Odds overview
Tottenham are favourites: a home win is available at 1.97, while the draw and an Aston Villa win are quoted at broadly similar odds of 3.65 and 3.75. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.00. The handicap odds differ significantly: Tottenham (-1.5) are at 3.40 versus Aston Villa (-1.5) at 6.70, while on the zero handicap Tottenham (0) at 1.47 look more likely than Aston Villa (0) at 2.70.
Why Tottenham are favourites for the match
The bookmakers favour the home side: Tottenham to win is available at 1.97, the draw at 3.65, and an Aston Villa victory at 3.75.
• Aston Villa have made a difficult start to the Premier League and sit 19th before Matchday 5, with one point from four matches and a 1:7 goal difference.
• Both teams have also struggled in attack at the start of the season: Tottenham are bottom of the pre-match league standings for goals scored with none, while Aston Villa are third from bottom with 0.25 goals per game.
Form and Line-up Tottenham
In their last match on 15 September, Tottenham lost 1:3 to Liverpool in the EFL Cup. Head coach Roberto De Zerbi made eight changes to the starting line-up from the previous Premier League match, and afterwards specifically pointed to errors in conceding two goals and difficulties with finishing attacks.
In home Premier League matches, Tottenham are aggressive without the ball but disciplined in holding their line: they have committed at least 12 fouls while being caught offside no more than twice in each of their last 10 home matches.
- Tottenham have taken at least five corners in 8 of their last 10 Premier League matches.
- In 9 of 10 home Premier League matches, Tottenham's opponents have received no more than two yellow cards.
- In 9 of Tottenham's last 10 Premier League matches, their opponents have had no more than four shots on target.
Probable Tottenham line-up (4-2-3-1): Antonin Kinsky, Destiny Udogie, Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven, Pedro Porro, Rodrigo Bentancur, Sandro Tonali, Savio, Mateus Fernandes, Omar Marmoush, Dominic Solanke
Unavailable: Mykhailo Mudryk, Wilson Odobert, Xavi Simons (injured), Richarlison (manager's decision)
Form and Line-up Aston Villa
On 16 September, Aston Villa beat Coventry 3:1 in the EFL Cup thanks to a Tammy Abraham brace and a Ross Barkley goal. Unai Emery was pleased with the execution of the game plan and noted the useful contributions of Tyrone Mings and John McGinn.
Away from home in the league, Aston Villa have kept their discipline and maintained the rhythm of the game: they have been caught offside no more than twice in 9 of their last 10 Premier League away matches, although their opponents have had at least four shots on target in 8 of those 10 matches.
- Aston Villa have taken no more than five corners in 8 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
- In 8 of their last 10 Premier League away matches, Aston Villa have received no more than two yellow cards.
- At least 21 fouls in total have been recorded in 8 of Aston Villa's last 10 Premier League matches.
Probable Aston Villa line-up (4-2-3-1): Zion Suzuki, Victor Lindelof, Tyrone Mings, Matteo Ruggeri, Matty Cash, John McGinn, Ross Barkley, Boubacar Kamara, Emiliano Buendia, George Hemmings, Nicolas Jackson
Unavailable: Amadou Onana, Brian Mago, Ian Maatsen, Leon Goretzka, Pau Torres (injured)
Team chances
Tottenham to win at 1.97 corresponds to a no-margin probability of 48.4% and fair odds of 2.07. The draw at 3.65 is assessed at 26.1% with fair odds of 3.83, while Aston Villa to win at 3.75 is assessed at 25.4% with fair odds of 3.93. Tottenham have the edge, but the draw and an Aston Villa victory are similarly rated.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham to win | 1.97 | 2.07 | 48.4% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.83 | 26.1% |
| Aston Villa to win | 3.75 | 3.93 | 25.4% |
Total goals prediction
For the 2.5-goal total, Over at 1.80 is quoted shorter than Under at 2.00. At the 3.5 line, the preference is even clearer for Under at 1.38 versus Over at 2.80.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| 3.5 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
Handicap prediction
At the -1.5 handicap line, Tottenham (-1.5) are at 3.40 and Aston Villa (-1.5) at 6.70. At the 1.5 line, Tottenham (1.5) at 1.06 are quoted shorter than Aston Villa (1.5) at 1.27. At -1, Tottenham (-1) are available at 2.70 and Aston Villa (-1) at 5.90; at 1, Tottenham (1) are at 1.08 and Aston Villa (1) at 1.40. On the zero handicap, Tottenham (0) at 1.47 are quoted shorter than Aston Villa (0) at 2.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.40 | -1.5 | 6.70 |
| 1.06 | 1.5 | 1.27 |
| 2.70 | -1 | 5.90 |
| 1.08 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.47 | 0 | 2.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.70 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.10. The latter option assumes that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
29/100
|
29/100
|
4/5
|
| 888sport |
29/100
|
3/10
|
3/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Tottenham — 1.5 goals, Aston Villa — 1 goal.
Tottenham team total
Tottenham team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.16 is quoted significantly shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 4.40. At the line of 1, Over 1 at 1.30 is preferred to Under 1 at 3.15, while at 1.5 the odds are close: Under 1.5 — 1.82, Over 1.5 — 1.93. At the line of 2, Under 2 at 1.37 is quoted shorter than Over 2 at 2.85.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.40 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 3.15 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.82 | 1.5 | 1.93 |
| 1.37 | 2 | 2.85 |
Aston Villa team total
Aston Villa team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.40 is rated higher than Under 0.5 goals at 2.70. At the line of 1, the odds are almost level: Under 1 — 1.90, Over 1 — 1.85. At 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.40 is clearly preferred to Over 1.5 at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.75 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Sam Barrott (England)
Matches — 26 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 19;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.6;
Matches with red cards — 1 of 26;
Matches with penalties — 7 of 26.
