Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Slovenia are slight favourites at 2.60, while Scotland are available at 2.80 and the draw is priced at around 3.20. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 is significantly favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.25. At the Draw No Bet level, Slovenia at 1.85 is quoted shorter than Scotland at 1.95.
Why Slovenia are favourites
The bookmakers give the hosts a marginal edge: Slovenia to win is available at 2.60, Scotland to win at 2.80 and the draw at 3.20.
- Slovenia are playing at home and, against teams that are no stronger than them, home advantage often becomes a decisive factor. The hosts feel more confident in front of their supporters.
- Scotland approach the match with serious absences — McTominay, Adams, Tierney and McLean will not play. This weakens both the visitors' attack and defence, giving Slovenia an additional advantage.
- Scotland's new manager Sébastien Pocognoli is holding his first training camp and has called up seven potential debutants. In these circumstances, it will be difficult for the team to produce cohesive football, especially away from home.
Form and Line-up Slovenia
Slovenia failed to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, collecting only four points in their qualifying group. Their most recent matches were friendlies, where they also failed to produce good results — one win, one draw and two defeats (1:2 to Croatia and 0:1 to Hungary). Slovenia had better fortune in the UEFA Nations League — they finished third in UEFA Nations League B and retained their place through relegation play-offs against Slovakia (0:0, 1:0).
- In 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, Slovenia and their opponents registered no more than 10 shots on target.
- Slovenia received no more than two yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- In 9 of their last 10 away matches in all competitions, Slovenia scored one goal or fewer.
Probable Slovenia line-up (4-3-2-1): Jan Oblak, Zan Karnicnik, Jaka Bijol, Vanja Drkušić, David Brekalo, Sandi Lovric, Adam Gnezda Čerin, Timi Max Elsnik, Tomi Horvat, Žan Vipotnik, Andraž Šporar.
Absentees: Benjamin Sesko, Zan Zaletel, Nik Prelec and Marcel Ratnik (all injured).
Form and Line-up Scotland
Scotland reached the 2026 FIFA World Cup but performed poorly there. Their opening win over Haiti (1:0) was followed by two consecutive defeats — to Morocco (0:1) and Brazil (0:3). Scotland also disappointed in the UEFA Nations League, being relegated from UEFA Nations League A after play-offs against Greece (1:0, 0:3).
- Scotland were caught offside no more than once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- In 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, Scotland and their opponents received no more than five yellow cards.
- In 8 of Scotland's last 10 home matches in all competitions, there were no more than three offsides.
Probable Scotland line-up (3-4-1-2): Angus Gunn, Stephen Welsh, Luis Binks, Scott McKenna, Aaron Hickey, Nathan Patterson, Billy Gilmour, Andy Robertson, John McGinn, Robbie Ure, Oli McBurnie.
Absentees: Scott McTominay, Ché Adams, Kieran Tierney, Lawrence Shankland and Kenny McLean (all injured).
Team chances
Slovenia to win is offered at 2.60; the fair odds are 2.74 and 36.5%. The draw is available at 3.20, with fair odds of 3.37 and a probability of 29.6%. Scotland to win is quoted at 2.80, with fair odds of 2.95 and a probability of 33.9%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia to win | 2.60 | 2.74 | 36.5% |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.37 | 29.6% |
| Scotland to win | 2.80 | 2.95 | 33.9% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 is quoted shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.25. At the line of 2, Under 2 at 2.10 is rated higher than Over 2 at 1.70. For 3.5, Under 3.5 at 1.20 holds a clear advantage, while Over 3.5 is available at 3.95.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
| 2 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.20 | 3.95 |
Handicap prediction
Slovenia (-1.5) at 5.40 is quoted slightly shorter than Scotland (-1.5) at 5.70. At the handicap of 1.5, the odds are almost identical: Slovenia (+1.5) — 1.09, Scotland (+1.5) — 1.10. Slovenia (-1) at 4.50 is preferred to Scotland (-1) at 4.70, while at the line of 1 Slovenia (+1) is shorter at 1.13 against 1.15. In the Draw No Bet market, Slovenia at 1.85 is rated higher than Scotland at 1.95.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.40 | -1.5 | 5.70 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 1.10 |
| 4.50 | -1 | 4.70 |
| 1.13 | 1 | 1.15 |
| 1.85 | 0 | 1.95 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.82 is quoted shorter than Both teams to score - Yes at 1.92, so the scenario in which at least one team does not score is slightly more likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.92 |
| No | 1.82 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
2/5
|
9/25
|
1/2
|
| William Hill |
11/25
|
7/20
|
11/25
|
| 888sport |
11/25
|
33/100
|
11/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Slovenia — 1 goal, Scotland — 1 goal.
Slovenia team total
Slovenia team total: Under 0.5 at 2.90 is quoted higher than Over 0.5 at 1.35. At the line of 1, Under 1 is 2.00 and Over 1 is 1.78. For 1.5, Under 1.5 is shorter at 1.42 against 2.65 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.00 | 1 | 1.78 |
| 1.42 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Scotland team total
Scotland team total: Under 0.5 at 2.75 is rated higher than Over 0.5 at 1.40. At the line of 1, the odds are close: Under 1 — 1.85, Over 1 — 1.90. Under 1.5 at 1.37 is significantly shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.85.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.85 | 1 | 1.90 |
| 1.37 | 1.5 | 2.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Horațiu Feșnic (Romania)
Matches — 9 (international matches, 2025/26-2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 31;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 6;
Matches with red cards — 0 of 9;
Matches with penalties — 2 of 9.
