Odds Overview
Atletico Madrid to win at 1.87 looks preferable to the draw at 3.70 and Villarreal to win at 4.15. In the main goals total, Over 2.5 at 1.85 is rated slightly higher than Under 2.5 at 1.95. At handicap level, Atletico Madrid Draw No Bet at 1.38 is noticeably more likely than Villarreal Draw No Bet at 2.80.
Why Atletico Madrid Are Favourites for the Match
The bookmakers give the advantage to the Madrid side: an Atletico Madrid win is priced at 1.87, a Villarreal victory at 4.15 and the draw at 3.70. The arguments in favour of that view are:
Home defensive model. In 10 of their last 10 home matches, Atletico Madrid have not allowed opponents to score more than two goals.
The visitors' problems with finishing away from home. In 8 of their last 10 away matches, Villarreal have been limited to no more than one goal.
A confident start to the season. Atletico Madrid beat Malaga CF (2:0) in the opening round, while Villarreal drew with Racing Club (2:2).
Form and Line-up Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid began the new season with a 2:0 home win over Malaga CF. The Madrid side's debut goal was scored by a new signing, Lee Kang-in, while Alex Baena created the second by putting the ball in from a free-kick.
That said, pre-season was uneven for Atletico Madrid — two wins, against Getafe and Olympique de Marseille, and two defeats, against Manchester City and Manchester United, but the Madrid side scored in every match.
Key numbers:
In 5 of their previous 6 matches, Both teams to score - Yes landed and Over 2.5 goals also came in.
In 4 of their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid scored first.
In 5 of the previous seven games, fewer than 4 yellow cards were shown.
Probable Atletico Madrid line-up (4-1-4-1): Jan Oblak — Jorge Dominguez, Robin Le Normand, David Hancko, Dani Martinez — Koke — Carlos Martin, Pablo Barrios, Rodrigo Mendoza — Arnau Ortiz — Ademola Lookman.
Absentees: Alexander Sorloth (injury), Julian Alvarez (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Villarreal
Villarreal opened the league campaign with a 2:2 away draw against Racing Club, where they conceded twice in the first half but levelled within the space of a minute through Pape Gueye and Nicolas Pepe.
Villarreal had an expansive pre-season — four wins, one draw and two defeats. Moreover, the only match in which the Valencians failed to score was against SL Benfica (0:2). In the other cases, they scored at least once.
Key numbers:
Over 2.5 goals came in in 5 of the last 7 matches.
Villarreal have conceded against Atletico Madrid in seven consecutive head-to-head matches.
Villarreal scored first in 5 of their previous 7 games.
Probable Villarreal line-up (4-4-2): Luiz Junior — Santiago Mourino, Juan Foyth, Renato Veiga, Carlos Romero — Nicolas Pepe, Santi Comesana. Pape Gueye, Alberto Moleiro — Gerard Moreno, Georges Mikautadze.
Absentees: Alassane Diatta (suspension).
Team Chances
Atletico Madrid to win is priced at 1.87; the no-margin estimate is 1.96 with a probability of 51.1%. The draw is offered at 3.70, with a no-margin estimate of 3.87 and a probability of 25.8%; Villarreal to win is 4.15, 4.34 and 23.0% respectively.
Outcome | Average Odds | Average No-Margin Odds | No-Margin Probability |
Atletico Madrid to win | 1.87 | 1.96 | 51.1% |
Draw | 3.70 | 3.87 | 25.8% |
Villarreal to win | 4.15 | 4.34 | 23.0% |
Total Goals Prediction
Under 2.5 is offered at 1.95 and Over 2.5 at 1.85, which gives a slight edge to the higher-scoring option. On the 3.5 line, Under is priced at 1.35 against 2.90 for Over, so the lower-scoring option is rated much higher.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.95 | 1.85 |
3.5 | 1.35 | 2.90 |
Handicap Prediction
For the -1.5 line, Atletico Madrid (-1.5) is priced at 3.20 and Villarreal (-1.5) at 7.50. On the 1.5 line, the prices are 1.05 for Atletico Madrid (+1.5) and 1.30 for Villarreal (+1.5). Atletico Madrid (-1) at 2.60 is preferable to Villarreal (-1) at 6.50, while on the 1 line Atletico Madrid (+1) is 1.06 and Villarreal (+1) is 1.50. In the Draw No Bet market, Atletico Madrid at 1.38 is priced lower than Villarreal at 2.80.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
3.20 | -1.5 | 7.50 |
1.05 | 1.5 | 1.30 |
2.60 | -1 | 6.50 |
1.06 | 1 | 1.50 |
1.38 | 0 | 2.80 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.75 is priced lower than Both teams to score - No at 2.00, meaning at least one goal from each team looks slightly more likely than a scenario in which at least one of them fails to score.
Both Teams to Score | Odds |
Yes | 1.75 |
No | 2.00 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X at 1.23 is the most likely double chance, while 12 is offered at 1.28. X2 at 1.93 is assessed noticeably more cautiously.
1X | 12 | X2 |
23/100
|
7/25
|
93/100
|
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Atletico Madrid — 1.5 goals, Villarreal — 1 goal.
Atletico Madrid Team Total
Atletico Madrid: Under 0.5 is priced at 4.40 against 1.16 for Over 0.5; on the 1 line, the prices are 3.25 and 1.30 respectively. For the 1.5 total, the prices are level: Under 1.5 and Over 1.5 are both 1.88. On the 2 line, Under 2 at 1.38 is priced lower than Over 2 at 2.80.
Under | Team Total | Over |
4.40 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
3.25 | 1 | 1.30 |
1.88 | 1.5 | 1.88 |
1.38 | 2 | 2.80 |
Villarreal Team Total
Villarreal: Under 0.5 is offered at 2.55, with Over 0.5 at 1.47. On the 1 line, Under 1 at 1.73 is rated higher than Over 1 at 2.05, while at 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.33 is noticeably preferred to Over 1.5 at 3.00.
Under | Team Total | Over |
2.55 | 0.5 | 1.47 |
1.73 | 1 | 2.05 |
1.33 | 1.5 | 3.00 |
