Odds overview
Ukraine are favourites: a Ukraine win is available at around 1.88, a draw at 3.35 and a Northern Ireland win at 4.60. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.60 is clearly favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.35. For the handicap (0) market, Ukraine at 1.35 have shorter odds than Northern Ireland at 3.00.
Why Ukraine are favourites
Bookmaker Fonbet make the nominal hosts favourites: Ukraine are available at 1.88 to win (an implied probability of almost 51% before accounting for the margin), with the draw at 3.35 and a Northern Ireland win at 4.60.
- Both teams have four points after two rounds, with one win and one draw each, but the nominal hosts have greater quality and international experience.
- Away wins have been extremely rare for Northern Ireland in the UEFA Nations League: they have failed to win 9 of their last 10 away matches in the competition.
Form and Line-up Ukraine
Ukraine began the competition with a win over Hungary (1:0) and an away draw against Georgia (0:0). Against Georgia, they spent much of the first half defending and relying on quick, direct attacks, then closed off the routes into their penalty area effectively in the second half.
Ahead of this match, Ukraine have yet to concede in the competition, and their disciplined defending is reflected in the foul statistics — in 9 of their last 10 matches in the competition, Ukraine's opponents committed fewer than 13.5 fouls.
- Ukraine have scored no more than two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 8 of Ukraine's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- The teams combined for fewer than 9.5 shots on target in 8 of Ukraine's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Anatoliy Trubin, Valeriy Bondar, Eduard Sarapiy, Taras Mykhavko, Oleksandr Pikhalyonok, Yegor Nazaryna, Alexandr Zubkov, Maksym Khlan, Bogdan Mihaylichenko, Vladyslav Vanat, Matviy Ponomarenko
Form and Line-up Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland have made an identical start in terms of points, beating Georgia away (1:0) and drawing at home with Hungary (0:0). They have called up many young players, giving their squad a younger profile for the September–October period.
Away from home, the team typically play cautiously and do not force the issue: they attempted fewer than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches, while their opponents have yet to be caught offside in the current campaign.
- Under 2.5 goals has occurred in 9 of Northern Ireland's last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Northern Ireland have scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- The two teams combined for no more than 25.5 shot attempts in each of Northern Ireland's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Pierce Charles, Tom Atcheson, Ruairi McConville, Kieran Brown, Trai Hume, Shea Charles, Ethan Galbraith, Justin Devenny, Patrick Kelly, Isaac Price, Jamie Donley
The teams' chances
For a Ukraine win, the average odds are 1.88, the fair odds are 1.97 and the probability is 50.8%. The corresponding figures are 3.35, 3.51 and 28.5% for a draw, and 4.60, 4.82 and 20.7% for a Northern Ireland win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine win | 1.88 | 1.97 | 50.8% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.51 | 28.5% |
| Northern Ireland win | 4.60 | 4.82 | 20.7% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals at 1.60 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 goals at 2.35. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals is available at 1.73 compared with 2.05 for Under 2 goals, while at 3.5 the market clearly favours Under 3.5 goals at 1.20 over Over 3.5 goals at 4.20.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
| 2 | 2.05 | 1.73 |
| 3.5 | 1.20 | 4.20 |
Handicap prediction
Northern Ireland (+1.5) at 1.23 are clearly favoured over Ukraine (-1.5) at 3.75. At the 1-goal handicap line, Northern Ireland (+1) are available at 1.40 compared with 2.90 for Ukraine (-1), while Ukraine (0) at 1.35 have shorter odds than Northern Ireland (0) at 3.00.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.75 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.23 | |
| 2.90 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.40 | |
| 1.35 | 0 | 3.00 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No at 1.70 has shorter odds than Both teams to score – Yes at 2.10: it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.10 |
| No | 1.70 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/5
|
3/10
|
91/100
|
| 888sport |
11/50
|
33/100
|
17/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Ukraine — 1.5 goals; Northern Ireland — 0.5 goals.
Ukraine team total goals
Ukraine team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.22 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 3.80, while Over 1 is available at 1.47 compared with 2.60 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.65 has shorter odds than Over 1.5 at 2.20; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.23 and Over 2 is 3.70.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.80 | 0.5 | 1.22 |
| 2.60 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 1.65 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.23 | 2 | 3.70 |
Northern Ireland team total goals
Northern Ireland team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.68 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 2.12. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is available at 1.42 compared with 2.65 for Over 1, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is 1.20 compared with 4.15 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12 | 0.5 | 1.68 |
| 1.42 | 1 | 2.65 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.15 |
