Ukraine vs Northern Ireland: prediction & betting odds 2 October 2026

Odds overview

Ukraine are favourites: a Ukraine win is available at around 1.88, the draw at 3.35 and a Northern Ireland win at 4.60. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.60 is clearly favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.35. At a handicap of 0, Ukraine Draw No Bet at 1.35 has shorter odds than Northern Ireland Draw No Bet at 3.00.

Why Ukraine are favourites

Bookmaker Fonbet makes the nominal hosts favourites: a Ukraine win is offered at 1.88 (almost a 51% probability excluding the margin), the draw at 3.35 and a Northern Ireland win at 4.60.

• Both teams have four points after two matches (one win and one draw each), but the nominal hosts have greater quality and international experience.
• Northern Ireland rarely win away in the UEFA Nations League: they failed to win 9 of their last 10 away matches in the competition.

Form and Line-up Ukraine

Ukraine began the competition with a win over Hungary (1:0) and an away draw with Georgia (0:0). Against Georgia, they spent much of the first half playing from a defensive base and relying on quick, direct attacks, then effectively closed off the approaches to their penalty area in the second half.

Ahead of this match, Ukraine have yet to concede in the competition. Their disciplined defence is also reflected in the foul statistics — in 9 of their last 10 matches in the competition, Ukraine's opponents committed fewer than 13.5 fouls.

• Ukraine scored no more than two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Under 3.5 goals landed in 8 of Ukraine's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
• In 8 of Ukraine's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches, the teams combined for fewer than 9.5 shots on target.

Probable Ukraine line-up (3-5-2): Anatoliy Trubin, Valeriy Bondar, Eduard Sarapiy, Taras Mykhavko, Oleksandr Pikhalyonok, Yegor Nazaryna, Alexandr Zubkov, Maksym Khlan, Bogdan Mihaylichenko, Vladyslav Vanat, Matviy Ponomarenko

Form and Line-up Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland have made an identical start in terms of points, beating Georgia away (1:0) and drawing at home with Hungary (0:0). They have called up many young players, making the squad younger for the September–October period.

Away from home, Northern Ireland usually play cautiously and do not force the pace: they attempted fewer than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches, while their opponents have yet to be caught offside in the current campaign.

• Under 2.5 goals occurred in 9 of Northern Ireland's last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Northern Ireland scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• In all 10 of Northern Ireland's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches, the two teams combined for no more than 25.5 attempted shots.

Probable Northern Ireland line-up (3-4-2-1): Pierce Charles, Tom Atcheson, Ruairi McConville, Kieran Brown, Trai Hume, Shea Charles, Ethan Galbraith, Justin Devenny, Patrick Kelly, Isaac Price, Jamie Donley

The teams' chances

For a Ukraine win, the average odds are 1.88, the fair odds are 1.97 and the probability is 50.8%. The corresponding figures are 3.35, 3.51 and 28.5% for the draw, and 4.60, 4.82 and 20.7% for a Northern Ireland win.

Total goals betting

Under 2.5 goals at 1.60 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 goals at 2.35. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 is available at 1.73 versus 2.05 for Under 2, while at 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is clearly favoured at 1.20 versus 4.20 for Over 3.5.

Handicap betting

Northern Ireland (+1.5) at 1.23 are clearly favoured over Ukraine (-1.5) at 3.75. At the 1-goal handicap line, Northern Ireland (+1) are available at 1.40 versus 2.90 for Ukraine (-1), while Ukraine Draw No Bet, with a handicap of 0, at 1.35 has shorter odds than Northern Ireland Draw No Bet, also with a handicap of 0, at 3.00.

Both teams to score betting

Both teams to score – No at 1.70 has shorter odds than Both teams to score – Yes at 2.10: at least one team is considered more likely to fail to score.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	33/100	9/25	31/50
William Hill	11/50	9/25	4/5
888sport	3/10	2/5	3/5

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team total goals betting

For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Ukraine — 1.5 goals; Northern Ireland — 0.5 goals.

Ukraine team total goals

Ukraine's team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.22 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 3.80, while Over 1 is available at 1.47 versus 2.60 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 has shorter odds at 1.65 than Over 1.5 at 2.20; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.23 and Over 2 is 3.70.

Northern Ireland team total goals

Northern Ireland's team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.68 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 2.12. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is available at 1.42 versus 2.65 for Over 1, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is 1.20 versus 4.15 for Over 1.5.