Mainz 05 Form and Lineup
Just two weeks ago Mainz 05 were looking excellent: the team were on a run of five straight victories, having even dealt with Hoffenheim (2:1) from the top five during that spell. However, everything then changed — problems began with a home defeat to Freiburg (0:1), where they managed to create only 0.55 xG. After that the side crashed out of the Europa Conference League in inglorious fashion, surrendering a two-goal advantage to Strasbourg in the return leg already by half-time — the final score of 0:4 and the chance differential (0.24-3.26 xG) spoke volumes. In the last round of the Bundesliga Fischer's team could not cope with the inconsistent Borussia Monchengladbach (1:1), who are still stuck in the battle to avoid relegation. Away at Borussia's ground the visitors struggled with their finishing — they generated 2.32 xG and produced 17 attempts, but scored the only goal from a penalty in the final minute of added time.
Key numbers for Mainz 05:
The carnival club have scored more than 11 goals fewer than expected at home — 17 actual compared to 28.42 expected.
Only Heidenheim (14) and Wolfsburg (9) have picked up fewer home points than Mainz 05 (17) — both are currently in the automatic relegation places.
Since the start of the 2023/24 season Mainz 05 have conceded 21 goals to Bayern Munich in six head-to-head meetings.
Potential Mainz 05 Lineup (3-1-4-2)
Daniel Batz — Dominik Kohr, Stefan Posch, Danny da Costa — Kaishu Sano — Nadiem Amiri, Paul Nebel, Nikolas Veratschnig, Anthony Caci — Phillip Tietz, Sheraldo Becker.
Unavailable: Silas, Robin Zentner, Jae-sung Lee, Casey Bost, Benedict Hollerbach (all injured).
Bayern Munich Form and Lineup
Kompany's coaching staff have managed to bring Bayern Munich to peak condition for the decisive stretch of the season. The Munich side are on an eight-match winning streak — during this run only Real Madrid at the Bernabeu (2:1) and Bayer Leverkusen away in the semi-final of the German Cup (2:0) have limited them to fewer than two goals. Last Sunday the team needed only a narrow win over Stuttgart to secure a second consecutive championship, but they went further. The Reds dominated, scoring three times within six minutes before the interval, with Diaz the only regular starter in attack (two assists). In the end Kompany's side cruised to a 4:2 victory over a motivated opponent fighting for a Champions League spot, racking up a staggering 4.61 xG from 28 shots. Knocking out Bayer Leverkusen in the German Cup has brought the club closer to a treble, but in the Bundesliga nobody is planning to ease off.
Key numbers for Bayern Munich:
The Munich side have already broken the Bundesliga record for goals: they have 109 goals from 30 matches.
Away from home they have generated 40.50 xG in 15 matches — no other club have reached even 28 expected goals.
Harry Kane is well clear in the race for the Golden Boot. The Englishman has scored 32 goals in the Bundesliga, 16 points ahead of Kylian Mbappe, who has 24 goals in La Liga.
Potential Bayern Munich Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Jonas Urbig — Alphonso Davies, Hiroki Ito, Min-jae Kim, Josip Stanisic — Leon Goretzka, Joshua Kimmich — Luis Diaz, Jamal Musiala, Raphael Guerreiro — Nicolas Jackson.
Unavailable: Tom Bischof, Serge Gnabry, Lennart Karl (all injured).
