The two clubs are clearly not on equal footing. Chelsea have finally found some stability and remain among the leaders chasing Liverpool. Meanwhile, despite earning a point in their last outing, Southampton are the primary candidates for relegation.
They are just four points adrift of the crucial 17th place. It seems like there’s still hope to turn things around, but with such inefficiency, the task is daunting: they have scored 4.39 goals fewer than their xG suggests. In the previous round, Southampton roughly matched their xG, scoring once from ten shots and two on target. The opposition, however, fired off 22 shots, fortunately only five were accurate. Adding to their injury woes (goalkeepers Aaron Ramsdale and Gavin Bazunu, defender Jan Bednarek, and five other players), they will now miss three players against Chelsea due to yellow card accumulation: defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis and midfielders Tyler Dibling and Flynn Downes. They have each picked up five bookings—discipline is lacking (second in the league with 44 yellow cards and 2 red cards).
Surprisingly, Chelsea top the misconduct chart with 47 yellow cards, but none of their players will miss the clash with Southampton. Their injury list isn’t as extensive: besides the long-term absentee Reece James, Wesley Fofana joined the sidelines after their last game against Aston Villa (3:0). Head coach Enzo Maresca stated that it’s a hamstring issue, keeping him out for three to five weeks. Chelsea are unbeaten in five matches since their loss to Liverpool (1:2) on October 20th, a run which includes 1:1 draws with Manchester United and Arsenal.
The hosts have little to grasp here. The suspensions of key players will affect Southampton's already fragile game. Chelsea are expected to take advantage and secure a convincing victory.
