The first leg of the 2025/26 Europa League round-of-16 tie between Stuttgart (Germany) and Porto (Portugal) will take place on 12 March at the MHP-Arena. Stuttgart vs Porto: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Stuttgart
The Germans proved too strong for Celtic in the play-offs. Sebastian Hoeness' side built up an impressive advantage away from home (4:1), before losing the return match 0:1. Stuttgart have continued to produce uncompromising results in the Europa League: across the club's last 13 matches, they have recorded seven wins and six defeats. At the same time, the team have conceded in five straight games in this competition. After 13 years, the Germans will be back in the Europa League round of 16, but last time they failed to get past this stage.
- The team have scored at least twice in five of their last seven Europa League games.
- On home soil in this competition, Stuttgart have won four of their last five matches (one defeat).
- The club have conceded in seven of their previous eight home Europa League matches.
Potential Stuttgart Lineup (4-3-3)*
Alexander Nubel – Josha Vagnoman, Luca Jaquez, Finn Jeltsch, Maximilian Mittelstadt – Atakan Karazor, Badredine Bouanani, Chema Andres – Tiago Tomas, Deniz Undav, Jamie Leweling.
Due to injuries, defenders Luca-Jannis Kilian, Timo Hubers, Dan-Axel Zagadou and Josha Vagnoman will miss out.
Porto
The Portuguese side finished fifth in the main round. The team avoided defeat in seven of their eight matches (five wins, two draws), but conceded seven goals in the process, and among the top-eight sides only Midtjylland had a worse record (eight). It is also worth noting that Porto are currently on a five-game scoring run in this competition. The club have taken a step forward compared to last year, when they exited at the play-off stage. The last time the team managed to get past the round of 16 was in the 2013/14 season.
- Both teams to score has landed in five of the club's last seven Europa League matches.
- The team have scored in 12 of their previous 13 Europa League away matches.
- On the road, the Portuguese side have avoided defeat in five of their last seven games in this competition (two wins, three draws).
Potential Porto Lineup (4-3-3)*
Diogo Costa – Jan Bednarek, Jakub Kiwior, Francisco Moura, Alberto Costa – Alan Varela, Viktor Froholdt, Rodrigo Mora – Samu Aghehowa, William Gomes, Pepe.
Forwards Samu Aghehowa and Luuk de Jong, along with midfielder Tomas Perez, will not be able to help the team due to injuries.
Referee
Donatas Rumsas (Lithuania)
Matches – 11 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 36;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 18%.
Stuttgart vs Porto: Match Prediction
The return leg against the Scottish side brought Stuttgart's home scoring run in the Europa League to an end. What is more, prior to that match the home side had scored at least twice every time in this season's competition. However, the hosts could afford to play pragmatically, as Sebastian Hoeness' men had built a solid advantage from the first leg. We are confident that in the upcoming match the club will play in their usual attacking style. It is also worth adding that Stuttgart have conceded on home soil in seven of their previous eight Europa League matches.
The Portuguese side have been playing high-scoring football in the Europa League. The team failed to find the net only once in the group stage, and in four matches they scored at least twice. At the same time, Porto kept a clean sheet in only two matches, and those were against opponents who ultimately exited the tournament. The club have not moved away from their approach on the road either: the Portuguese side have scored in 12 of their previous 13 Europa League matches, but across that run the team have recorded only two clean sheets.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
* For each team, the starting XI from its last match in this competition is listed.
