Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, the home win has a slight edge at 2.20: the away win is available at 3.10 and the draw at 3.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 at 1.62 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 at 2.30. In the handicap market, Home Draw No Bet at 1.65 is quoted lower than Away Draw No Bet at 2.25, also pointing to an advantage for the hosts.
Why Union Berlin are favourites for the match
Bookmakers regard the hosts as favourites: a Union win is available at 2.20, the draw at 3.70 and a Schalke win at 3.10.
Union are playing at home, while Schalke have collected just one point after two rounds, with a goal difference of 0–3.
Schalke are near the bottom of the league table for attacking output, having yet to score a goal.
Form and Line-up Union Berlin
Head coach Mauro Lustrinelli stressed the need for the right response after the recent setback, despite a short training week. At the start of the season, the Berlin side have conceded an average of 3.5 goals per match, but in 9 of their last 10 home matches they have restricted opponents to no more than five shots on target.
Key numbers:
Union have gone Over 2.5 goals in eight of their last Bundesliga matches
In 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches, Union have had no more than two offsides
In 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches, Union and their opponents have taken no more than 10 corners
Probable Union Berlin line-up (4-4-2): Frederik Ronnow, Josip Juranovic, Zeno Van Den Bosch, Felix Uduokhai, Tom Rothe, Michel Aebischer, Aljoscha Kemlein, Rani Khedira, Livan Burcu, Emmanuel Latte Lath, Marin Ljubicic
Form and Line-up Schalke
After a goalless draw with Bayern, goalkeeper Loris Karius received the man-of-the-match award and emphasised the team's collective performance. However, Schalke find it difficult to control matches away from home: in 9 of their last 10 away matches they have not had more corners than their opponents, while in 9 of 10 matches overall they have had fewer offsides.
Key numbers:
At least 9 corners have been taken in 8 of Schalke's last 10 Bundesliga away matches
In 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches, Schalke have committed no more than 11 fouls
In 8 of their last 10 away matches, Schalke have lost the corner count
Probable Schalke line-up (3-4-3): Loris Karius, Timo Becker, Nikola Katic, Hasan Kurucay, Junior Dina Ebimbe, Satoshi Tanaka, Soufiane El-Faouzi, Robin Gosens, Dejan Ljubicic, Moussa Sylla, Adil Aouchiche
Team chances
The home win is available at 2.20, with fair odds of 2.30 and a probability of 43.4%. The figures for the draw are 3.70, 3.88 and 25.8%, while those for the away win are 3.10, 3.25 and 30.8% respectively: the hosts look like favourites, but an away win is more likely than a draw.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Union Berlin to win | 2.20 | 2.30 | 43.4% |
Draw | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
Schalke to win | 3.10 | 3.25 | 30.8% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.62 is quoted considerably lower than Under 2.5 at 2.30. At the 3.5-goal mark, the balance changes: Under 3.5 is at 1.55 and Over 3.5 at 2.40.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.30 | 1.62 |
3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap prediction
Home handicap -1.5 at 3.60 is more attractively priced than away handicap -1.5 at 5.70. At the 1.5 handicap, home handicap +1.5 is quoted lower — 1.09 compared with 1.25 for away handicap +1.5; at the -1 line, home handicap -1 is at 2.95 compared with 4.90 for away handicap -1. For the 1 handicap, the odds are 1.12 for home handicap +1 and 1.35 for away handicap +1, while on the zero line they are 1.65 for Home Draw No Bet and 2.25 for Away Draw No Bet.
Home | Handicap | Away |
3.60 | -1.5 | 5.70 |
1.09 | 1.5 | 1.25 |
2.95 | -1 | 4.90 |
1.12 | 1 | 1.35 |
1.65 | 0 | 2.25 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.52 is quoted considerably lower than Both teams to score - No at 2.45, so both teams are expected to score; the latter option means that at least one of them will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.52 |
No | 2.45 |
Double chance prediction
The lowest odds in the double chance market are for 12 — 1.30. 1X is available at 1.40 and X2 at 1.68, so the no-draw option is considered more likely than either outcome including one of the teams.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.40 | 1.30 | 1.68 |
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Union Berlin — 1.5 goals, Schalke — 1.5 goals.
Union Berlin team total
Union Berlin team total: Under 0.5 is at 4.60, Over 0.5 at 1.14; at the 1-goal line, the odds are 3.30 and 1.28 respectively. At 1.5, the odds are almost equal: Under 1.5 is at 1.90 and Over 1.5 at 1.85. At the 2-goal mark, Under 2 is available at 1.42 and Over 2 at 2.65.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.60 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
3.30 | 1 | 1.28 |
1.90 | 1.5 | 1.85 |
1.42 | 2 | 2.65 |
Schalke team total
Schalke team total: Under 0.5 is available at 3.60 and Over 0.5 at 1.25; at the 1-goal line, the odds are 2.50 and 1.50 respectively. Under 1.5 at 1.60 is quoted lower than Over 1.5 at 2.25, while at the 2-goal mark the difference is even more pronounced: Under 2 is at 1.18 and Over 2 at 4.10.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.60 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
2.50 | 1 | 1.50 |
1.60 | 1.5 | 2.25 |
1.18 | 2 | 4.10 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Timo Gerach (Germany)
Matches — 10 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.2;
Matches with red cards — 2 out of 10;
Matches with penalties — 6 out of 10.
