Odds overview
Norway are clear favourites: a Norway win is available at 1.53, while the draw is quoted at 4.50 and a Wales win at around 5.90. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is strongly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. In the main handicap market, Norway Draw No Bet (0) at 1.20 is much shorter than Wales Draw No Bet (0) at 4.30.
Why Norway are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: Norway are available to win at 1.53, the draw is offered at 4.50, and a Wales win is quoted at 5.90.
- Norway have made a high-scoring start in attack, beating Denmark 3:2 and losing to Portugal 1:2 in a match in which Erling Haaland scored.
- Wales have yet to earn a point or score a goal in the current tournament, losing to Portugal (0:1) and Denmark (0:2).
Form and Line-up Wales
Wales have shown less attacking activity than their opponents at the start of the tournament: they have yet to score in the current UEFA Nations League and rank last on that measure.
Their attacking limitations appear to be a consistent pattern: Wales have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Wales's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- At least two goals have been scored in 8 of Wales's last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 8 of Wales's last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Karl Darlow, Connor Roberts, Chris Mepham, Ben Davies, Neco Williams, Ethan Ampadu, Jordan James, Josh Sheehan, Brennan Johnson, Lewis Koumas, Dan James
Form and Line-up Norway
Norway keep opponents' attacking attempts in check: their opponents have attempted fewer than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
The team's discipline is reflected in the statistics: fewer than 5.5 yellow cards have been shown in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- There have been fewer than 24.5 fouls in 9 of Norway's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Norway have been caught offside fewer than 1.5 times in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Norway have not won the offside count in their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Ørjan Håskjold Nyland, Kristoffer Ajer, Fredrik Aursnes, Julian Ryerson, Torbjørn Heggem, Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, Martin Ødegaard, Erling Haaland, Antonio Nusa, Andreas Schjelderup
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Norway a 62.5% chance of winning: average odds for a Norway win are 1.53, with fair odds of 1.60. For the draw, the corresponding figures are 21.3%, 4.50 and 4.70; for a Wales win, they are 16.2%, 5.90 and 6.17.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wales win | 5.90 | 6.17 | 16.2% |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.70 | 21.3% |
| Norway win | 1.53 | 1.60 | 62.5% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At the 3.5-goal line, the picture is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is offered at 1.55, while Over 3.5 goals is at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Norway (-1.5) is available at 2.30, while Wales (+1.5) is at 1.58. At the -1 line, Norway (-1) is offered at 1.82; at the +1 line, Wales (+1) is at 1.98. With a zero handicap, Norway Draw No Bet (0) at 1.20 is much shorter than Wales Draw No Bet (0) at 4.30.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.30 | |
| 1.58 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.82 | |
| 1.98 | 1 | |
| 4.30 | 0 | 1.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.65 and is favoured over Both teams to score — No at 2.15. The latter means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.15 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/2
|
9/50
|
13/100
|
| William Hill |
29/20
|
1/5
|
7/50
|
| 888sport |
29/20
|
1/5
|
7/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Wales — 1 goal; Norway — 2 goals.
Wales team goals
For Wales team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.50 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.45. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is available at 1.60 and Over 1 at 2.30; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.28 is much shorter than Over 1.5 at 3.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.45 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.60 | 1 | 2.30 |
| 1.28 | 1.5 | 3.35 |
Norway team goals
For Norway team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.05 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 7.00. Over 1.5 is available at 1.50, compared with 2.50 for Under 1.5; at the 2-goal line, the odds are almost equal — Under 2 at 1.85 and Over 2 at 1.90. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is offered at 1.48 and Over 2.5 at 2.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.00 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.50 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.85 | 2 | 1.90 |
| 1.48 | 2.5 | 2.55 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Alejandro Hernández (Spain)
Matches — 11 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 2.6;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 11;
Matches with a penalty — 4 of 11.
