Odds overview
Villarreal are favourites in the 1X2 market: a Villarreal win is 2.17, compared with around 3.20 for Valencia and 3.65 for the draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. At handicap (0), Villarreal Draw No Bet at 1.60 is favoured over Valencia Draw No Bet at 2.30.
Why Villarreal are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: a Villarreal win is available at 2.17, a Valencia win at 3.20 and the draw at 3.65.
- Villarreal have lost only once in their last four league matches, while Valencia are in the La Liga relegation zone ahead of Matchday 10.
- The hosts' defensive problems are evident at home: Valencia concede an average of 1.8 goals per home league match.
- Villarreal are unbeaten in five consecutive meetings with Valencia.
Form and Line-up Valencia
Valencia drew 0:0 with Athletic Bilbao in their last league match, having previously drawn 2:2 with Racing Santander. The Bats have just six points and sit 19th in the La Liga table, with a goal difference of 6:15.
- Under 10.5 corners were recorded in eight of Valencia's last 10 home matches in La Liga.
- Valencia had over 11.5 shots in eight of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- Valencia received under 2.5 yellow cards in nine of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
Probable Valencia line-up (4-2-3-1): Stole Dimitrievski, Pablo Maffeo, César Tárrega, Mouctar Diakhaby, José Gayà, Pepelu, Guido Rodríguez, Dani Raba, Javi Guerra, Arnaut Danjuma, Hugo Duro.
Absentees: Sergi Canós, Diego Lopez and Umar Sadiq (all injured); Justin de Haas, José Copete and Dimitri Foulquier (all doubtful).
Form and Line-up Villarreal
Villarreal lost 3:4 to Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League despite leading 2:0. Before that, the Yellow Submarine drew 0:0 with Elche in La Liga, their second successive match without a win after a 0:1 defeat to Real Madrid.
- Over 8.5 corners were taken in eight of Villarreal's last 10 away matches in La Liga.
- Under 4.5 offsides were recorded in nine of Villarreal's last 10 away La Liga matches.
- Villarreal's opponents received over 1.5 yellow cards in nine of the club's last 10 away La Liga matches.
Probable Villarreal line-up (4-4-2): Péter Gulácsi, Alex Freeman, Juan Foyth, Logan Costa, Sergi Cardona, Ilias Akhomach, Santi Comesana, Carlos Macià, Tani Oluwaseyi, Ayoze Pérez, Alberto Moleiro.
Absentees: Nicolas Pépé, Carlos Romero and Nathan-Dylan Saliba (all doubtful).
Teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Valencia a 29.8% chance of winning: the average odds on a home win are 3.20, while the fair odds are 3.35. The draw has a 26.2% chance, with odds of 3.65 and fair odds of 3.82. Villarreal lead on 44.0%: the average odds on an away win are 2.17, compared with fair odds of 2.27.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia win | 3.20 | 3.35 | 29.8% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.82 | 26.2% |
| Villarreal win | 2.17 | 2.27 | 44.0% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 is considered more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. At 3.5 goals, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals at 1.45 is markedly shorter than Over 3.5 goals at 2.65.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.73 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
Valencia (-1.5) are offered at 5.60, compared with 3.60 for Villarreal (-1.5). At +1.5, Villarreal (+1.5) have shorter odds of 1.09, while Valencia (+1.5) are at 1.25. Villarreal (-1) at 2.95 are shorter than Valencia (-1) at 4.90; at +1, Villarreal (+1) are 1.13 compared with 1.35 for Valencia (+1). At handicap (0), Villarreal Draw No Bet at 1.60 are favoured over Valencia Draw No Bet at 2.30.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.60 | -1.5 | 3.60 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.09 |
| 4.90 | -1 | 2.95 |
| 1.35 | 1 | 1.13 |
| 2.30 | 0 | 1.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.60 is shorter than Both teams to score – No at 2.25, meaning the market considers goals from both sides more likely than at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
67/100
|
29/100
|
9/25
|
| 888sport |
67/100
|
3/10
|
33/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Valencia at 1 goal and Villarreal at 1.5 goals.
Valencia team total goals
For Valencia team goals, Under 0.5 is 3.25 compared with 1.30 for Over 0.5; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 at 1.63 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.20. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.53 is favoured over Over 1.5 at 2.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.20 | 1 | 1.63 |
| 1.53 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Villarreal team total goals
For Villarreal team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.16 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 4.30, while Over 1 at 1.35 is shorter than Under 1 at 3.00. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1.5 is 1.80 and Over 1.5 is 1.95. At 2 goals, Under 2 at 1.35 is favoured over Over 2 at 2.85.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.80 | 1.5 | 1.95 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Alejandro Quintero (Spain)
Matches – 20 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4.7;
Matches with a red card – 9 out of 20;
Matches with a penalty – 9 out of 20.
