Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League match.
Barcelona will go into the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final against Borussia Dortmund with a clear upper hand. The hosts are capable of striking early with quick goals, but their persistent defensive vulnerabilities continue to give opponents opportunities.
Barcelona
Since the March international break, Barcelona have played four matches and signs of fatigue are beginning to show. In their recent 1:1 draw with Real Betis Balompié, they conceded despite allowing just 0.31 xGA and dominating possession with 74% — the team is still allowing chances to slip through. In the Round of 16 clash with Sport Lisboa e Benfica, which they won with a score of 4:1 on aggregate, they were reduced to ten men for 70 minutes in the away leg. Across both matches, they conceded 2.49 xGA and relied heavily on nine saves from Wojciech Szczesny, who has been consistently called upon to rescue the team.
Borussia Dortmund
The March international break seemed to rejuvenate Borussia Dortmund, who responded with consecutive Bundesliga wins over higher-placed opposition: a 3:1 victory over 1. FSV Mainz 05 and a 4:1 result against SC Freiburg. However, they will be without the injured Nico Schlotterbeck, and Pascal Groß is suspended for the opening leg due to yellow card accumulation. In attack, Serhou Guirassy has been in excellent form, contributing 10 goals and 4 assists in European competition.
Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
In the group stage, Barcelona edged Borussia Dortmund with a score of 3:2 in Dortmund, with both teams combining for 4.77 xG. The “Both Teams to Score – Yes” market appears promising, as both squads are likely to push forward in numbers while ongoing defensive lapses leave room for goals at either end.
