Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Sturm Graz to win is around 1.55, while the draw is 4.50 and Celje to win is 5.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.60, compared with 2.35 for Under 2.5 goals. For the main handicap, Sturm Graz (0) at 1.20 are much shorter than Celje (0) at 4.00.
Why Sturm Graz are favourites
Bookmakers offer 1.55 for an Austrian side Sturm Graz win — the hosts are favourites. The draw is available at 4.50 and a Celje win at 5.60.
- Sturm Graz have generally been hard to beat: they have avoided defeat in seven of their last ten matches across all official competitions.
- Celje's attack has been subdued in European competition: the Slovenian side have scored just two goals in three Europa League matches, averaging 0.67 goals per game.
Form and Line-up Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz go into this match after a league draw: they drew 1:1 away to Wolfsberger on 1 November. A few days earlier, on 25 October, Sturm Graz also drew 2:2 at home to Ried.
In the previous Europa League round, the Austrians were extremely solid defensively and secured a narrow win, beating Olympique de Marseille 1:0 at home on 22 October.
- Sturm Graz have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in nine of their last ten matches across all official competitions.
- Sturm Graz have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in nine of their last ten Europa League matches.
Probable Sturm Graz line-up: Ammar Helac, Arjan Malic, Joshua Quarshie, Pavel Kollar, Jacob Hödl, Jon Gorenc Stankovic, Valmir Matoshi, Luis Balbo, Luca Weinhandl, Simon Seidl, Oumar Diakité
Sturm Graz will be without the injured Daniil Khudyakov (broken ankle) and Nelson Weiper (leg injury).
Form and Line-up Celje
Celje thrashed Nafta 1903 4:0 in their most recent match on 1 November. According to the match report, Zoran Zeljkovic's coaching staff rotated the squad and rested several key players in the second half ahead of the trip to Sturm Graz.
Before that win, the Slovenian side drew 1:1 with Olimpija Ljubljana in the league on 28 October and beat Korotan Prevalje 2:0 in a cup match on 25 October.
- Celje have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in nine of their last ten matches across all official competitions.
- Celje's opponents have scored fewer than 3.5 goals in all ten of their last ten matches across all official competitions.
Probable Celje line-up: Zan-Luk Leban, Pijus Širvys, Łukasz Bejger, Artemiy Tutyshkin, Milot Avdyli, Svit Seslar, Mark Zabukovnik, Mario Kvesić, Veton Tusha, Blaz Kramer, Benjamin Verbič
Celje's Jost Pisek will miss the match with a cruciate ligament injury.
The teams' chances
Sturm Graz to win is offered at 1.55, with fair odds of 1.62 and a probability of 61.7%. The draw is quoted at 4.50, with fair odds of 4.71 and a probability of 21.2%. Celje to win is available at 5.60, with fair odds of 5.86 and a probability of 17.1%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz to win | 1.55 | 1.62 | 61.7% |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.71 | 21.2% |
| Celje to win | 5.60 | 5.86 | 17.1% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.55 is the favourite, while Over 3.5 goals is 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Handicap betting
Sturm Graz (-1.5) are quoted at 2.35 and Celje (+1.5) at 1.55. At the 1-goal line, Sturm Graz (-1) are offered at 1.85 and Celje (+1) at 1.95. At the zero-handicap line, Sturm Graz (0) at 1.20 are much shorter than Celje (0) at 4.00.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.35 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.55 | |
| 1.85 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.95 | |
| 1.20 | 0 | 4.00 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.65, while Both teams to score — No is 2.15: the option in which at least one team fails to score has the longer odds.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.15 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/50
|
1/5
|
69/50
|
| William Hill |
17/100
|
11/50
|
13/10
|
| 888sport |
17/100
|
11/50
|
13/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team-goals lines for this match: Sturm Graz — 2 goals; Celje — 1 goal.
Sturm Graz team total goals
For Sturm Graz, Under 0.5 goals is 7.10 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.05. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is quoted at 2.40, compared with 1.53 for Over 1.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.80 is slightly shorter than Over 2 goals at 1.95. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is offered at 1.45, while Over 2.5 goals is 2.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.10 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.40 | 1.5 | 1.53 |
| 1.80 | 2 | 1.95 |
| 1.45 | 2.5 | 2.60 |
Celje team total goals
For Celje, Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 2.45 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.52. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is 1.63, compared with 2.20 for Over 1 goal. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.30 is much shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 3.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.45 | 0.5 | 1.52 |
| 1.63 | 1 | 2.20 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Giorgi Kruashvili (Georgia)
Matches — 9 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.7;
Matches with red cards — 2 out of 9;
Matches with penalties — 1 out of 9.
