Egypt vs Iran: prediction & betting odds 27 June 2026

Why There Is No Favourite in the Match

Bookmakers see Egypt as slight favourites, so Hossam Hassan's team are priced at around 2.40-2.45 to win. This is not a price that suggests clear superiority, but rather a reaction to the tournament situation: Egypt are top of the group, have taken four points and control their own task.

• Egypt have already drawn with Belgium (1:1) and beaten New Zealand (3:1).

• A draw is enough for the team to reach the play-offs for the first time in their history.

• In attack, they have Mohamed Salah, Omar Marmoush and Mostafa Ziko — three players who can decide an episode without sustained pressure.

• Across two rounds, Egypt have scored four goals and have not failed to score once.

But this is not a case where the favourite is obvious in every respect. Iran are higher in the FIFA rankings, did not lose to Belgium and approach the match with direct motivation to win. That is why the line on Egypt looks cautious: the market gives them favourite status because of their position in the table and the form of their leaders, but it does not make the match one-sided. This is exactly why Iran Draw No Bet remains a logical option against an overly clear assessment of Egypt.

Form and Line-up Egypt

Egypt started the tournament carefully: first they held Belgium to a draw (1:1), then turned the game around against New Zealand (3:1). The win was historic: the team won a World Cup match for the first time. They now have four points, first place in the group and a clear task — not to lose to Iran.

Their style of play is based on pace up front. Salah has started operating closer to the centre and has already recorded a goal and an assist at the tournament. Marmoush adds runs in behind, while Ziko is useful in the second phase. The risk is also simple: when the full-backs push higher, space is left behind them.

There is one unpleasant issue in terms of readiness. After the match against New Zealand, Egypt could not stay in Seattle and returned to their base in Spokane. That means extra travel before a decisive game, where freshness could prove costly.

Key numbers:

• A draw guarantees Egypt a place in the play-offs.

• Both of Egypt's matches at the tournament have produced Both teams to score.

• There was at least one goal after the break in both of Egypt's matches.

Probable Egypt line-up (4-3-3): Mohamed El Shenawy — Mohamed Hany, Yasser Ibrahim, Mohamed Abdelmonem, Ahmed Fattouh — Marwan Attia, Emam Ashour, Ahmed Zizo — Mostafa Ziko, Omar Marmoush, Mohamed Salah.

Absentees: Hamdi Fathi, Hossam Abdelmaguid — doubtful.

Form and Line-up Iran

Iran are also unbeaten, but they do not have a win. In the first round, the team played New Zealand (2:2), then shut out Belgium (0:0). Two points keep their chances alive, but they need a win to qualify calmly for the play-offs.

Iran build their matches on compactness. The team are comfortable without the ball, do not give up much space in the centre and wait for a moment for Taremi. Without Sardar Azmoun, the attack has fewer options, but the structure did not fall apart even under Belgium's pressure.

The main risk is the quality of the final pass. If Taremi is closed down, Iran lack a player who can consistently break through opposition blocks.

Key numbers:

• Iran have taken two points after two rounds, with both matches ending in draws.

• Iran are 20th in the FIFA rankings.

• The team kept a clean sheet against Belgium.

Probable Iran line-up (5-4-1): Alireza Beiranvand — Ramin Rezaeian, Shoja Khalilzadeh, Hossein Kanaani, Milad Mohammadi, Ehsan Hajsafi — Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Saeid Ezatolahi, Mehdi Ghayedi, Mohammad Mohebi — Mehdi Taremi.

Absentees: —.

The Teams' Chances

Let us convert the average odds into probabilities and remove a margin of around (~ 4.9%). The average line: Egypt — 2.42, draw — 2.76, Iran — 3.65.

After the margin is removed, Egypt's win is estimated at around 39%, the draw at 35% and Iran's success at 26%. For Iran Draw No Bet, this is an important picture: the market itself shows that the draw here is almost as likely as an Egypt win.

Alternative Bets

• Iran, double chance — 1.54-1.55: the most cautious option for the same scenario. It works if you need a pick without the risk of losing in the event of a draw.

• Under 2.5 goals — 1.45-1.48: the bookmaker expects a closed game, where Egypt do not have to fly forward and Iran would be satisfied with a minimal win.

• Both teams to score — No — 1.69: this option is based on Egypt being able to play according to the scoreline, while Iran have already held Belgium scoreless.

• Egypt, under 1.5 goals — 1.40-1.45: a cautious bet against a high-scoring output from a team for whom a draw is enough.

• Iran, over 1.5 goals — 3.60-3.80: Iran need a win, but their attack does not provide a stable margin.

Total Goals Prediction

The totals line is clearly shifted downwards. Under 2.5 goals is priced in the range of 1.45-1.48, while Over 2.5 goals is 2.55-2.65. The market expects a match with a cautious first half and a long battle for one episode.

The safest market is Under 2.5 goals at 1.48. But the price has already dropped sharply, so Iran Draw No Bet looks more interesting: it offers higher odds and does not contradict a low-scoring scenario.

Handicap Prediction

Draw No Bet is the main prediction for this match. An Iran win gives a payout, a draw returns the stake, and defeat to Egypt is the only negative outcome. For a game in which Egypt do not have to take risks, this format looks more logical than an away win.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

In the Both teams to score market, there is a slight lean towards No: 1.65-1.70 (~61%), with Yes at 2.15-2.20 (~47%). Egypt may choose a cautious plan and avoid opening up, while Iran need to avoid turning the game into an exchange of attacks. Scores of 0:0, 1:0, 0:1 or even 2:0 fit this market, but the value is lower than on the visitors' handicap.

Double Chance Prediction

X2 is a calmer version of the main bet. The market covers an Iran win and draw, but odds of around 1.54-1.55 no longer provide the same cushion as Draw No Bet.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely score is 1:0 in Iran's favour: Egypt do not have to open up, while Iran will press through the flanks and look for one decisive episode around the penalty area. That scenario fits Draw No Bet well, because a win for the visitors gives a full payout, while the cautious tempo does not require a big scoreline.

The alternative is 1:1 if Egypt convert a quick break through Salah or Marmoush. This does not break the logic of the main bet: a draw returns the money on Draw No Bet, and the risk starts only if Egypt win.

When and Where to Watch

The match will take place on 27 June 2026 at 04:00 BST at Lumen Field in Seattle, United States.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Szymon Marciniak (Poland) 

Matches – 21 (International matches, 2025 - 2026);

Average fouls per match – 23;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 3,6;

Matches with a straight red card – 3 out of 21;

Matches with a penalty – 7 out of 21.