Colombia vs Portugal: prediction & betting odds 28 June 2026

Why Portugal Are Favourites

Bookmakers see Portugal as favourites, but the difference in odds is not critical: a Portugal win is priced at 1.85–1.95, while Colombia are at 3.80–4.20. A draw is at 3.50–3.80.

• Portugal are fifth in the FIFA rankings, Colombia are 13th.

• Portugal's squad is valued at more than 1 billion euros, Colombia's is 800 million less.

• Portugal are creating an average of 1.85 xG per match compared with Colombia's 1.32 xG.

• Portugal are allowing 0.56 xGA compared with Colombia's 1.10 xGA – Portugal's defence is significantly more reliable.

Form and Line-up Colombia

Colombia come into the match with two wins: over Uzbekistan (3:1) and DR Congo (1:0). The team of Nestor Lorenzo are showing a rare level of pragmatism for the 2026 World Cup – six points without dominant displays, but with full control of the group.

In the match against DR Congo the Colombians could not score for a long time (Munoz netted in the 76th minute), but at the same time they did not allow their opponents to create almost anything dangerous – just 0.38 xG and one shot on target for the Africans over 90 minutes.

Key numbers for Colombia:

• Have won six of their last eight matches.

• Have scored at least one goal in each of their last eight games.

• In their last 10 matches against European national teams they have recorded six wins, two draws and two defeats.

Probable line-up (4-3-3): Camilo Vargas — Daniel Munoz, Davinson Sanchez, Jhon Lucumi, Johan Mojica — Gustavo Puerta, Jefferson Lerma, Jhon Arias — James Rodriguez, Luis Suarez, Luis Diaz.

Absentees: —.

Form and Line-up Portugal

Portugal started the tournament with an uninspiring draw against DR Congo (1:1), which raised questions about the team's ability to break down an organised defence. In the second round they then thrashed Uzbekistan 5:0, with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring twice and becoming the first player in history to score at six World Cups.

However, behind the emphatic scoreline there is an important nuance: an early goal against tournament debutants eased the tension, and thereafter the superiority in class did almost all the work. Against Colombia an early goal is not guaranteed, and it is the South Americans who will provide a real test of strength for Portugal.

Key numbers for Portugal:

• Are unbeaten in seven matches in a row.

• Have scored at least twice in four of their last five matches.

• Against South American national teams they have mixed results – three wins, three draws and four defeats in their last 10 meetings.

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Diogo Costa — Joao Cancelo, Ruben Dias, Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes — Vitinha, Joao Neves – Pedro Neto, Bruno Fernandes, Joao Felix — Cristiano Ronaldo.

Absentees: Tomas Araujo (doubtful).

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into implied probabilities and remove the built-in margin (around 5%). The average line is: Colombia 4.00, draw 3.65, Portugal 1.90.

After removing the margin, a Portugal win is estimated at roughly 50%, a draw at 26%, and a Colombia win at 24%. The market considers Portugal favourites, but the probability of a draw is above average because of the group situation.

Alternative Bets

• X2 (Portugal not to lose) – 1.22–1.26: a basic option for accumulators, given Portugal's quality.

• Both teams to score – Yes – 1.85–1.95: both teams have scored in every match at the tournament.

• Total over 2.5 goals – 2.05: given the attacking potential of both teams and Portugal's motivation to win.

• Portugal (0) handicap – 1.40–1.45: stake refunded in case of a draw, win if Portugal win.

• Portugal individual total over 1.5 goals – 2.00–2.10: Portugal have scored at least twice in four of their last five matches.

Total Goals Prediction

The totals line is moving slightly towards the under: Under is at 1.75–1.85, Over at 1.95–2.05. The market is more likely expecting both teams to score, but an open game is unlikely.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 is a workable option: Colombia have conceded only a long-range strike from Uzbekistan, while Portugal allowed a goal after a set piece (a corner by DR Congo) and have not made many other defensive errors.

Handicap Prediction

Portugal Draw No Bet (0 handicap) is the most balanced position. A win brings a profit, a draw means a refund. A -1 handicap on Portugal is risky but justified given the difference in quality.

Portugal Draw No Bet (0 handicap) at 1.38 looks attractive: Portugal are objectively stronger in terms of their squad and create more chances.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

On the "both teams to score" market there is no clear bias: "Yes" is at 1.85–1.95 (~52%) versus "No" at 1.85–1.90 (~51%). However, the teams have scored 10 goals between them over the two rounds of the World Cup and can again exchange goals.

"Both teams to score – Yes" is the main prediction, given that Portugal will apply pressure and Colombia will counter-attack.

Double Chance Prediction

The X2 option (Portugal not to lose) is the most conservative choice at 1.22–1.26. The 12 option (either team to win) at 1.27–1.32 is for those who do not believe in a draw. The 1X option (Colombia not to lose) is at 1.85–1.92.

X2 is a basic option for accumulators, given Portugal's quality and their ability to go seven matches in a row without defeat.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely scoreline is 1:1: a draw suits Colombia, and Portugal may get bogged down against the South Americans' defence. An alternative is 2:1 in favour of Portugal if Portugal find the key to Colombia's defence. A 1:0 win for Portugal is also possible if the Europeans are solid at the back and manage to neutralise Diaz and Suarez.

When and Where to Watch

The match will kick off on Sunday, 28 June at the Hard Rock Stadium (Miami, USA) at 00:30 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Alireza Faghani (Australia) 

Matches – 14 (International matches, 2025 - 2026);

Average fouls per match – 21;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 4,1;

Matches with a straight red card – 2 out of 14;

Matches with a penalty – 2 out of 14.