Odds Overview
Bayern Munich are clear favourites: an away win is priced at 1.65, while a draw is rated at 4.20 and a home win at around 4.80. In the main total market, over 2.5 goals at 1.35 is considerably favoured over under 2.5 goals at 2.95. On the 0 handicap line, Bayern Munich Draw No Bet is priced at 1.25 compared with 3.45 for Borussia Dortmund Draw No Bet.
Why Bayern Munich Are Favourites for the Match
A Bayern Munich win is priced at 1.65, while Borussia Dortmund are available at 4.80.
- Bayern Munich head into the match able to use fresh key players: Manuel Neuer and Joshua Kimmich completed a separate intensive training session in Munich in the latest friendly, while several other regular starters only came on in the second half.
- Borussia Dortmund approach their first competitive match while reshaping the squad: new signings Joey Veerman and Giannis Konstantelias had only two or three training sessions with the team before travelling for the Super Cup.
Form and Line-up Borussia Dortmund
In their latest friendly, Borussia Dortmund had conceded twice to Roma by the ninth minute, but showed character to come back before half-time and secure a 2:2 draw.
Squad preparation came in waves: Gregor Kobel and Julian Ryerson were only included in the squad for the final friendly against Roma, so the team began the season with key players gradually returning to the fold.
Key numbers:
- Borussia Dortmund have scored at least two goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
- In 10 home matches in all competitions, Borussia Dortmund's opponents have taken no more than 5 corners.
- Borussia Dortmund have not lost the corner count in their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Probable Borussia Dortmund line-up (3-4-2-1): Gregor Kobel — Joane Gadou — Filippo Mane — Ramy Bensebaini — Daniel Svensson — Jobe Bellingham — Felix Nmecha — Julian Ryerson — Konstantinos Karetsas — Samuele Inacio — Serhou Guirassy.
Emre Can and Nico Schlotterbeck will miss the match. Carney Chukwuemeka is doubtful.
Form and Line-up Bayern Munich
In their final friendly against Heidenheim, Bayern Munich were 1:2 down at half-time but changed their approach in the second half, scored three goals and won 4:2.
Key numbers:
- Bayern Munich have scored at least two goals in 13 of their last 15 competitive matches.
- Bayern Munich have lost only 1 of their last 25 competitive matches.
- At least one goal has been scored in the second half in each of Bayern Munich's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Bayern Munich line-up (4-2-3-1): Jonas Urbig — Sacha Boey — Dayot Upamecano — Hiroki Ito — Alphonso Davies — Bara Sapoko N'Diaye — Felipe Chavez — Timo Binder — Maycon Cardozo — Wisdom Mike — Arijon Ibrahimovic.
Team Chances
A home win is available at 4.80, with a margin-free price of 5.05 and a probability of 19.8%. The draw is priced at 4.20, with a margin-free price of 4.42 and a probability of 22.6%. An away win at 1.65 corresponds to a margin-free price of 1.74 and a probability of 57.6%, confirming Bayern Munich's status as favourites.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average margin-free odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 4.80 | 5.05 | 19.8% |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.42 | 22.6% |
| Bayern Munich win | 1.65 | 1.74 | 57.6% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5-goal line, over 2.5 goals at 1.35 is considerably shorter than under 2.5 goals at 2.95. The 3.5-goal line is almost even: under 3.5 goals is priced at 1.92 and over 3.5 goals at 1.88.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.95 | 1.35 |
| 3.5 | 1.92 | 1.88 |
Handicap Prediction
Borussia Dortmund (-1.5) are priced at 7.20, while Bayern Munich (-1.5) are at 2.45. On the 1.5 line, Borussia Dortmund (+1.5) are priced at 1.50 compared with 1.05 for Bayern Munich (+1.5). For the -1 line, Borussia Dortmund (-1) are available at 6.30 and Bayern Munich (-1) at 2.00; on the 1 line, Borussia Dortmund (+1) are at 1.80 and Bayern Munich (+1) at 1.07. On the 0 handicap, Bayern Munich Draw No Bet at 1.25 is considerably shorter than Borussia Dortmund Draw No Bet at 3.45.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.20 | -1.5 | 2.45 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 1.05 |
| 6.30 | -1 | 2.00 |
| 1.80 | 1 | 1.07 |
| 3.45 | 0 | 1.25 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is priced at 1.40 and rated considerably more highly than both teams to score - No at 2.75, the option in which at least one team does not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.40 |
| No | 2.75 |
Double Chance Prediction
X2 is the shortest-priced double chance at 1.20, 12 is priced at 1.25, while 1X is considerably higher at 2.25.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
5/4
|
1/4
|
1/5
|
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Borussia Dortmund — 1 goal; Bayern Munich — 2 goals.
Borussia Dortmund Team Total
Borussia Dortmund: over 0.5 goals is priced at 1.28 compared with 3.30 for under 0.5 goals. On the 1-goal line, over 1 is priced at 1.65 and under 1 at 2.18. For the 1.5-goal line, under 1.5 goals at 1.50 is favoured over over 1.5 goals at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.18 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Bayern Munich Team Total
Bayern Munich: over 0.5 goals is priced at 1.04 compared with 7.80 for under 0.5 goals. On the 1.5-goal line, over 1.5 goals is priced at 1.43, while under 1.5 goals is at 2.65. Over 2 goals is priced at 1.72 compared with 2.07 for under 2 goals; on the 2.5-goal line, under 2.5 goals at 1.60 is shorter than over 2.5 goals at 2.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.80 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.65 | 1.5 | 1.43 |
| 2.07 | 2 | 1.72 |
| 1.60 | 2.5 | 2.25 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Daniel Schlager (Germany)
Matches — 14 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.2;
Matches with red cards — 1 of 14;
Matches with penalties — 4 of 14.
