Odds overview
Barcelona are clear favourites: an away win is available at 1.35, while a home win is 8.00 and the draw is 5.60. Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 at 2.70. The handicap odds are close, with Barcelona (-1.5) at 1.88 and Valencia (+1.5) at 1.92; Barcelona (-1) at 1.48 is preferred to Valencia (+1) at 2.55, while on the level line Barcelona Draw No Bet is 1.10 compared with 5.40 for Valencia Draw No Bet.
Why Barcelona are favourites
Barcelona to win is available at 1.35, the draw at 5.60 and Valencia to win at 8.00. The arguments for this assessment are:
- The Catalans have made a strong start to the season and lead the league for goals scored, averaging four per game. They thrashed Rayo Vallecano 5:2 in the last round — the team are in form.
- Valencia are still experiencing serious attacking problems — they have scored only one goal, joint-bottom in the league. They lost 1:3 to Deportivo in their previous match and have not scored at home at all this season.
- Valencia's first-choice striker Umar Sadiq is out injured, and without him the hosts' attack becomes even more predictable and weaker.
Form and Line-up Valencia
At the start of the season, Valencia have been stuck in the lower reaches of the table, taking just one point from their first two home matches — drawing 0:0 with Celta and losing 0:1 to Betis. They then suffered a comprehensive 1:3 defeat to Deportivo in the last round.
Key numbers:
Valencia are winless in six consecutive matches.
Fewer than four yellow cards have been shown in 9 of the previous 10 matches.
Fewer than 10 corners have been taken in nine consecutive matches.
Probable Valencia line-up (5-4-1): Stole Dimitrievski — Luis Rioja, Arnau Martinez, Cesar Tarrega, Mouctar Diakhaby, Jesus Vazquez — Ryunosuke Sato, Filip Ugrinic, Pepelu, Javi Guerra — Hugo Duro.
Absentees: Pablo Maffeo, Guido Rodriguez, Umar Sadiq, Justin de Haas (all injured), Jose Copete, Dimitri Foulquier, Alberto Mari and Diego Lopez (all doubts).
Form and Line-up Barcelona
Barcelona began the league campaign with three straight wins, beating Elche 5:0 away and Athletic 2:0 and Rayo Vallecano 5:2 at home. The Catalans are without a natural No. 9 following the collapse of Julian Alvarez's transfer, but goals are evenly shared across their mobile attacking unit.
Key numbers:
Barcelona have won five consecutive matches.
The Catalans have scored first in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Fewer than four yellow cards have been shown in 10 consecutive matches.
Probable Barcelona line-up (4-2-3-1): Joan Garcia — Jules Kounde, Pau Cubarsi, Andreas Christensen, Xavi Espart — Marc Bernal, Pedri — Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Anthony Gordon — Raphinha.
Absentees: Roony Bardghji, Frenkie de Jong, Gavi (all injured).
Team chances
Barcelona to win is the main outcome: odds of 1.35, fair odds of 1.41 and a probability of 70.9%. The corresponding figures for the draw are 5.60, 5.85 and 17.1%, and for Valencia to win, 8.00, 8.35 and 12.0%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Valencia to win | 8.00 | 8.35 | 12.0% |
Draw | 5.60 | 5.85 | 17.1% |
Barcelona to win | 1.35 | 1.41 | 70.9% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 is rated considerably higher than Under 2.5 at 2.70. The balance is closer at 3.5: Under is 1.77 and Over is 2.05.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.70 | 1.40 |
3.5 | 1.77 | 2.05 |
Handicap prediction
Barcelona (-1.5) is available at 1.88 and Valencia (+1.5) at 1.92. On the -1 line, Barcelona are 1.48, while Valencia (+1) are 2.55. Barcelona Draw No Bet is 1.10, compared with 5.40 for Valencia Draw No Bet.
Home team | Handicap | Away team |
— | -1.5 | 1.88 |
1.92 | 1.5 | — |
— | -1 | 1.48 |
2.55 | 1 | — |
5.40 | 0 | 1.10 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.70 is preferred to Both teams to score - No at 2.10, which means at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.70 |
No | 2.10 |
Double chance prediction
The most likely double chance is X2 at 1.08; 12 is available at 1.14 and 1X at 3.20.
1X | 12 | X2 |
11/5
|
7/50
|
2/25
|
Team total prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Valencia — 0.5 goals, Barcelona — 2.5 goals.
Valencia team total
Valencia team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.60 is preferred to Under 0.5 goals at 2.25. On the line of 1, Under is 1.47 compared with 2.60 for Over, while at 1.5 it is 1.22 against 3.80.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.25 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
1.47 | 1 | 2.60 |
1.22 | 1.5 | 3.80 |
Barcelona team total
Barcelona team total: Over 2 goals at 1.55 is rated higher than Under 2 goals at 2.40. On the 2.5 line, Under is 1.73 and Over is 2.05; on the line of 3, Under is 1.38 compared with 2.80 for Over.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.40 | 2 | 1.55 |
1.73 | 2.5 | 2.05 |
1.38 | 3 | 2.80 |
