Odds overview
Barcelona are clear favourites: the home win is available at 1.37, while the draw and away win are 5.30 and 7.70. In the main total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.50. Athletic Bilbao (+1.5) at 1.80 is rated slightly higher than Barcelona (-1.5) at 2.00.
Why Barcelona are favourites for the match
Barcelona to win is available at 1.37, the draw at 5.30 and Athletic Bilbao to win at 7.70. The arguments for this assessment are:
Winning the scoring battle in every home match. Barcelona have outscored their opponents in each of their last 10 home matches.
Athletic Bilbao's away problems. The visitors have conceded at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 matches.
Athletic Bilbao's absences. Yuri Berchiche will miss the match through suspension, weakening the visitors' defence.
Form before the match. A 5:0 thrashing of Elche in the previous match, with Fermin Lopez and Raphinha both scoring twice.
Form and Line-up Barcelona
In their previous match, Barcelona thrashed Elche 5:0, with Raphinha opening the scoring from the penalty spot in the 14th minute. The Brazilian later scored twice, while Adeyemi and Fermin added another three goals between them. At home, Flick's side have won the first half in 9 of their last matches and have not lost a first half in 19 home La Liga fixtures. The club face a busy schedule of three matches in eight days, increasing the likelihood of rotation. However, the Catalans have a strong squad.
Key numbers:
Barcelona have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
At home, Barcelona's opponents have scored no more than one goal in 9 of their last 10 La Liga matches.
Fewer than 4 yellow cards have been shown in 10 consecutive matches.
Probable Barcelona line-up (4-2-3-1): Joan Garcia — Eric Garcia, Andreas Christensen, Gerard Martin, Xavi Espart — Pedri, Marc Bernal — Lamine Yamal, Fermin Lopez, Raphinha — Karim Adeyemi.
Absentees: Roony Bardghji, Frenkie de Jong, Gavi (all injured).
Form and Line-up Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao, managed by Edin Terzic, began with a 1:3 defeat to Sevilla after playing almost the entire match with 10 men following Yuri Berchiche's early dismissal in the 11th minute. Away from home, the Basques are uncompromising: the second half has not ended in a draw in their last 12 away La Liga matches. The Basques also face a run of three matches in eight days, including an upcoming trip to Vigo.
Key numbers:
Athletic Bilbao's opponents have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 away La Liga matches.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 5 of the previous 6 matches.
Fewer than 4 yellow cards have been shown in 9 of the last 10 matches.
Probable Athletic Bilbao line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simon — Jesus Areso, Yeray Alvarez, Aitor Paredes, Adama Boiro — Peio Canales, Benat Gerenabarrena — Inaki Williams, Oihan Sancet, Alex Berenguer — Gorka Guruzeta.
Absentees: Yuri Berchiche (suspended), Dani Vivian (injured).
Team chances
The home win is available at 1.37; fair odds are 1.44 and 69.6%. The draw is 5.30, with fair odds of 5.56 and a probability of 18.0%, while the away win is 7.70, 8.07 and 12.4% respectively.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Barcelona to win | 1.37 | 1.44 | 69.6% |
Draw | 5.30 | 5.56 | 18.0% |
Athletic Bilbao to win | 7.70 | 8.07 | 12.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.50. At the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.65 has the edge over Over 3.5 goals at 2.25.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
3.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
Handicap prediction
Athletic Bilbao (+1.5) at 1.80 is quoted shorter than Barcelona (-1.5) at 2.00. At the 1 line, Barcelona (-1) at 1.55 is considerably preferred to Athletic Bilbao (+1) at 2.40. With the Draw No Bet handicap, Barcelona (0) is 1.11 and Athletic Bilbao (0) is 5.30.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.00 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.80 |
1.55 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.40 |
1.11 | 0 | 5.30 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.75 and is quoted shorter than Both teams to score - No at 2.00; the latter means that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.75 |
No | 2.00 |
Double chance prediction
1X at 1.08 is the most likely double-chance outcome, 12 is available at 1.16, while X2 at 3.10 is rated considerably higher.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.08 | 1.16 | 3.10 |
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Barcelona — 2.5 goals, Athletic Bilbao — 0.5 goals.
Barcelona team total
Barcelona: Over 2 goals at 1.65 is quoted shorter than Under 2 goals at 2.17. At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 is preferred to Over 2.5 goals at 2.15, while at the 3 line, Under 3 goals at 1.30 is favoured over Over 3 goals at 3.15.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.17 | 2 | 1.65 |
1.65 | 2.5 | 2.15 |
1.30 | 3 | 3.15 |
Athletic Bilbao team total
Athletic Bilbao: Over 0.5 goals at 1.65 is quoted shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.20. At the 1 line, Under 1 goal at 1.45 is preferred to Over 1 goal at 2.65; at the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.23 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 3.70.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.20 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
1.45 | 1 | 2.65 |
1.23 | 1.5 | 3.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Miguel Angel Ortiz (Spain)
Matches – 20 (La Liga, 2025/26;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4;
Matches with red cards – 4 of 20;
Matches with penalties – 4 of 20.
