Odds overview
Athletic Bilbao look the favourites at 2.20 to win, while a Valencia win and a draw are both around 3.35. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.77 against 2.05 for Over 2.5 goals, giving a slight edge to a low-scoring match. On the handicap line of 0, Athletic Bilbao (0) at 1.60 are favoured over Valencia (0) at 2.35.
Why Athletic Bilbao are favourites
An Athletic Bilbao win is available at 2.20, while bookmakers offer identical odds of 3.35 for a Valencia win and a draw.
- Athletic Bilbao have taken 8 points from 6 matches, with a goal difference of 7:6, and concede an average of just one goal per game — the third-best defensive record in La Liga.
- Valencia have taken just five points from eight La Liga rounds and sit 19th in the table.
- Athletic Bilbao have lost to Valencia only three times in their last 11 meetings.
Form and Line-up Valencia
On 11 October, Valencia drew 2:2 away to Racing — Javier Aguirre's first match as head coach. It was only their fifth point of the season; before that, they had beaten Alavés (1:0) and drawn with Celta (0:0). Valencia lost all their other matches.
- Valencia have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- Valencia have had more shots than their opponents in 8 of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- There have been fewer than 5.5 yellow cards in Valencia's last 10 home La Liga matches.
Probable line-up (5-4-1): Stole Dimitrievski, Pablo Maffeo, Justin de Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby, Pepelu, José Gayà, Dani Raba, Filip Ugrinic, Guido Rodríguez, Javi Guerra, Hugo Duro.
Absentees: Sergi Canós, José Copete, Diego Lopez, Dimitri Foulquier, Umar Sadiq, Luis Rioja (all injured).
Form and Line-up Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao beat Real Sociedad (1:0) in a friendly during the break without their international players, and have taken eight points from their last four La Liga matches. Postponements have left them with only six matches played by mid-October, affecting their match rhythm.
- Athletic Bilbao are unbeaten in 5 consecutive matches.
- Athletic Bilbao's opponents have committed fewer than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 away La Liga matches.
- There have been fewer than 5.5 yellow cards in 9 of Athletic Bilbao's last 10 away La Liga matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón, Jesús Areso, Yeray Álvarez, Aitor Paredes, Yuri Berchiche, Iñigo Galarreta, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Robert Navarro, Peio Canales, Álex Berenguer, Iñaki Williams.
Absentees: Unai Egiluz, Nico Williams, Oihan Sancet (all injured).
Teams' chances
An Athletic Bilbao win is the most likely outcome: odds of 2.20, fair odds of 2.31 and a probability of 43.2%. A Valencia win and a draw have identical figures: odds of 3.35, fair odds of 3.52 and a probability of 28.4% each.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to win | 3.35 | 3.52 | 28.4% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.52 | 28.4% |
| Athletic Bilbao to win | 2.20 | 2.31 | 43.2% |
Total goals market
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.77 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.05. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals has an even clearer edge at 1.30, compared with 3.25 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.77 | 2.05 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.25 |
Handicap market
Athletic Bilbao (-1.5) at 4.15 have shorter odds than Valencia (-1.5) at 6.60. At +1.5, Athletic Bilbao (+1.5) are available at 1.06 against 1.20 for Valencia (+1.5); on the -1 line, the odds are 3.20 for Athletic Bilbao (-1) and 5.70 for Valencia (-1). At +1, Athletic Bilbao (+1) are offered at 1.09 and Valencia (+1) at 1.30, while at 0, Athletic Bilbao (0) at 1.60 are favoured over Valencia (0) at 2.35.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.60 | -1.5 | 4.15 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 1.06 |
| 5.70 | -1 | 3.20 |
| 1.30 | 1 | 1.09 |
| 2.35 | 0 | 1.60 |
Both teams to score market
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.80, slightly shorter than Both teams to score — No at 1.95: the market marginally favours both sides scoring over at least one side failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 |
| No | 1.95 |
Team goals markets
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Valencia — 1 goal, Athletic Bilbao — 1.5 goals.
Valencia team goals
Valencia team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.40 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.70. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 and Over 1 have identical odds of 1.88. At 1.5, Under 1.5 is shorter at 1.35, compared with 2.95 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.88 | 1 | 1.88 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Athletic Bilbao team goals
Athletic Bilbao team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.22 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.80, while Over 1 at 1.47 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.60. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 1.62 against 2.20 for Over 1.5; at 2 goals, the odds are 1.25 for Under 2 and 3.65 for Over 2.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.80 | 0.5 | 1.22 |
| 2.60 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 1.62 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.65 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Adrián Cordero (Spain)
Matches — 22 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;
Matches with red cards — 2 of 22;
Matches with penalties — 9 of 22.
