Odds overview
Athletic Bilbao are the favourites: an away win is offered at 2.20, while a home win and a draw are both around 3.35. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.77 against 2.05 for Over 2.5, giving the lower-scoring outcome a slight edge. On the handicap line of 0, Athletic Bilbao (0) at 1.60 are favoured over Valencia (0) at 2.35.
Why Athletic Bilbao are favourites
Athletic are offered at 2.20 to win, while bookmakers quote the same odds of 3.35 for a Valencia win and a draw.
- Athletic have taken 8 points from 6 matches, with a goal difference of 7:6, and concede an average of just one goal per game — the 3rd-best defensive record in La Liga.
- Valencia have taken just five points from eight rounds of La Liga and sit 19th in the table.
- Athletic have lost to Valencia only three times in their last 11 meetings.
Form and Line-up Valencia
On 11 October, Valencia drew 2:2 away to Racing — Javier Aguirre's first match as head coach. It was only the fifth point of the season for Valencia, who had previously beaten Alavés (1:0) and drawn with Celta (0:0). They lost all their other matches.
- Valencia received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in each of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
- Valencia had more shots than their opponents in 8 of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
- There were fewer than 5.5 yellow cards in each of Valencia's last 10 La Liga home matches.
Probable line-up (5-4-1): Stole Dimitrievski, Pablo Maffeo, Justin de Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby, Pepelu, José Gayà, Dani Raba, Filip Ugrinic, Guido Rodríguez, Javi Guerra, Hugo Duro.
Absentees: Sergi Canós, José Copete, Diego Lopez, Dimitri Foulquier, Umar Sadiq, Luis Rioja (all injured).
Form and Line-up Athletic Bilbao
During the break, Athletic beat Real Sociedad (1:0) in a friendly without their international players, and they have taken eight points from their last four La Liga matches. Postponements have disrupted their schedule, leaving them with just six matches played by mid-October, which affects their playing rhythm.
- Athletic are unbeaten in 5 consecutive matches.
- Athletic's opponents committed fewer than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
- There were fewer than 5.5 yellow cards in 9 of Athletic's last 10 La Liga away matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón, Jesús Areso, Yeray Álvarez, Aitor Paredes, Yuri Berchiche, Iñigo Galarreta, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Robert Navarro, Peio Canales, Álex Berenguer, Iñaki Williams.
Absentees: Unai Egiluz, Nico Williams, Oihan Sancet (all injured).
Both teams' chances
An away win is the most likely outcome: odds of 2.20, fair odds of 2.31 and a probability of 43.2%. A home win and a draw have identical figures: odds of 3.35, fair odds of 3.52 and a probability of 28.4% each.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to win | 3.35 | 3.52 | 28.4% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.52 | 28.4% |
| Athletic Bilbao to win | 2.20 | 2.31 | 43.2% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is favoured at 1.77 over Over 2.5 at 2.05. The advantage for Under 3.5 is more pronounced at the 3.5-goal line — 1.30 against 3.25 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.77 | 2.05 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.25 |
Handicap prediction
Athletic (-1.5) are shorter at 4.15 than Valencia (-1.5) at 6.60. On the 1.5 handicap, Athletic (1.5) are quoted at 1.06 against 1.20 for Valencia (1.5); on the -1 line, it is 3.20 for Athletic (-1) and 5.70 for Valencia (-1). For a handicap of 1, the odds are 1.09 for Athletic (1) and 1.30 for Valencia (1), while at handicap 0, Athletic (0) at 1.60 are favoured over Valencia (0) at 2.35.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.60 | -1.5 | 4.15 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 1.06 |
| 5.70 | -1 | 3.20 |
| 1.30 | 1 | 1.09 |
| 2.35 | 0 | 1.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.80, slightly shorter than Both teams to score — No at 1.95: the market gives a slight edge to both teams scoring over a scenario in which at least one fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 |
| No | 1.95 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
67/100
|
33/100
|
3/10
|
| 888sport |
67/100
|
3/10
|
3/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team total goals lines for this match: Valencia — 1 goal, Athletic Bilbao — 1.5 goals.
Valencia team total goals
Valencia team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.40 is a much shorter option than Under 0.5 at 2.70. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 and Over 1 both have odds of 1.88. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is shorter at 1.35 against 2.95 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.88 | 1 | 1.88 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Athletic Bilbao team total goals
Athletic Bilbao team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.22 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.80, while Over 1 at 1.47 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.60. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is offered at 1.62 against 2.20 for Over 1.5; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.25 and Over 2 is 3.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.80 | 0.5 | 1.22 |
| 2.60 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 1.62 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.65 |
