Odds overview
Leeds United are narrow favourites to win at 2.40, while a Sunderland win and a draw are available at around 3.15–3.20. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 is considerably shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.13. In the handicap market, Leeds United (0) at 1.70 are favoured over Sunderland (0) at 2.17.
Why there is no clear favourite
Bookmakers favour the visitors: a Leeds United win is offered at 2.55, a Sunderland win at 2.95 and a draw at 3.20.
• Sunderland are bottom of the Premier League table with just four points from seven matches and a goal difference of 6:14, so home advantage may not help them.
• Leeds United score relatively few goals for a team sitting seventh in the table (1.29 per match).
• Although Leeds United are slight favourites now, they took just one point from their matches against Sunderland last season.
Form and Line-up Sunderland
Sunderland lost 0:2 to Bournemouth in the previous round, playing most of the match with 10 men after defender Kevin Danso was sent off in the 17th minute. That leaves them without at least one experienced player. Overall, their defence has struggled: opponents have created almost as much in expected goals (14.88 xGA) as Sunderland have conceded in actual goals (14).
- Sunderland scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 8 of Sunderland's last 10 Premier League home matches.
- The two teams had fewer than 9.5 shots on target combined in 9 of Sunderland's last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable Sunderland line-up (4-2-3-1): Robin Roefs, Nordi Mukiele, Luke O'Nien, Omar Alderete, Reinildo Mandava, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Trai Hume, Chris Rigg, Enzo Le Fée, Timur Tuterov
Unavailable: Kevin Danso (suspended); Romaine Mundle, Dan Ballard, Thomas Meunier (injured); Brian Brobbey, Wilson Isidor (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Leeds United
Leeds United drew 1:1 at home with Manchester United in the previous round, equalising through Dominic Calvert-Lewin's second-half goal. Daniel Farke's side have scored no more than one goal in 90 minutes in each of their last three league matches. That is one reason they have also gone three matches without a win. At least Leeds United are one of the Premier League's healthiest squads: only Joe Rodon and Mateo Joseph are injured, while Daniel James is close to returning.
- Leeds United scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 9 of Leeds United's last 10 Premier League matches.
- Leeds United took fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
Probable Leeds United line-up (3-4-2-1): James Trafford, James Justin, Nico Elvedi, Tarik Muharemović, Jayden Bogle, Ethan Ampadu, Ao Tanaka, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Anton Stach, Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Unavailable: Joe Rodon, Mateo Joseph (injured); Daniel James (doubtful)
The teams' chances
A Leeds United win is offered at 2.40, a Sunderland win at 3.15 and a draw at 3.20. Removing the bookmaker's margin gives Leeds United a 39.8% chance and fair odds of 2.51, Sunderland a 30.3% chance and fair odds of 3.30, and the draw a 29.9% chance and fair odds of 3.35.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 3.15 | 3.30 | 30.3% |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.35 | 29.9% |
| Leeds United win | 2.40 | 2.51 | 39.8% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is offered at 1.70, compared with 2.13 for Over 2.5. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 is favoured at 1.62, while Under 2 is available at 2.25. At 3.5, Under 3.5 is the clear favourite at 1.23, compared with 3.70 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.70 | 2.13 |
| 2 | 2.25 | 1.62 |
| 3.5 | 1.23 | 3.70 |
Handicap prediction
Sunderland (-1.5) are available at 6.30 and Leeds United (-1.5) at 4.70. At the 1.5-goal line, Sunderland (+1.5) are offered at 1.14 and Leeds United (+1.5) at 1.07. Sunderland (-1) are available at 5.40, compared with 3.90 for Leeds United (-1); at the 1-goal line, Sunderland (+1) are 1.20 and Leeds United (+1) are 1.10. For the zero handicap, Leeds United (0) at 1.70 are favoured over Sunderland (0) at 2.17.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.30 | -1.5 | 4.70 |
| 1.14 | 1.5 | 1.07 |
| 5.40 | -1 | 3.90 |
| 1.20 | 1 | 1.10 |
| 2.17 | 0 | 1.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes and Both teams to score — No are both offered at 1.88; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.88 |
| No | 1.88 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/2
|
9/25
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
53/100
|
33/100
|
2/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team-goal lines for this match: Sunderland — 1 goal; Leeds United — 1 goal.
Sunderland team goals
Sunderland team goals: Over 0.5 is available at 1.43, compared with 2.65 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1 is 1.80 and Over 1 is 1.95. At 1.5, Under 1.5 is favoured at 1.35, while Over 1.5 is available at 2.90.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.43 |
| 1.80 | 1 | 1.95 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.90 |
Leeds United team goals
Leeds United team goals: Over 0.5 is offered at 1.30, compared with 3.25 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 at 1.65 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.20; at 1.5, Under 1.5 is offered at 1.52, compared with 2.45 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.20 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.52 | 1.5 | 2.45 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Stuart Attwell (England)
Matches — 30 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.8;
Matches with a red card — 5 of 30;
Matches with a penalty — 6 of 30.
