Odds Overview
Brighton are clear favourites: the away win is priced at 1.60, while the draw is 3.95 and the home win is 5.30. In the main totals market, over 2.5 goals at 1.75 looks preferable to under 2.5 goals at 2.00. In the handicap markets, there is considerably more confidence in Tromso (+1.5) at 1.45 than Brighton (-1.5) at 2.55; on the 0 line, Brighton Draw No Bet is 1.22 versus 3.70 for Tromso Draw No Bet.
Why Brighton Are Favourites for the Match
Brighton go into the match as clear favourites: an away win is priced at 1.60, a Tromso victory is available at 5.30, and the draw is 3.95.
The English club are significantly superior to their opponents in quality, even taking into account that this will be their first competitive match of the 2026/27 season after pre-season preparations.
Tromso have a congested schedule: the match against Brighton will be the Norwegian club's third in eight days, which could make it more difficult to defend against fresher opponents.
The transfer value of Brighton's players is more than 40 times higher than that of Tromso's squad — EUR 620 million versus EUR 15 million.
Form and Line-up Tromso
In Europa League qualifying, Tromso lost twice to Hradec (0:1, 1:3), but the Norwegian club had no problems in Conference League qualifying — winning 5:0 and 2:1.
The team are third in the Norwegian league, but lost 2:3 to Molde in a high-scoring match in the last round.
Key numbers:
Tromso have registered at least 5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
In 19 of Tromso's last 20 home matches in all competitions, their opponents have scored no more than 1 goal.
In 9 of Tromso's last 10 home matches in all competitions, their opponents have been caught offside no more than once.
Probable Tromso line-up (3-5-2): Jakob Haugaard — Isak Vadebu, Leon Hyn, Mathias Tonnessen — Isak Dahlqvist, David Edvardsson, Ruben Yttergard Jenssen, Lars Olden Larsen, Alexander Varnerid — Troy Nyhammer, Heine Asen Larsen.
Absentees: Leo Cornic (injured), Vetle Skjaervik, Jakub Haugaard (both doubtful).
Form and Line-up Brighton
The English club concluded pre-season with a 1:0 home win over Bologna and now play their first competitive match of the new season. Before that, the Seagulls comfortably beat Roma (3:0) and defeated Strasbourg (4:3) after 120 minutes.
Key numbers:
At least 3 goals have been scored in 8 of Brighton's last 9 matches in all competitions.
At least 10 corners have been taken in 9 of Brighton's last 10 away matches in all competitions.
Fewer than 4 yellow cards have been shown in five consecutive matches.
Probable Brighton line-up (4-4-1-1): Bart Verbruggen — Mats Wieffer, Luka Vuskovic, Olivier Boscagli, Ferdi Kadioglu — Diego Gomez, Pascal Gross, Yasin Ayari, Maxim De Cuyper — Jack Hinshelwood — Georginio Rutter.
Absentees: Evan Ferguson, Yankuba Minteh, Kaoru Mitoma, Stefanos Tzimas (all injured), Carlos Baleba, Matt O'Riley (both doubtful).
Team Chances
The margin-free estimate gives the home win a 17.7% probability at odds of 5.30 and fair odds of 5.65, while the draw has a 23.7% probability at 3.95 and 4.21. The away win has a 58.6% probability: odds of 1.60 versus a margin-free estimate of 1.71.
Outcome | Average odds | Average margin-free odds | Margin-free probability |
Tromso to win | 5.30 | 5.65 | 17.7% |
Draw | 3.95 | 4.21 | 23.7% |
Brighton to win | 1.60 | 1.71 | 58.6% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, over 2.5 goals is 1.75 versus 2.00 for under 2.5 goals, indicating a more likely high-scoring scenario. On 3.5, the relationship is reversed: under 3.5 goals is 1.42, while over 3.5 goals is 2.65.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
3.5 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Handicap Prediction
Brighton (-1.5) is offered at 2.55, while Tromso (+1.5) is 1.45. On the -1 line, Brighton (-1) is 1.97, whereas Tromso (+1) is available at 1.77. Finally, Tromso Draw No Bet is priced at 3.70 versus 1.22 for Brighton Draw No Bet.
Home | Handicap | Away |
— | -1.5 | 2.55 |
1.45 | 1.5 | — |
— | -1 | 1.97 |
1.77 | 1 | — |
3.70 | 0 | 1.22 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is 1.75, while both teams to score - No is 2.00. The market rates the scenario in which both teams score slightly more highly, while the No option means that at least one of them will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.75 |
No | 2.00 |
Double Chance Prediction
The shortest-priced double chance is X2 at 1.14. The 12 bet is 1.23 and 1X is 2.25, so Brighton's chances of losing are rated considerably lower than the other outcomes.
1X | 12 | X2 |
2.25 | 1.23 | 1.14 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Tromso — 0.5 goals, Brighton — 1.5 goals.
Tromso Team Total
Tromso: over 0.5 goals is 1.53 versus 2.35 for under 0.5 goals. On the 1-goal line, under 1 is rated lower at 1.53, while over 1 is 2.35; on 1.5, under 1.5 is 1.25 versus 3.50 for over 1.5.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.35 | 0.5 | 1.53 |
1.53 | 1 | 2.35 |
1.25 | 1.5 | 3.50 |
Brighton Team Total
Brighton: over 0.5 goals is offered at 1.09 versus 5.80 for under 0.5 goals, and over 1 is 1.17 versus 4.20 for under 1. On the 1.5 line, over 1.5 is 1.65 and under 1.5 is 2.10; on the 2-goal line, under 2 is 1.58 versus 2.25 for over 2.
Under | Team total | Over |
5.80 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
4.20 | 1 | 1.17 |
2.10 | 1.5 | 1.65 |
1.58 | 2 | 2.25 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Edgars Malcevs (Latvia)
Matches – 12 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 30;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows – 4;
Matches with red cards – 3 of 12;
Matches with penalties – 6 of 12.
