Odds overview
Paris Saint-Germain are clear favourites: an away win is available at 1.60, while a Villarreal win and a draw are both quoted at around 4.70. In the main goals market, Over 2.5 is strongly favoured over Under 2.5, at 1.35 versus 2.95. The visitors also have the edge in the handicap (0) market: Paris Saint-Germain Draw No Bet is available at 1.27, compared with 3.40 for Villarreal Draw No Bet.
Why Paris Saint-Germain are favourites
Paris Saint-Germain are the bookmakers' favourites: an away win is available at 1.60, while a Villarreal win and a draw are both quoted at 4.70.
- The Paris club have consistently avoided defeat in the competition: Paris Saint-Germain are unbeaten in their last 10 UEFA Champions League matches.
- The Spanish club have regularly lost in Europe's leading club competition: Villarreal have lost 8 of their last 10 UEFA Champions League matches.
Form and Line-up Villarreal
In their most recent match on 30 October, Villarreal lost 0:1 at home to Espanyol. Before that, they thrashed Manacor 5:0 in a cup match on 27 October and beat Valencia 2:1 away on 24 October.
- Over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 of Villarreal's last 10 UEFA Champions League matches.
- The two teams combined for over 5.5 shots on target in each of Villarreal's last 10 competitive matches.
Probable Villarreal line-up: Péter Gulácsi, Santiago Mouriño, Pau Navarro, Renato Veiga, Sergi Cardona, Santi Comesana, Pape Gueye, Tajon Buchanan, Alberto Moleiro, Georges Mikautadze, Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi.
Nathan-Dylan Saliba and Ilias Akhomach are listed as unavailable for Villarreal due to muscle injuries.
Form and Line-up Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain played their most recent match on 30 October, thrashing Le Havre 5:1 away from home. Before that, the Paris club beat Lyon 2:0 on 26 October and Strasbourg 3:1 on 17 October.
- Paris Saint-Germain avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Paris Saint-Germain scored over 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Champions League matches.
Probable Paris Saint-Germain line-up: Matvei Safonov, Achraf Hakimi, Willian Pacho, Ilya Zabarnyi, Lucas Hernandez, João Neves, Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz, Désiré Doué, Senny Mayulu, Ferran Torres.
Ousmane Dembélé, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes and Khvicha Kvarackhelija are listed as unavailable for Paris Saint-Germain.
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives a Villarreal win and a draw a 20.3% chance each: the average odds for both outcomes are 4.70, with fair odds of 4.94. A Paris Saint-Germain win is rated at 59.5%; the average odds for an away win are 1.60, with fair odds of 1.68.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal win | 4.70 | 4.94 | 20.3% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.94 | 20.3% |
| Paris Saint-Germain win | 1.60 | 1.68 | 59.5% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is offered at 2.95 and Over 2.5 at 1.35, clearly favouring the over. At 3.5 goals, the odds are almost level: Under 3.5 is 1.93 and Over 3.5 is 1.87.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.95 | 1.35 |
| 3.5 | 1.93 | 1.87 |
Handicap betting
At the -1.5 handicap line, Villarreal (-1.5) and Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5) are quoted at 7.10 and 2.45 respectively. At the 1.5 line, Villarreal (+1.5) is available at 1.53 and Paris Saint-Germain (+1.5) at 1.05. Villarreal (-1) and Paris Saint-Germain (-1) are quoted at 6.20 and 1.95, while Villarreal (+1) and Paris Saint-Germain (+1) are 1.85 and 1.07. At handicap (0), Villarreal Draw No Bet is available at 3.40 and Paris Saint-Germain Draw No Bet at 1.27.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.10 | -1.5 | 2.45 |
| 1.53 | 1.5 | 1.05 |
| 6.20 | -1 | 1.95 |
| 1.85 | 1 | 1.07 |
| 3.40 | 0 | 1.27 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score – Yes is offered at 1.40, while Both teams to score – No is available at 2.70; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.40 |
| No | 2.70 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/10
|
9/50
|
17/100
|
| William Hill |
6/5
|
11/50
|
1/5
|
| 888sport |
6/5
|
11/50
|
1/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 1 goal for Villarreal and 2 goals for Paris Saint-Germain.
Villarreal team total goals
For Villarreal's 0.5-goal team total, Under 0.5 is available at 3.20 and Over 0.5 at 1.30. At the 1-goal line, the odds are 2.15 for Under 1 and 1.65 for Over 1. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is offered at 1.50 and Over 1.5 at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.15 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Paris Saint-Germain team total goals
For Paris Saint-Germain's 0.5-goal team total, Under 0.5 is available at 8.00 and Over 0.5 at 1.04. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 2.70 and Over 1.5 at 1.40; at 2 goals, Under 2 is 2.10 and Over 2 is 1.70. For the 2.5-goal total, the odds are 1.60 for Under 2.5 and 2.25 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 8.00 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.70 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
| 2.10 | 2 | 1.70 |
| 1.60 | 2.5 | 2.25 |
