Odds overview
Slovakia are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.30, compared with 5.20 for a draw and 11.50 for a Kazakhstan win. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 is slightly favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.00. Slovakia (-1.5) at 1.93 and Kazakhstan (+1.5) at 1.87 are almost evenly matched; Slovakia (-1) is available at 1.45, compared with 2.65 for Kazakhstan (+1), while the zero handicap strongly favours the hosts: Slovakia (0) are at 1.05 and Kazakhstan (0) at 7.10.
Why Slovakia are favourites
Bookmakers clearly favour the hosts: a Slovakia win is offered at 1.30, a draw at 5.20 and a Kazakhstan win at 11.50.
- Slovakia have backed up their status as favourites with solid results in the competition, losing just 1 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Kazakhstan have struggled to score away from home, netting fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
Form and Line-up Slovakia
Slovakia began the current campaign with a 2:0 home win over Moldova. They have controlled their home UEFA Nations League matches well: in 8 of 10 games, they allowed their opponents no more than 13 shots and drew at least 12 fouls from them.
- Slovakia took more than 3.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- There were more than 7.5 corners in 9 of Slovakia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Slovakia's opponents received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Dominik Greif, Ivan Schranz, Milan Škriniar, Adam Obert, David Hancko, Stanislav Lobotka, Ondrej Duda, Tomáš Suslov, Adrián Kaprálik, Lukas Haraslin, David Strelec.
Form and Line-up Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan head into the second round after a 1:1 draw with the Faroe Islands. They regularly come under heavy pressure away from home in the UEFA Nations League: their opponents took more than 4.5 corners in all 10 of their last away matches, while Kazakhstan conceded more than 12 shots in 9 of those 10 games.
- The total number of corners exceeded 7.5 in 8 of Kazakhstan's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Kazakhstan received at least as many yellow cards as their opponents in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Kazakhstan committed at least as many fouls as their opponents in all 10 of their last UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Stas Pokatilov, Aleksandr Mrynskiy, T. Erlanov, Nuraly Alip, Yan Vorogovskiy, Islambek Kuat, Dinmukhamed Karaman, Bauyrzhan Islamkhan, Zhasulan Amir, Artur Shushenachev, Galymzhan Kenzhebek.
The teams' chances
A Slovakia win is offered at 1.30, with fair odds of 1.36 and a probability of 73.4%. The corresponding figures are 5.20, 5.45 and 18.3% for a draw, and 11.50, 12.06 and 8.3% for a Kazakhstan win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia win | 1.30 | 1.36 | 73.4% |
| Draw | 5.20 | 5.45 | 18.3% |
| Kazakhstan win | 11.50 | 12.06 | 8.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 1.80 and Over 2.5 at 2.00. At the 3.5-goal line, the advantage for the under is even clearer: Under 3.5 is at 1.30, compared with 3.25 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.25 |
Handicap prediction
Slovakia (-1.5) at 1.93 are quoted at slightly higher odds than Kazakhstan (+1.5) at 1.87. Slovakia (-1) are available at 1.45, while Kazakhstan (+1) are offered at 2.65. In the zero-handicap market, Slovakia (0) are at 1.05 and Kazakhstan (0) at 7.10.
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.93 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.87 | |
| 1.45 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.65 | |
| 1.05 | 0 | 7.10 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No at 1.45 looks considerably more likely than Both teams to score – Yes at 2.65: the market expects at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.65 |
| No | 1.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/50
|
2/25
|
3/1
|
| William Hill |
1/20
|
17/100
|
13/5
|
| 888sport |
3/100
|
11/100
|
18/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Slovakia — 2 goals; Kazakhstan — 0.5 goals.
Slovakia team total goals
For Slovakia's team total, Under 0.5 goals is at 7.10 and Over 0.5 at 1.05; Under 1.5 is at 2.30 and Over 1.5 at 1.57. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is offered at 1.80 and Over 2 at 1.95; at 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is at 1.50 compared with 2.55 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.10 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.30 | 1.5 | 1.57 |
| 1.80 | 2 | 1.95 |
| 1.50 | 2.5 | 2.55 |
Kazakhstan team total goals
For Kazakhstan's team total, Under 0.5 goals is at 1.50 and Over 0.5 at 2.50. Under 1 is offered at 1.11 compared with 5.20 for Over 1, while Under 1.5 is at 1.06 compared with 6.80 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 0.5 | 2.50 |
| 1.11 | 1 | 5.20 |
| 1.06 | 1.5 | 6.80 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Patrik Kolaric (Croatia)
Matches — 6 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 3;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 6;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 6.
Martin Dúbravka
Adam Obert
Dávid Hancko
Martin Valjent
Milan Škriniar
Lukáš Haraslín
Ondrej Duda
Stanislav Lobotka
Tomáš Suslov
David Strelec
Leo Sauer
Dominik Greif
Jakub Surovčík
Denis Vavro
Ivan Mesík
Ľubomír Šatka
Peter Pokorný
Tomáš Rigo
Adrián Kaprálik
Dávid Ďuriš
Ivan Schranz
Tomáš Bobček
Stas Pokatilov
Temirlan Erlanov
Nuraly Alip
Zhasulan Amir
Arsen Ashirbek
Dinmukhamed Karaman
Islambek Kuat
Nauryzbek Zhagorov
Ismail Bekbolat
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
