The first leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League quarter-final between Barcelona (Spain) and Borussia Dortmund (Germany) will take place on April 9 at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys. Barcelona vs. Borussia Dortmund: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Barcelona
The Catalans defeated Benfica twice in the previous round (1-0, 3-1). The team boasts 8 wins in their last 9 Champions League matches, scoring fewer than two goals only once during this stretch. Overall, Barcelona has netted 32 goals – more than any other team in the current tournament. The Spaniards have reached the Champions League quarter-finals for the second consecutive time, but last season they failed to progress past this stage, losing to PSG (3-2, 1-4).
- Both teams scored in 6 of Barcelona's last 8 Champions League matches.
- At home, the team has won 8 of their last 10 matches in this tournament (1 draw, 1 loss).
- At least three goals have been scored in Barcelona's last 13 home Champions League matches.
Projected lineup for Barcelona (4-3-3)
Wojciech Szczesny – Jules Kounde, Inigo Martinez, Pau Cubarsi, Alejandro Balde – Frenkie de Jong, Pedri, Gavi – Lamine Yamal, Raphinha Dias, Robert Lewandowski.
Out due to injuries are goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen and midfielders Marc Bernal, Marc Casado, and Dani Olmo.
Borussia Dortmund
The Germans overcame Lille in the previous round. After a 1-1 draw at home, Niko Kovac's side defeated the French team away, 2-1. This extended their unbeaten run in the Champions League to five matches (3 wins, 2 draws). Notably, Dortmund failed to score in only one match in the current tournament, and with a total of 28 goals, they are second only to Barcelona. Last season, the team faced another Spanish club, Atletico, in the quarter-finals and progressed further (1-2, 4-2).
- The club has not conceded more than one goal in 7 of their last 9 Champions League matches.
- Dortmund's scoring streak in away Champions League matches stands at 11 games.
- Borussia has not drawn in their last 8 matches in this tournament (5 wins, 3 losses).
Projected lineup for Borussia Dortmund (3-5-2)
Gregor Kobel – Julian Ryerson, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini – Karim Adeyemi, Felix Nmecha, Julian Brandt, Carney Chukwuemeka, Emre Can – Serhou Guirassy, Maximilian Beyer.
Midfielder Pascal Gross is suspended. Midfielder Marcel Sabitzer and defender Nico Schlotterbeck are injured.
Referee
Espen Eskas (Norway)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 51;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.2;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 25%.
Barcelona vs. Borussia Dortmund: Match Prediction
The opponents met in the group stage of the current Champions League in Dortmund, where the Catalans secured a 3-2 victory. Since that match, Barcelona lost two consecutive La Liga games but then won 18 of their last 22 official matches (with 4 draws). Borussia, on the other hand, has been showing modest results. Even in their national championship, Niko Kovac's side is mid-table. The Spaniards, who have won 8 of their last 10 home Champions League matches, are rightly considered favorites for the upcoming clash.
I also expect the teams to deliver high-scoring performance once again. Together, the opponents have already scored 60 goals in the current Champions League. Barcelona, in particular, impresses in this regard. The Catalans have scored at least twice in 9 of their last 10 home games in the Champions League, and in six of these matches, they scored at least three goals. Dortmund, meanwhile, has scored in 11 consecutive away Champions League matches. The Germans should have their chances against the regularly conceding Spaniards.
My prediction: Barcelona to win and Total Over 2.5 goals
