Cabo Verde vs Saudi Arabia: prediction & betting odds 27 June 2026

Why There Is No Favourite in the Match

Bookmakers give Cape Verde a minimal advantage, which is no surprise, because the debutant national team have not yet won at the World Cup and have not exactly played sparkling football either. That is why the odds on their victory vary from 2.25 to 2.35, depending on the bookmaker.

• Cape Verde are 67th in the FIFA ranking, Saudi Arabia are 61st.

• Both draws were achieved primarily thanks to the defence, on which the national team spent a lot of energy. 

• Saudi Arabia have lost four of eight matches in 2026, but only to opponents from the top 40 of the ranking.

• Saudi Arabia goalkeeper Al-Owais has already made his mark, saving nine of 10 shots in the match against Uruguay.

Form and Line-up Cape Verde

After the sensational draw with Spain (0:0), Cape Verde went into the match against Uruguay with much more courage. Yes, the game plan remained the same - a low block with rare counter-attacks. This time, however, the team looked far more interesting in attack: they had 12 shots, four of which were on target (Uruguay had only two). The main difference was freedom in decision-making. And we are not only talking about Lenini's thunderous free-kick, but also bold attempts to dribble in the hope of breaking into space.

Key Numbers Cape Verde:

• After a phenomenal performance against Spain, Vozinha conceded from both shots on target.

• They average nine shots per match.

• They have scored at least twice in three of their last four matches.

Probable Cape Verde line-up (4-5-1): Vozinha - Steven Moreira, Diney Borges, Roberto Lopes, Sidny Lopes Cabral - Ryan Mendes, Kevin Lenini, Jamiro Monteiro, Telmo Arcanjo, Garry Rodrigues - Gilson Benchimol.

Absentees: -.

Form and Line-up Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, were destroyed by Spain in the second round (0:4). The defence failed to cope with the pressure, allowing 22 shots with a total xGA of 2.30. Although it is hard to call this a sensation or a disappointment. Far sadder was that the players coached by Donis did not even think about trying to counter-attack - only three shots with an xG of 0.13.

Often, rare counter-attacks ended with Al-Dawsari, who beat opponents one on one but then had absolutely no idea what to do with the ball: he made only three passes into the penalty area, and two of them were inaccurate. Al-Juwayr and Al-Buraikan did not use dribbling once at all, as if they were not even trying to create danger near the opposition goal.

Key Numbers Saudi Arabia:

• They have conceded in eight of their last 10 matches.

• Over 2.5 goals has landed in five of seven matches.

• They have only one win in seven matches in 2026.

Probable Saudi Arabia line-up (5-4-1): Mohammed Al-Owais - Saud Abdulhamid, Abdulelah Al-Amri, Ali Lajami, Hassan Tambakti, Moteb Al-Harbi - Musab Al-Juwayr, Nasser Al-Khaibari, Abdullah Al-Khaibari, Salem Al-Dawsari - Firas Al-Buraikan. 

Absentees: -.

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~5%). The average line: Cape Verde 2.30, draw 3.40, Saudi Arabia 3.90.

After removing the margin, a Cape Verde win is rated at approximately 43.5%, the draw at 29.4%, and a Saudi Arabia success at 25.6%. At the same time, 29.4% on the draw is a high figure: the market allows for a scenario in which Cape Verde do not take needless risks and play in their usual style, cementing the penalty area. 

Alternative Bets

• Under 2.5 goals - 1.75-1.85: the teams have scored three goals between them across two rounds. To put it mildly, their attacking potential is not high.

• Both teams to score - Yes - 1.75-1.85: The calculation is based on frankly weak defences. Although Cape Verde shut Spain out, only a miracle saved them. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, have conceded in both rounds.

• Cape Verde under 1.5 goals - 1.55-1.65: In four of their last eight matches, they failed to score more than one goal.

• Double chance 1X - 1.35-1.40: Cape Verde have drawn both matches at the tournament, and against top opponents. Building on that success against a national team in crisis will not be difficult at all. 

Total Goals Prediction

The totals line leans towards the under: Under 2.5 goals at 1.75-1.80, Over 2.5 goals at 1.95-2.05. The market expects a low-scoring match, considering the frankly weak set of attacking players in both teams and their defensive systems.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 is the most likely scenario. If we look at the teams' scoring output, to beat this outcome they need to score as many as they managed in 360 minutes between them. They now have half as much time and, more importantly, a much greater need to pick up points.

Handicap Prediction

Cape Verde Draw No Bet is the most balanced position. A win means a winning bet, a draw means a refund. Cape Verde (-1) is risky for the nominal hosts, because they need not only to score twice but also to keep a clean sheet. Doing both tasks at once is virtually impossible.

Cape Verde Draw No Bet at 1.65-1.75 looks attractive: the high individual level of their defenders should allow them to shut out the opposition, which already guarantees at least a refund. The hosts are perfectly capable of breaking down Saudi Arabia's leaky defence.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

In the both teams to score market, there is a slight edge for Yes: 1.75-1.85 (~55%) against No at 1.90-2.00 (~51%). The teams have scored in only one match at the tournament, but both looked terrible defensively.

Both teams to score - Yes is the priority option, but a fairly risky one. It is hard to predict what mood the national-team forwards will be in and whether they will do anything apart from constantly losing the ball in midfield.

Double Chance Prediction

The 1X option (Cape Verde not to lose) is the most cautious choice at 1.30-1.40. The 12 option (either team to win) at 1.29 is for those who are confident the opponents will not settle for a draw. X2 (Saudi Arabia not to lose) at 1.50 - 1.55 is a bet based on the hosts' low block and the near-absence of counter-attacks from them. 

1X is an excellent option for accumulators, and taking the opponents' motivation into account, 12 looks worst of all, because defeat would mean elimination from the tournament for one of the teams.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely score is 1:1. Both teams will be able to take advantage of each other's mistakes and score, but after that the nominal hosts will act cautiously, because every error will cost them points. 2:1 also looks interesting, because a draw does not suit Saudi Arabia. They will throw everything forward, which will leave the centre of the pitch exposed. Cape Verde could take advantage of that chance. 

When and Where to Watch

The match will take place on 27 June 2026 at 01:00 BST. The venue is NRG Stadium in Houston, USA.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who Will Referee the Match

Francois Letexier (France)

Matches – 25 (International matches, 2025–2026);

Average fouls per match – 21;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.2;

Matches with a red card – 3 out of 25;

Matches with a penalty – 6 out of 25.