Slovakia vs Moldova: prediction & betting odds 26 September 2026

Odds overview

Slovakia are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.25, compared with 5.70 for a draw and 13.00 for a Moldova win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.05. Slovakia (-1.5) at 1.75 has shorter odds than Moldova (+1.5) at 2.05.

Why Slovakia are favourites

Bookmakers favour the hosts: Slovakia are offered at 1.25 to win, the draw at 5.70 and Moldova at 13.00.

• Slovakia defend reliably: their opponents have had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Moldova have struggled in attack, scoring fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Form and Line-up Slovakia

Slovakia drew 2:2 with Montenegro in a friendly in June 2026, with Róbert Boženík scoring from a Matúš Bero assist. The match took place as Peter Pekarík was bidding farewell to the national team, leaving some uncertainty on the right side of defence.

At home, Slovakia's opponents are often forced to disrupt the tempo with fouls: in 8 of Slovakia's last 10 home matches, their opponents committed at least 13 fouls.

• Slovakia have not won the yellow-card count in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Slovakia have taken at least 4 corners in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Slovakia have committed at least 11 fouls in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Probable Slovakia line-up (4-3-3): Jakub Surovcik, Peter Pekarík, Denis Vavro, Adam Obert, David Krcik, Ondrej Duda, Artur Gajdos, Matúš Bero, Tomáš Suslov, Róbert Boženík, Adrián Kaprálik

Form and Line-up Moldova

Moldova hosted Bulgaria in a friendly in June 2026, drawing 2:2 after falling behind twice and coming back through goals from Victor Bogaciuc and Vladyslav Baboglo. The team face a demanding spell of four matches in 11 days, which may require rotation in later rounds.

• Moldova's opponents have scored at least one goal in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• At least two goals have been scored in each of Moldova's last 10 matches across all competitions.

Probable Moldova line-up (4-4-2): Dumitru Celeadnic, Vladyslav Baboglo, Cătălin Cucoș, Mihail Gherasimencov, John Calin Revenko, Teodor Lungu, Petru Popescu, Ștefan Bodișteanu, Danila Forov, Virgiliu Postolachi, Victor Bogaciuc

The teams' chances

Slovakia to win is offered at 1.25, with fair odds of 1.32 and a 76.0% probability. The draw is available at 5.70, with fair odds of 6.00 and a 16.7% probability. Moldova to win is quoted at 13.00, with fair odds of 13.68 and a 7.3% probability.

Total goals prediction

At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 2.05 and Over 2.5 at 1.75, so the market slightly favours at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 at 1.40 is favoured much more strongly than Over 3.5 at 2.70.

Handicap prediction

Slovakia (-1.5) are quoted at 1.75 and Moldova (+1.5) at 2.05. At the -1 handicap line, Slovakia (-1) are available at 1.35, while Moldova (+1) are offered at 2.95. With a zero handicap, Slovakia (0) are quoted at 1.04 compared with 7.90 for Moldova (0).

Both teams to score prediction

Both teams to score — No is quoted at 1.50 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — Yes at 2.45: the market leans towards at least one team failing to score.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	1/100	2/25	7/2
William Hill	3/100	1/10	4/1
888sport	3/100	1/10	4/1

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team goals prediction

For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Slovakia — 2 goals; Moldova — 0.5 goals.

Slovakia team goals

Slovakia team goals: Under 1.5 is quoted at 2.65 and Over 1.5 at 1.42. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is available at 2.05 compared with 1.72 for Over 2. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is offered at 1.60 and Over 2.5 at 2.30.

Moldova team goals

Moldova team goals: Under 0.5 is available at 1.55 and Over 0.5 at 2.35. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is quoted at 1.13 compared with 4.90 for Over 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 1.07, while Over 1.5 is 6.40.

Who Will Referee the Match

Juxhin Xhaja (Albania)

Matches — 10 (International matches, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match — 22;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 5.1;

Matches with a red card — 2 out of 10;

Matches with a penalty — 3 out of 10.