Odds overview
Sweden are favourites in the 1X2 market: a Sweden win is available at 2.12, compared with 3.30 for Bosnia and Herzegovina and 3.65 for the draw. In the 2.5-goal totals market, Over 2.5 is shorter at 1.75 than Under 2.5 at 2.10, suggesting an expectation of at least three goals. On the main handicap line of 0, Sweden Draw No Bet at 1.58 is markedly favoured over Bosnia and Herzegovina Draw No Bet at 2.40.
Why Sweden are favourites
Bookmakers favour the Scandinavians: a Sweden win is offered at 2.12, a Bosnia and Herzegovina win at 3.30, and the draw at 3.65.
- Sweden took maximum points from their recent UEFA Nations League matches, comfortably beating Poland 3:1.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina have been less consistent, drawing 0:0 with Poland.
- Sweden have had more than 3.5 shots on target in each of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches and have avoided defeat on corners in 9 of those 10 — a sign of territorial control.
Form and Line-up Bosnia and Herzegovina
After a goalless draw with Poland (0:0), Bosnia and Herzegovina produced an excellent performance to beat Romania (4:2). They generated just 0.31 xG against Poland but managed four goals from 2.59 xG against Romania. Bosnia and Herzegovina are second in Group B with four points, behind only Sweden.
- At least two goals were scored in 8 of Bosnia and Herzegovina's last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina received more yellow cards than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina scored under 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Martin Zlomislic, Amar Memić, Nikola Katić, Tarik Muharemović, Sead Kolašinac, Ivan Bašić, Armin Gigovic, Esmir Bajraktarević, Ermin Mahmic, Kerim Alajbegović, Haris Tabakovic.
Form and Line-up Sweden
Sweden have a perfect record — a 2:1 win over Romania with goals from Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak, followed by a 3:1 win over Poland in which Viktor scored again. With six points, the Scandinavians top Group B with a 5:2 goal difference.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Sweden's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Sweden scored over 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Sweden avoided defeat on corners in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Viktor Johansson, Daniel Svensson, Carl Starfelt, Victor Lindelöf, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Patrik Wålemark, Lucas Bergvall, Yasin Ayari, Besfort Zeneli, Benjamin Nygren, Viktor Gyökeres.
Unavailable: Alexander Isak, Emil Holm, Anthony Elanga, Isak Hien and Jacob Zetterström (all injured); Hjalmar Ekdal (doubtful).
Teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Sweden a 45.0% chance of winning, with odds of 2.12 and fair odds of 2.22. Bosnia and Herzegovina have a 28.9% chance of winning, with odds of 3.30 and fair odds of 3.46; the draw stands at 26.1%, with odds of 3.65 and fair odds of 3.83.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia and Herzegovina win | 3.30 | 3.46 | 28.9% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.83 | 26.1% |
| Sweden win | 2.12 | 2.22 | 45.0% |
Total goals prediction
On the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 is favoured at 1.75 over Under 2.5 at 2.10. For the 3.5-goal total, the picture is reversed: Under 3.5 is 1.42 and Over 3.5 is 2.65, making four or more goals less likely.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
| 3.5 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) are offered at 5.90 and Sweden (-1.5) at 3.55; on the +1.5 line, Sweden (+1.5) have shorter odds at 1.08 than Bosnia and Herzegovina (+1.5) at 1.25. Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1) are at 5.20 and Sweden (-1) at 2.90, while the +1 handicap is 1.35 for Bosnia and Herzegovina (+1) and 1.11 for Sweden (+1). On the zero handicap line, Sweden Draw No Bet (0) at 1.58 are favoured over Bosnia and Herzegovina Draw No Bet (0) at 2.40.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.90 | -1.5 | 3.55 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.08 |
| 5.20 | -1 | 2.90 |
| 1.35 | 1 | 1.11 |
| 2.40 | 0 | 1.58 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.63 is favoured over Both teams to score — No at 2.20. The shorter odds for Yes suggest that both sides scoring is more likely than at least one side failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.63 |
| No | 2.20 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
57/100
|
29/100
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
61/100
|
3/10
|
9/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: Bosnia and Herzegovina — 1 goal; Sweden — 1.5 goals.
Bosnia and Herzegovina team goals
For Bosnia and Herzegovina's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.33 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.00. On the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.68 against 2.12 for Under 1, while Under 1.5 is favoured at 1.50 over Over 1.5 at 2.50.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | 0.5 | 1.33 |
| 2.12 | 1 | 1.68 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Sweden team goals
For Sweden's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.16 and Over 1 at 1.35 are much shorter than Under 0.5 at 4.30 and Under 1 at 3.00. On the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1.5 is 1.80 and Over 1.5 is 1.95. For the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.35 is favoured over Over 2 at 2.90.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.80 | 1.5 | 1.95 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
