Odds overview
Slovakia are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.25, while the draw is quoted at 5.70 and a Moldova win at 13.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.05. Slovakia (-1.5) at 1.75 is shorter than Moldova (+1.5) at 2.05 in the handicap market.
Why Slovakia are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Slovakia are 1.25 to win, the draw is offered at 5.70, and a Moldova victory is available at 13.00.
- Slovakia have been solid defensively: their opponents had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Moldova have struggled in attack, scoring fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Form and Line-up Slovakia
Slovakia drew 2:2 with Montenegro in a friendly in June 2026, with Róbert Boženík scoring from a Matúš Bero assist. The match also marked Peter Pekarík's farewell to the national team, leaving some uncertainty on the right side of defence.
Slovakia's opponents often resort to fouls to disrupt the tempo in away matches against them: in 8 of Slovakia's last 10 home games, their opponents committed at least 13 fouls.
- Slovakia have failed to win the yellow-card count in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Slovakia have taken at least 4 corners in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Slovakia have committed at least 11 fouls in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Jakub Surovcik, Peter Pekarík, Denis Vavro, Adam Obert, David Krcik, Ondrej Duda, Artur Gajdos, Matúš Bero, Tomáš Suslov, Róbert Boženík, Adrián Kaprálik
Form and Line-up Moldova
Moldova hosted Bulgaria in a friendly in June 2026 and drew 2:2, coming from behind twice through goals from Victor Bogaciuc and Vladyslav Baboglo. The team face a demanding spell of four matches in 11 days, which could call for rotation in the later rounds.
- Moldova's opponents have scored at least one goal in each of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- At least two goals have been scored in each of Moldova's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Dumitru Celeadnic, Vladyslav Baboglo, Cătălin Cucoș, Mihail Gherasimencov, John Calin Revenko, Teodor Lungu, Petru Popescu, Ștefan Bodișteanu, Danila Forov, Virgiliu Postolachi, Victor Bogaciuc
The teams' chances
Slovakia are offered at 1.25 to win, with fair odds of 1.32 and a 76.0% probability. The draw is 5.70, with fair odds of 6.00 and a 16.7% probability. Moldova are quoted at 13.00 to win, with fair odds of 13.68 and a 7.3% probability.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia to win | 1.25 | 1.32 | 76.0% |
| Draw | 5.70 | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| Moldova to win | 13.00 | 13.68 | 7.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 2.05 and Over 2.5 at 1.75, so the market slightly favours at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 at 1.40 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 at 2.70.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.75 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Handicap prediction
Slovakia (-1.5) are quoted at 1.75 and Moldova (+1.5) at 2.05. At the -1 handicap line, Slovakia (-1) are 1.35, while Moldova (+1) are offered at 2.95. On a zero handicap, Slovakia (0) are 1.04 compared with 7.90 for Moldova (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 2.05 | |
| 1.35 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.95 | |
| 1.04 | 0 | 7.90 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No is quoted at 1.50 and looks more likely than Both teams to score – Yes at 2.45: the market leans towards at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.45 |
| No | 1.50 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/100
|
11/100
|
333/100
|
| William Hill |
1/20
|
3/20
|
27/10
|
| 888sport |
1/25
|
11/100
|
17/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Slovakia — 2 goals; Moldova — 0.5 goals.
Slovakia team total goals
For Slovakia's team goal total, Under 1.5 is quoted at 2.65 and Over 1.5 at 1.42. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 2.05 compared with 1.72 for Over 2. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is offered at 1.60 and Over 2.5 at 2.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 1.5 | 1.42 |
| 2.05 | 2 | 1.72 |
| 1.60 | 2.5 | 2.30 |
Moldova team total goals
For Moldova's team goal total, Under 0.5 is available at 1.55 and Over 0.5 at 2.35. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is quoted at 1.13 compared with 4.90 for Over 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.07, while Over 1.5 is 6.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | 0.5 | 2.35 |
| 1.13 | 1 | 4.90 |
| 1.07 | 1.5 | 6.40 |
