2026 Oscars: Betting Odds and Predictions

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on 15 March 2026 and will feature 12 categories, with winners chosen by members of the Academy. The nominees will be announced on 22 January, while the first round of voting will run from the 12th to the 21st of the month. As ever, the biggest focus is on the Best Picture race.

Oscars 2026: Best Picture

On the night of 16–17 December, the Academy unveiled its shortlists, narrowing the field of contenders in each category. Let us take a closer look at the main nominations and the betting odds for each potential winner.

Best Picture: One Battle After Another on the road to Academy recognition

The Best Picture category remains the centrepiece of the Oscars. This year, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is the clear frontrunner, a view strongly shared by the bookmakers.

There are no rigid criteria that guide Academy members when selecting Best Picture, a fact that often frustrates critics and fans alike. Notably, none of Anderson’s previous films have ever won the top prize, despite many of them being widely regarded as modern classics.

One Battle After Another, which tells a revenge story starring Leonardo DiCaprio as a former revolutionary, struggled at the box office, grossing just 200 million dollars worldwide. Critical reception was mixed, and compared with Anderson’s earlier work such as Magnolia and Phantom Thread, the film falls short in visual flair and narrative execution. Even so, this could finally be the project that delivers the British director his first Oscar.

Hamnet has enjoyed greater commercial success thanks to its modest production budget. Chloé Zhao’s adaptation of the acclaimed novel offers a fresh perspective on the Shakespeare family, with Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal delivering fully realised performances despite a relatively concise runtime of just two hours. For comparison, One Battle After Another runs for around 190 minutes.

However, the film’s unhurried pacing and heavy sentimentality detract from the overall impact. Against that backdrop, Anderson’s work appears more cohesive, which has ultimately pushed Hamnet out of pole position in the Best Picture race.

Ryan Coogler’s Sinners surprised many with a strong box-office showing despite its unconventional setting. The gothic horror tale of vampires in the American South of the last century feels gripping and refreshingly bold, while Michael B. Jordan’s dual role stands out as one of the year’s finest performances.

That said, Coogler has often leaned heavily on references to African American culture, and while Sinners is far more compelling than franchise fare such as Black Panther, there is a sense that the film may have arrived too late. In the early 2020s, its chances might have been considerably stronger.

Top 5 contenders for Best Picture

Best Director: Anderson closing in on a long-awaited Oscar

Paul Thomas Anderson is the standout favourite in this category. The director of There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread and Magnolia has, remarkably, never won an Oscar, despite being nominated 11 times.

There is a certain irony in the fact that it is a film starring Leonardo DiCaprio — an actor once seen as one of Hollywood’s perennial Oscar bridesmaids before his win in 2016 — that is now poised to bring Anderson the long-awaited statuette.

Chloé Zhao already has an Oscar to her name for Nomadland, and many believe her biggest obstacle is the emotional similarity between that 2021 winner and Hamnet. Despite the differing settings, critics note that Zhao employs familiar techniques, whereas Anderson builds on his signature style to deliver a more layered and complex piece of filmmaking.

Ryan Coogler appears an even longer shot. He was previously nominated in 2021 as a producer for Judas and the Black Messiah, but the upcoming ceremony marks his first nomination as a director.

Against such heavyweight competition, Coogler’s chances of victory remain slim.

Top 5 contenders for Best Director

Best Actor: Chalamet vs DiCaprio

Timothée Chalamet came close to Oscar glory last year, but his portrayal of Bob Dylan fell just short against Adrien Brody’s performance in The Brutalist. This time, the 27-year-old faces stiff competition from Leonardo DiCaprio.

Chalamet has become a defining figure of Hollywood’s new generation, excelling in blockbuster projects such as Denis Villeneuve’s Dune while also shining in auteur cinema, including Wes Anderson’s Don’t Look Up.

Marty Supreme is unlikely to feature prominently in other categories. According to early reviews, it is Chalamet’s performance that carries the film, which is not due for release until mid-January. An Oscar win would feel like a natural milestone in the career of one of Luca Guadagnino’s favourite collaborators.

DiCaprio finally ended his long wait for an Oscar in 2016 with The Revenant. Since then, he has been nominated just once more, in 2020 for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

A decade ago, the world watched in anticipation of DiCaprio’s elusive first win. Now, although he has returned to the big screen, his portrayal of a vengeful revolutionary is widely seen as less compelling than his performances in The Wolf of Wall Street or The Revenant.

One factor in DiCaprio’s favour is his preference for original characters rather than real-life figures. Over the past 15 years, actors playing real people have won the Oscar seven times, most recently Cillian Murphy as Oppenheimer in 2024, while fictional characters have taken the prize on eight occasions.

Top 5 contenders for Best Actor

Best Actress: Will Buckley Take Home the Oscar?

The clear favourite in this category is Jessie Buckley. Her outstanding performance in Hamnet, portraying the complex and understated role of William Shakespeare’s wife, makes it hard to imagine the 35-year-old Irish actress missing out on her first Oscar.

In a film of this nature, Shakespeare himself — played impressively by Paul Mescal — might have been expected to dominate, yet it is Buckley who most powerfully conveys the grief of losing a child.

Bookmakers also rate Rose Byrne as a serious contender for her role as Linda in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. The 46-year-old Australian convincingly translates the film’s existential themes to the screen, capturing her character’s discomfort and inner turmoil.

However, psychological thrillers are often overlooked by the Academy, and such narratives can feel repetitive, with only the setting and level of suspense changing.

One of the year’s most memorable performances came from Emma Stone in the sci-fi comedy Bugonia. Stone plays an alien attempting to take control of humanity by wiping out honeybees, fully embracing the absurdity of the premise. Her character unfolds in unexpected ways throughout the film.

Adding to the commitment, Stone actually shaved her head for the role, earning extra credit for dedication.

After more grounded performances in films such as La La Land, her collaborations with the distinctive vision of Yorgos Lanthimos have already paid off, with an Oscar win in 2024 for Poor Things. This time, however, bookmakers are unconvinced.

Top 5 contenders for Best Actress

Frequently Asked Questions about Oscars 2026

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