Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the La Liga match.
Fresh off a Champions League victory over Atlético Madrid (2:1), Real Madrid are riding a wave of confidence and will be eager to bounce back from their recent La Liga setback. Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone three matches without a win and have historically struggled at the Santiago Bernabéu.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid suffered a disappointing 2:1 defeat to Real Betis in their last league outing, where they were outshot (18-9) and outperformed in xG (2.39-1.13). However, at home, Real Madrid have been dominant, winning 10 of their 12 La Liga matches at the Bernabéu, scoring 31 goals—just two fewer than Barcelona. The hosts have netted at least twice in every home league match except for clashes against Barcelona (0:4) and Atlético Madrid (1:1). The in-form Kylian Mbappé has been a goal machine, scoring 14 times in his last 14 matches since 12 January.
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano are struggling for form, failing to win any of their last three matches and scoring just once in that stretch. Their defensive issues persist, having conceded in 9 of their last 11 La Liga matches. Goalkeeper Augusto Batalla has kept just five clean sheets in 21 league appearances, and Rayo Vallecano have taken only two points from four matches against top-six opposition this season. Their poor record at the Santiago Bernabéu is another major concern—they haven’t won there in their last 14 visits.
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction
With Real Madrid highly motivated to close the gap on Barcelona, and Mbappé in red-hot form, Rayo Vallecano's leaky defence will likely struggle to contain them. Given Real Madrid's strong home record and Rayo's attacking struggles, a combination bet is the way to go.
