Odds overview
Slovenia are clear favourites at 1.67 to win, while the draw is available at 3.70 and a North Macedonia win at 5.70. Under 2.5 goals is offered at 1.65, compared with 2.25 for Over 2.5. In the main handicap market, Slovenia (0) at 1.22 are favoured over North Macedonia (0) at 3.80.
Why Slovenia are favourites
The bookmakers' odds favour the hosts: Slovenia are 1.67 to win, the draw is 3.70, and North Macedonia are 5.70.
• Slovenia have been solid at home: 8 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League have featured fewer than 3.5 goals.
• North Macedonia suffered a heavy 0:3 defeat to Switzerland, creating almost no threat to the opposition goal.
Form and Line-up Slovenia
Slovenia drew their previous UEFA Nations League match against Scotland 0:0. They were more active in the first half, while Jan Oblak made crucial saves in the second. The hosts' matches also tend to feature fewer shots overall: in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the competition, the two teams had no more than 23 shots combined.
- Slovenia received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Slovenia committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Slovenia had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Slovenia line-up (5-3-2): Jan Oblak, Zan Karnicnik, David Brekalo, Jaka Bijol, Vanja Drkušić, Erik Janža, Aljosa Matko, Adam Gnezda Cerin, Timi Max Elsnik, Daniel Sturm, Andraž Šporar
Benjamin Sesko will miss the match through injury, while Zan Zaletel and Nik Prelec are unavailable for health reasons. Žan Celar and Jure Balkovec have also been called up.
Form and Line-up North Macedonia
North Macedonia face a packed run of four UEFA Nations League matches in 11 days, from 26 September to 6 October 2026, prompting the coaching staff to call up an expanded squad of 28 players. The Macedonians have been disciplined: they committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in each of their last 10 matches in the competition.
- Fewer than 8.5 corners were recorded in 8 of North Macedonia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Under 3.5 goals was a winning bet in 9 of North Macedonia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- North Macedonia and their opponents scored fewer than 4.5 goals combined in the first half of each of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable North Macedonia line-up (4-4-2): Stole Dimitrievski, Bojan Ilievski, Gjoko Zajkov, Visar Musliu, Sebastian Herrera, Tihomir Kostadinov, Matej Gashtarov, Enis Bardhi, Elif Elmas, Bojan Miovski, Elmin Rastoder
Nikola Serafimov will miss the match for the visitors through injury.
The teams' chances
Slovenia are offered at 1.67 to win, with fair odds of 1.74 and a 57.3% probability. The draw is available at 3.70, with fair odds of 3.86 and a 25.9% probability; the corresponding figures for a North Macedonia win are 5.70, 5.95 and 16.8%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia to win | 1.67 | 1.74 | 57.3% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| North Macedonia to win | 5.70 | 5.95 | 16.8% |
Total goals betting analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 at 1.65 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 at 2.25. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is longer at 2.15, compared with 1.67 for Over 2. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is available at 1.20 and Over 3.5 at 4.20.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
| 2 | 2.15 | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 1.20 | 4.20 |
Handicap betting analysis
Slovenia (-1.5) are offered at 2.85, while North Macedonia (+1.5) are 1.38. At the one-goal line, Slovenia (-1) are 2.30 and North Macedonia (+1) are 1.60. For the zero handicap, Slovenia (0) at 1.22 have shorter odds than North Macedonia (0) at 3.80.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.38 | |
| 2.30 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.60 | |
| 1.22 | 0 | 3.80 |
Both teams to score betting analysis
Both teams to score – No is offered at 1.65 and looks more likely than Both teams to score – Yes at 2.20: the expectation is that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.20 |
| No | 1.65 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/50
|
11/50
|
2/1
|
| William Hill |
3/20
|
29/100
|
23/20
|
| 888sport |
3/50
|
11/50
|
19/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting analysis
Bookmakers have set the following team total goals lines for this match: Slovenia — 1.5 goals; North Macedonia — 0.5 goals.
Slovenia team total goals
For Slovenia's team total, Under 0.5 is 4.20 and Over 0.5 is 1.17; Under 1 is 2.90 and Over 1 is 1.35. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 1.75 and Over 1.5 at 2.00; at the 2-goal line, the respective odds are 1.32 and 3.05.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 2.90 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.75 | 1.5 | 2.00 |
| 1.32 | 2 | 3.05 |
North Macedonia team total goals
For North Macedonia's team total, Under 0.5 is 1.92 and Over 0.5 is 1.82. Under 1 is offered at 1.30, compared with 3.25 for Over 1; Under 1.5 is 1.14, compared with 4.70 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.92 | 0.5 | 1.82 |
| 1.30 | 1 | 3.25 |
| 1.14 | 1.5 | 4.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Andrea Colombo (Italy)
Matches – 8 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.3;
Matches with a red card – 3 of 8;
Matches with a penalty – 3 of 8.
Jan Oblak
David Brekalo
Erik Janža
Jaka Bijol
Vanja Drkušić
Žan Karničnik
Adam Gnezda Čerin
Sandi Lovrić
Danijel Šturm
Tjaš Begić
Žan Vipotnik
Matevž Vidovšek
Žan-Luk Leban
David Zec
Jure Balkovec
Srđan Kuzmić
Tamar Svetlin
Timi Elšnik
Tomi Horvat
Žan Celar
Andraž Šporar
Stole Dimitrievski
Anes Meliqi
Andrej Stojchevski
Din Alomerovic
Mario Mladenovski
Agon Elezi
Elif Elmas
Jani Atanasov
Azer Omeragikj
Damjan Shishkovski
Bojan Ilievski
Gjoko Zajkov
Gjorge Dzhekov
Visar Musliu
Enis Bardhi
Ljupcho Doriev
Luka Stankovski
Hristijan Maleski
Bojan Miovski
