Odds overview
Sunderland are clear favourites: a Sunderland win is available at 1.37, compared with 5.40 for a draw and 7.40 for a Torrense win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.51 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.41. On the 1.5-goal handicap, Torrense are offered at 1.75 and Sunderland at 2.00 — the market gives the home side's option a slightly better chance.
Why Sunderland are favourites
Bookmakers offer odds of 1.37 on a Sunderland win, compared with 7.40 on Torrense. A draw is quoted at 5.40.
• The English club play in a more prestigious league and opened their UEFA Europa League campaign with a win without conceding.
• Torrense play not only in a less prestigious league in Portugal, but in its second division, where they sit 15th after seven rounds.
Form and Line-up Torrense
Torrense beat Lillestrøm 2:1 in their opening UEFA Europa League match, scoring once before half-time and once after. The Norwegian league is rated below the Portuguese league, so this was not a huge shock, although it was certainly unexpected. Since the international break, the team from Torres Vedras have played just one domestic league match, losing 0:1 to Tondela.
- In nine of Torrense's last 10 home matches across all competitions, their opponents had fewer than 4.5 shots on target.
- There were fewer than 6.5 yellow cards in nine of Torrense's last 10 home matches.
- Under 11.5 corners landed in eight of Torrense's last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable Torrense line-up (4-2-3-1): Adriel, David Bruno, Xavi Vázquez, Mohamed Ali Diadié, Volnei, Amine Oudrhiri, Alejandro Alfaro, Dany Jean, Manu Pozo, Jorge Aguirre, Malik Abubakari
Absentees: Nuha Jatta (suspended)
Form and Line-up Sunderland
Sunderland opened their UEFA Europa League league-phase campaign with a 1:0 win over AZ Alkmaar without conceding: Robin Roefs and his team-mates kept the visitors from converting any of their three goalscoring chances. Away from home, the Black Cats often play more cautiously: there were fewer than 10.5 corners in eight of their last 10 away matches, while their opponents committed more than 10.5 fouls in eight of those 10 games.
- There were fewer than 3.5 goals in nine of Sunderland's last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Sunderland scored fewer than 1.5 goals in eight of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- There were more than 21.5 fouls in eight of Sunderland's last 10 matches.
Probable Sunderland line-up (4-2-3-1): Robin Roefs, Nordi Mukiele, Trai Hume, Kevin Danso, Omar Alderete, Reinildo Mandava, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Enzo Le Fée, Nilson Angulo, Wilson Isidor
Absentees: Dan Ballard, Brian Brobbey, Romaine Mundle, Habib Diarra (injured)
The teams' chances
A Sunderland win has average odds of 1.37, with fair odds of 1.44 and a probability of 69.5%. The corresponding figures are 5.40, 5.67 and 17.6% for a draw, and 7.40, 7.77 and 12.9% for a Torrense win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torrense win | 7.40 | 7.77 | 12.9% |
| Draw | 5.40 | 5.67 | 17.6% |
| Sunderland win | 1.37 | 1.44 | 69.5% |
Total goals betting analysis
On the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.51 is considered much more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.41. On the two-goal line, Over 2 goals is offered at 1.21 versus 3.85 for Under 2 goals, while on the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.58 is favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.26.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.41 | 1.51 |
| 2 | 3.85 | 1.21 |
| 3.5 | 1.58 | 2.26 |
Handicap betting analysis
On the 1.5-goal handicap line, Torrense are offered at 1.75 and Sunderland at 2.00. On the one-goal line, Sunderland have the shorter odds at 1.57, compared with 2.28 for Torrense.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | 1.5 | 2.00 |
| 2.28 | 1 | 1.57 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/4
|
7/50
|
1/20
|
| William Hill |
13/5
|
3/20
|
1/20
|
| 888sport |
13/5
|
3/20
|
1/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting analysis
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Torrense — 0.5 goals; Sunderland — 2 goals.
Torrense team goals
Torrense team goals: on the 0.5-goal line, Over 0.5 is offered at 1.59 versus 2.24 for Under 0.5. On the one-goal line, Under 1 at 1.53 is favoured over Over 1 at 2.37, while on the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 1.23 compared with 3.65 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.24 | 0.5 | 1.59 |
| 1.53 | 1 | 2.37 |
| 1.23 | 1.5 | 3.65 |
Sunderland team goals
Sunderland team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.07 has much shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 6.20. On the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is offered at 1.40 versus 2.73 for Under 1.5; on the two-goal line, Over 2 is at 1.70 and Under 2 at 2.05. On the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 at 1.60 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.22.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.20 | 0.5 | 1.07 |
| 2.73 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
| 2.05 | 2 | 1.70 |
| 1.60 | 2.5 | 2.22 |
