Odds overview
Slovenia are clear favourites, with a home win at 1.67, a draw at 3.70 and a North Macedonia win at 5.70. Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.65, compared with 2.25 for Over 2.5 goals. In the main handicap market, Slovenia Draw No Bet (0) at 1.22 is a much shorter option than North Macedonia Draw No Bet (0) at 3.80.
Why Slovenia are favourites
The bookmakers' odds favour the hosts: Slovenia to win is available at 1.67, a draw at 3.70 and North Macedonia to win at 5.70.
• Slovenia have been assured at home: eight of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches have featured fewer than 3.5 goals.
• North Macedonia suffered a heavy 0:3 defeat to Switzerland, creating almost no threat in front of goal.
Form and Line-up Slovenia
Slovenia drew 0:0 with Scotland in their previous UEFA Nations League match. They were more active in the first half, while Jan Oblak came to their rescue at key moments in the second. The hosts have also tended to feature in matches with fewer shots overall: in nine of their last 10 home matches in the competition, the two teams combined for no more than 23 attempts.
- Slovenia received more than 1.5 yellow cards in nine of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Slovenia committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in eight of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Slovenia had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in eight of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Slovenia line-up (5-3-2): Jan Oblak, Zan Karnicnik, David Brekalo, Jaka Bijol, Vanja Drkušić, Erik Janža, Aljosa Matko, Adam Gnezda Cerin, Timi Max Elsnik, Daniel Sturm, Andraž Šporar
Benjamin Sesko will miss the match through injury, while Zan Zaletel and Nik Prelec are unavailable for health reasons. Žan Celar and Jure Balkovec have also been called up.
Form and Line-up North Macedonia
North Macedonia face a busy run of four UEFA Nations League matches in 11 days, from 26 September to 6 October 2026, prompting the coaching staff to call up an expanded squad of 28 players. The Macedonians have been disciplined: they committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in each of their last 10 matches in the competition.
- Eight of North Macedonia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches featured fewer than 8.5 corners.
- Under 3.5 goals landed in nine of North Macedonia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- In the first halves of North Macedonia's last 10 matches across all competitions, the teams scored fewer than 4.5 goals combined.
Probable North Macedonia line-up (4-4-2): Stole Dimitrievski, Bojan Ilievski, Gjoko Zajkov, Visar Musliu, Sebastián Herrera, Tihomir Kostadinov, Matej Gashtarov, Enis Bardhi, Elif Elmas, Bojan Miovski, Elmin Rastoder
The visitors will be without Nikola Serafimov because of injury.
The teams' chances
Slovenia to win is offered at 1.67, with fair odds of 1.74 and a probability of 57.3%. A draw is available at 3.70, with fair odds of 3.86 and a probability of 25.9%; the corresponding figures for a North Macedonia win are 5.70, 5.95 and 16.8%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia to win | 1.67 | 1.74 | 57.3% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| North Macedonia to win | 5.70 | 5.95 | 16.8% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is shorter at 1.65 than Over 2.5 at 2.25. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is longer at 2.15, compared with 1.67 for Over 2. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is available at 1.20 and Over 3.5 at 4.20.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
| 2 | 2.15 | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 1.20 | 4.20 |
Handicap prediction
Slovenia (-1.5) are available at 2.85, while North Macedonia (+1.5) are at 1.38. At the 1-goal handicap line, Slovenia (-1) are at 2.30 and North Macedonia (+1) at 1.60. For a zero handicap, Slovenia Draw No Bet (0) at 1.22 is shorter than North Macedonia Draw No Bet (0) at 3.80.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.38 | |
| 2.30 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.60 | |
| 1.22 | 0 | 3.80 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No is offered at 1.65 and looks more likely than Both teams to score – Yes at 2.20: at least one team is expected to go without a goal.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.20 |
| No | 1.65 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/100
|
1/4
|
69/50
|
| William Hill |
3/20
|
29/100
|
23/20
|
| 888sport |
3/20
|
29/100
|
23/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: 1.5 goals for Slovenia and 0.5 goals for North Macedonia.
Slovenia team total goals
Slovenia team total goals: Under 0.5 at 4.20 and Over 0.5 at 1.17; Under 1 at 2.90 and Over 1 at 1.35. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 1.75 and Over 1.5 at 2.00; at the 2-goal line, the respective odds are 1.32 and 3.05.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 2.90 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.75 | 1.5 | 2.00 |
| 1.32 | 2 | 3.05 |
North Macedonia team total goals
North Macedonia team total goals: Under 0.5 at 1.92 and Over 0.5 at 1.82. Under 1 is offered at 1.30, compared with 3.25 for Over 1, while Under 1.5 is available at 1.14, compared with 4.70 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.92 | 0.5 | 1.82 |
| 1.30 | 1 | 3.25 |
| 1.14 | 1.5 | 4.70 |
