Odds overview
Olympique de Marseille are favourites to win at 2.03, while a Sturm Graz win and a draw are available at around 3.55–3.70. In the main goals market, Over 2.5 at 1.70 is favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.15. With Sturm Graz Draw No Bet at 2.60 and Olympique de Marseille Draw No Bet at 1.50, the market clearly favours the visitors.
Why Olympique de Marseille are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: an Olympique de Marseille win is available at 2.03, a Sturm Graz win at 3.55 and a draw at 3.70.
- Sturm Graz have made a poor start to the UEFA Europa League league phase, taking just one point from two matches and failing to score so far, with a goal difference of 0:3.
- The Austrian club have struggled to create chances in European competition: Sturm Graz have had fewer shots on target than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League matches, while they produced a modest xG of 0.36 against Bournemouth (0:3).
Form and Line-up Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz thrashed Grazer AK 6:1 in the domestic league, but their European results have been far less impressive. In the previous UEFA Europa League match, they lost 0:3 away to Bournemouth, again struggling to organise their attack.
- There have been fewer than 10.5 corners in 9 of Sturm Graz's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Europa League.
- Sturm Graz have received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Europa League.
- Sturm Graz have committed more than 11.5 fouls in each of their last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
Probable Sturm Graz line-up (4-4-2): Ammar Helac, Jürgen Heil, Arjan Malic, Joshua Quarshie, Petar Petrovic, Luis Balbo, Valmir Matoshi, Jon Gorenc Stankovic, Jacob Peter Hödl, Simon Seidl, Belmin Beganovic
Form and Line-up Olympique de Marseille
The French club tend to keep first halves tight: fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in the first half of each of Olympique de Marseille's last 10 matches across all competitions.
- There have been fewer than 10.5 shots on target in 9 of Olympique de Marseille's last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
- There have been more than 22.5 fouls in 9 of Olympique de Marseille's last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
- There have been more than 2.5 offsides in 9 of Olympique de Marseille's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Europa League.
Probable Olympique de Marseille line-up (4-2-3-1): Jeffrey de Lange, Timothy Weah, CJ Egan-Riley, Geoffrey Kondogbia, Emerson, Tochukwu Nnadi, Noam Kamissoko, Amine Harit, Himad Abdelli, Igor Paixão, Amine Gouiri
Teams' chances
An Olympique de Marseille win is rated most likely, with average odds of 2.03, fair odds of 2.12 and a probability of 47.2%. For a Sturm Graz win, the corresponding figures are 3.55, 3.71 and 27.0%; for a draw, they are 3.70, 3.86 and 25.9%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz win | 3.55 | 3.71 | 27.0% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 2.03 | 2.12 | 47.2% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.70, compared with 2.15 for Under 2.5. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is favoured at 1.47 over Over 3.5 at 2.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.47 | 2.60 |
Handicap prediction
Sturm Graz (-1.5) is offered at 6.20 and Olympique de Marseille (-1.5) at 3.30; at the +1.5 line, the odds are 1.30 for Sturm Graz (+1.5) and 1.07 for Olympique de Marseille (+1.5). At the -1 line, Sturm Graz (-1) is available at 5.50 and Olympique de Marseille (-1) at 2.65; at the +1 line, Sturm Graz (+1) is 1.40 and Olympique de Marseille (+1) is 1.10. For Draw No Bet, Olympique de Marseille (0) at 1.50 has shorter odds than Sturm Graz (0) at 2.60.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.20 | -1.5 | 3.30 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 1.07 |
| 5.50 | -1 | 2.65 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 1.10 |
| 2.60 | 0 | 1.50 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes has shorter odds at 1.60 than Both teams to score – No at 2.25: the market favours goals from both sides, while the second option requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
4/5
|
29/100
|
29/100
|
| William Hill |
3/4
|
3/10
|
3/10
|
| 888sport |
3/4
|
3/10
|
3/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Sturm Graz at 1 goal and Olympique de Marseille at 1.5 goals.
Sturm Graz team total goals
For Sturm Graz's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.35 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 2.95; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.70 compared with 2.10 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is favoured at 1.50, while Over 1.5 is offered at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.95 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.10 | 1 | 1.70 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Olympique de Marseille team total goals
For Olympique de Marseille's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.14 and Over 1 at 1.30 have much shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 4.60 and Under 1 at 3.25. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are equal — Under 1.5 and Over 1.5 are both 1.88. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.42 has shorter odds than Over 2 at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.60 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
| 3.25 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.88 | 1.5 | 1.88 |
| 1.42 | 2 | 2.65 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Nenad Minakovic (Serbia)
Matches – 14 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.9;
Matches with a red card – 1 of 14;
Matches with a penalty – 4 of 14.
