Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Chelsea to win is available at 1.97, while Sunderland to win and the draw are both around 3.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.00. On the handicap, Chelsea (0) at 1.48 are markedly more likely than Sunderland (0) at 2.65.
Why Chelsea are favourites
Chelsea are the bookmakers’ favourites, with the away side offered at 1.97 to win. A Sunderland win and a draw have identical odds of 3.70.
- League position: Chelsea are fourth, in the Champions League places, while Sunderland are bottom of the Premier League in the relegation zone.
- Finances: Sunderland’s entire squad is valued at 458.5 million euros, compared with 1,015 million euros for Chelsea.
Form and Line-up Sunderland
On Thursday, Sunderland fielded an almost entirely second-string side and lost 0:2 at home to Dinamo Zagreb. Régis Le Bris’s team have slipped towards mid-table in the Europa League (11th place) and have spent three rounds rooted to the bottom of the Premier League in 20th. Their last success was a 3:2 win over Brentford in the fourth round of the EFL Cup, but that has only added to the squad’s workload.
- Sunderland have scored fewer than 3.5 goals in each of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Sunderland’s last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable Sunderland line-up (4-2-3-1): Robin Roefs, Trai Hume, Kevin Danso, Luke O'Nien, Reinildo Mandava, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Enzo Le Fée, Nilson Angulo, Chris Rigg, Brian Brobbey
Absentees: Romaine Mundle, Daniel Ballard, Habib Diarra (injuries), Omar Alderete (suspension); Nordi Mukiele, Juan Riquelme and Angulo (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Chelsea
In their previous league match, on 31 October, Chelsea beat Manchester United 2:0. Xabi Alonso used Pedro Neto up front in that game because João Pedro was still injured and Danny Welbeck was not a priority. The Portuguese player did not operate as a traditional centre-forward, and the entire front line was highly mobile. This set-up has helped Chelsea score freely — 2.1 goals, the third-highest figure in the league.
- More than 1.5 goals have been scored in each of Chelsea’s last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- The teams have scored more than 2.5 goals in 8 of Chelsea’s last 10 Premier League away matches.
Probable Chelsea line-up (3-4-2-1): Mike Penders, Josh Acheampong, Pep Chavarría, Levi Colwill, Wesley Fofana, Roméo Lavia, Moisés Caicedo, Cole Palmer, Estêvão, Morgan Rogers, Pedro Neto
Absentees: Reece James, João Pedro, Maxence Lacroix (injuries); Aarón Anselmino, Jorrel Hato, Emiliano Martínez, Jordan Henderson (injuries)
Teams’ chances
A Sunderland win and a draw each have average odds of 3.70, fair odds of 3.88 and a probability of 25.8%. Chelsea to win is offered at 1.97, with fair odds of 2.06 and a probability of 48.4%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
| Chelsea win | 1.97 | 2.06 | 48.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 2.00 and Over 2.5 at 1.80. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is quoted at 1.38 and Over 3.5 at 2.80.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| 3.5 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
Handicap prediction
Sunderland (-1.5) are available at 6.70 and Chelsea (-1.5) at 3.40. At the +1.5 handicap line, Sunderland (+1.5) are 1.27 and Chelsea (+1.5) are 1.06. At -1, Sunderland (-1) are offered at 5.90 and Chelsea (-1) at 2.70; at +1, the respective odds are 1.40 and 1.08. At the 0 handicap line, Sunderland (0) are 2.65 and Chelsea (0) are 1.48.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.70 | -1.5 | 3.40 |
| 1.27 | 1.5 | 1.06 |
| 5.90 | -1 | 2.70 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 1.08 |
| 2.65 | 0 | 1.48 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.70, while Both teams to score — No is 2.08: the shorter odds suggest that goals from both teams are considered the more likely outcome.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.08 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
4/5
|
29/100
|
1/4
|
| LeoVegas |
3/4
|
3/10
|
7/25
|
| 888sport |
3/4
|
3/10
|
3/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Team total goals markets are available for Sunderland and Chelsea.
Sunderland team total goals
For Sunderland, Under 0.5 team goals is available at 2.70 and Over 0.5 at 1.40. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 1.90 and Over 1 is 1.85. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is offered at 1.40 and Over 1.5 at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.75 |
Chelsea team total goals
For Chelsea, Under 0.5 team goals is available at 4.30 and Over 0.5 at 1.16. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is offered at 3.15 and Over 1 at 1.30; at the 1.5-goal line, the respective odds are 1.80 and 1.95. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.37 and Over 2 is 2.85.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 3.15 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.80 | 1.5 | 1.95 |
| 1.37 | 2 | 2.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jarred Gillett (Australia)
Matches — 6 (Premier League, 2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.7;
Matches with a red card — 0 out of 6;
Matches with a penalty — 0 out of 6.
