Croatia vs Ghana: prediction & betting odds 27 June 2026

Why Croatia Are Favorites for the Match

Croatia are the favorites not only because of their name. The line prices their win at around 1.70-1.75 because the team have more class, more options up front and a more urgent tournament task.

• At the start of the tournament, Croatia were 11th in the FIFA rankings, while Ghana were 73rd.

• Croatia's squad is valued at around 387.3 million euros, while Ghana's squad is worth about 234.35 million.

• Croatia finished on the podium at the last two World Cups: silver in 2018 and bronze in 2022.

• Dalic has Budimir, Kramaric and Mario Pasalic to strengthen the attack during the match.

• Ghana have taken four points, but have scored only one goal in two rounds.

Form and Line-up Croatia

Croatia started the tournament nervously. In the first round, the team twice came from behind against England, but after the break the side could not handle the tempo and lost (2:4). In the second match, Dalic had to spend a long time searching for the key to Panama, and the 1:0 win was delivered by Ante Budimir, who came on after the break.

Croatia's playing style is still built around midfield. Luka Modric controls the tempo, Mateo Kovacic helps move the ball through pressure, and Martin Baturina provides movement between the lines. The problem is defensive speed. When the full-backs push up, space is left behind them, and Panama have already shown that teams can run into it.

The main question is the freshness of the veteran leaders and the choice of striker. After his goal against Panama, Budimir has earned a chance to start, because against Ghana's low block Croatia need a forward who can attack crosses.

Key numbers

• The team scored in both matches at this World Cup.

• Croatia did not win the first half in either of their two matches.

• All three of Croatia's goals at the tournament were scored by different players: Baturina, Musa and Budimir.

Probable Croatia line-up (4-2-3-1):

Dominik Livakovic - Josip Stanisic, Josip Sutalo, Marin Pongracic, Josko Gvardiol - Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic - Mario Pasalic, Martin Baturina, Ivan Perisic - Ante Budimir.

Absentees:-

Form and Line-up Ghana

Ghana get results not through attack, but through patience. In the first round, the team snatched a win over Panama (1:0) in the final seconds, then held England (0:0). Four points after two matches is an excellent position, but it also dictates the plan: do not open up and do not give Croatia free spaces.

Ghana's game is built on a compact defensive block. Against England, the team spent long periods without the ball, closed the center and forced the favorites to load the ball into areas packed with defenders. In attack, everything is simpler: Semenyo's pace, Jordan Ayew's battles and Inaki Williams's runs. Without Mohamed Kudus, who is missing the tournament, there is less creativity, so positional attacks are difficult.

There is a question over the goalkeeper's fitness. Lawrence Ati-Zigi picked up an injury in the match against Panama and was replaced at half-time. Benjamin Asare has already come on in his place and is ready to start. For such a defensive model, the reserve goalkeeper factor is an important point.

Key numbers

• Both of Ghana's matches at the tournament went under 2.5 goals.

• In the first half against Panama, Ghana did not have a single shot.

• Both teams to score - No landed in both of Ghana's matches.

Probable Ghana line-up (5-4-1):

Benjamin Asare - Marvin Senaya, Jerome Opoku, Jonas Adjetey, Clinton Yirenkyi, Gideon Mensah - Antoine Semenyo, Thomas Partey, Kwasi Sibo, Jordan Ayew - Inaki Williams.

Absentees:

Lawrence Ati-Zigi - doubtful.

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the average odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin of about 4.6%. Based on the visible lines, the average market is: Croatia - 1.73, draw - 3.42, Ghana - 5.69.

After the margin is removed, Croatia's win sits at around 55%. For P1, that is a normal base: the market is not giving away a huge gift, but the match scenario fits the favorites better because they need a win.

Alternative Bets

• Croatia Draw No Bet is the most cautious option for the same scenario. It suits anyone who wants to remove the draw risk, but the odds will be lower.

• Under 2.5 goals is a logical low-scoring option at 1.65. Ghana do not open up, Croatia also do not need to fly forward recklessly, so a blowout tempo is not the main scenario here.

• Croatia to win and under 3.5 goals is a stricter option for a 1:0 or 2:0 scoreline. The risk is higher, but the scenario matches the main prediction.

• Both teams to score - No is a bet built on Ghana's two clean-sheet matches and a weaker attacking unit without Kudus.

• Ghana under 1.5 goals is an option against an attack that has scored one goal in two rounds and created little in positional attacks.

Total Goals Prediction

The total is better viewed through a cautious scenario. Ghana have already played low twice, while for Croatia winning matters more than creating an open game. If the favorites score first, the match may close down even more.

The most logical total option is under 2.5 goals at 1.65. Under 3.5 is safer, but the price of 1.23 is too low for a single bet.

Handicap Prediction

Croatia Draw No Bet is the safer version of the main bet. It is refunded in the event of a draw and lands if the favorites win. But the main downside is that the odds will be noticeably lower than on a straight P1.

In terms of meaning, handicap (0) is good if you need the most careful option or an accumulator. But 1.22 is too low for a single bet, so a straight Croatia win at around 1.73 looks more interesting.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

The both teams to score market points more towards No. Ghana have not conceded, but they have also created little themselves: one goal in two rounds, and even that came in added time. Croatia will have more possession, while Ghana will wait for rare breaks.

The scorelines 1:0, 2:0 and 0:0 suit this market. 1:1 is the main risk, but in the base scenario Ghana still live more on rare counters than sustained pressure.

Double Chance Prediction

Double chance 1X almost completely matches the market expectation: Croatia are the favorites, Ghana are playing from a draw, and a straight win for the African team is priced too high. But the price on 1X will be too low for a standalone bet.

It is better to use 1X only in an accumulator. For a single bet, P1 is stronger: it fits Croatia's tournament task better.

Correct Score Prediction

The lowest odds in the table are 1:0 and 1:1 at 6.00. For the prediction, we are choosing 1:0: Ghana know how to shut games down, so it will not be an easy match for the favorites, but pressure through the flanks, set pieces and fresh substitutions should give Croatia one decisive moment.

The alternative is 2:0 at 7.00 if Ghana open up after conceding the first goal. A 1:1 draw remains the main risk for the main prediction: one quick Ghana break can spoil Dalic's careful plan.

When and Where to Watch

Croatia vs Ghana will take place on 28 June 2026 at 22:00 BST at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, USA.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who Will Referee the Match

Drew Fischer (Canada)

Matches – 10 (International matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 30;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.7;
Matches with red cards – 1 out of 10;
Matches with penalties – 3 out of 10.