakhtar Donetsk team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.28 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.30; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 at 1.53 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.40. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.55 is shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.32, while at the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.23 is much shorter than Over 2 at 3.75.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.40 | 1 | 1.53 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.32 |
| 1.23 | 2 | 3.75 |
AEK Athens team goals
AEK Athens team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.28 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.30. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.55 is shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.32, while at the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.23 is much shorter than Over 2 at 3.75.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.32 |
| 1.23 | 2 | 3.75 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Chris Kavanagh (England)
Matches — 13 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.9;
Matches with red cards — 2 of 13;
Matches with penalties — 1 of 13.
