Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
If this were the first round, it would nearly be a certainty that Sheffield United would win, but after five rounds, Derby County have shown that they need to be taken seriously.
Sheffield United
The team have kept clean sheets in their last two games, which secured them two victories. Particularly valuable was their success against Watford, one of their competitors at the top early in the season. Prior to that, Watford had been scoring more than two goals per game, but Sheffield United managed to contain their effectiveness, allowing just 0.78 xG and only 7(1) attempts. Hull City were allowed about the same: 0.72 xG and 9 (4) attempts.
Derby County
Derby County impressed at home, having not lost a single point in three matches and scoring five unanswered goals. Were the match being played on their field, we’d give them the edge, but it will be held in Sheffield. Away matches tell a different story: two losses in two matches and a goal difference of –3. It should be noted, though, that the opposition were strong attacking teams, Blackburn Rovers (2:4) and Watford (1:2), and Derby County’s defence allowed 2.11 more goals than expected (xG).
Sheffield United vs Derby County Prediction
Both clubs have scored eight goals, averaging 1.6 per game. Sheffield United concede fewer goals, 0.6 per game, compared to Derby County’s 1.2, though four of those came in the match against Blackburn. In any case, both sides see fewer than three goals in games they play, so we'll bet on the total under.
