Odds overview
Villarreal are clear favourites, with a home win at 1.43, a draw at 5.00 and an Elche win at 6.70. Over 2.5 goals at 1.47 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.60; Villarreal Draw No Bet (0) is 1.14, compared with 4.60 for Elche Draw No Bet (0).
Why Villarreal are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Villarreal are 1.43 to win, the draw is available at 5.00 and an Elche win is 6.70.
- Villarreal have won three of their last four matches in all competitions.
- Elche have conceded 17 goals in eight La Liga matches; only Osasuna (18) and Racing (23) have conceded more.
- Villarreal have lost to Elche only twice in their last 14 meetings.
Form and Line-up Villarreal
After three consecutive La Liga defeats, Villarreal have recovered with three wins in their last four matches. The Yellow Submarine's only defeat in that run came against Real Madrid (0:1), and they beat Napoli (3:1) in the UEFA Champions League.
- Villarreal have scored more than 1.5 goals in nine of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- Villarreal have taken more than 4.5 corners in eight of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- There have been fewer than 4.5 yellow cards in eight of Villarreal's last 10 home La Liga matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Péter Gulácsi, Alex Freeman, Pau Navarro, Renato Veiga, Sergi Cardona, Santi Comesana, Juan Foyth, Pape Gueye, Ilias Akhomach, Ayoze Pérez, Alberto Moleiro.
Unavailable: Tajon Buchanan and Nicolas Pépé (both injured).
Form and Line-up Elche
Elche have won only once in eight league matches, beating Espanyol 3:1, and have dropped points in every other round with three draws and four defeats. Anselmi's side drew 0:0 with Celta in the last round, managing just two shots on target and creating 0.78 xG.
- Elche have taken fewer than 4.5 corners in eight of their last 10 away La Liga matches.
- Elche have committed more than 11.5 fouls in eight of their last 10 away La Liga matches.
- There have been fewer than 9.5 shots on target in eight of Elche's last 10 away La Liga matches.
Probable line-up (5-3-2): Matías Dituro, Rubén Sánchez, Javi Morcillo, Víctor Chust, Roy Revivo, Germán Valera, Marc Aguado, Gonzalo Villar, Thomas Lemar, Tete Morente, Fer Niño.
Unavailable: Yago Santiago (injured); Buba Sangaré is doubtful.
The teams' chances
A Villarreal win is quoted at 1.43, with fair odds of 1.50 and a 66.7% probability. The draw is 5.00, with fair odds of 5.24 and a 19.1% probability; the corresponding figures for an Elche win are 6.70, 7.03 and 14.2%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal win | 1.43 | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.24 | 19.1% |
| Elche win | 6.70 | 7.03 | 14.2% |
Total goals betting analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.47 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.60. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is favoured at 1.70, compared with 2.15 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.60 | 1.47 |
| 3.5 | 1.70 | 2.15 |
Handicap betting analysis
Elche (+1.5) at 1.70 is shorter than Villarreal (-1.5) at 2.13. On the one-goal handicap line, Villarreal (-1) are 1.65 and Elche (+1) are 2.20; on the zero-handicap line, Villarreal Draw No Bet (0) at 1.14 is considerably shorter than Elche Draw No Bet (0) at 4.60.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.13 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.70 | |
| 1.65 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.20 | |
| 1.14 | 0 | 4.60 |
Both teams to score betting analysis
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.65, while Both teams to score — No is 2.17; the market slightly favours both teams finding the net.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.17 |
Team goal totals betting analysis
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal lines: Villarreal — 2 goals; Elche — 1 goal.
Villarreal team goal total
Villarreal's team goal total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.04 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 7.80, while Over 1.5 goals is 1.40 against 2.70 for Under 1.5 goals. On the two-goal line, Over 2 goals is 1.68 and Under 2 goals is 2.12; on the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.63 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.20.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.80 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.70 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
| 2.12 | 2 | 1.68 |
| 1.63 | 2.5 | 2.20 |
Elche team goal total
Elche's team goal total: Over 0.5 goals is quoted at 1.55, compared with 2.40 for Under 0.5 goals. On the one-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.57 is shorter than Over 1 goal at 2.30; on the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.28 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 3.35.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | 0.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.57 | 1 | 2.30 |
| 1.28 | 1.5 | 3.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Víctor García (Spain)
Matches – 23 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4;
Matches with a red card – 4 of 23;
Matches with a penalty – 5 of 23.
