Japan vs Sweden: prediction & betting odds 26 June 2026

Form and Line-up Japan

Japan made a confident start to the tournament: first they played out a hard-fought draw with the Netherlands (2:2), and then thrashed Tunisia (4:0). In those matches, the team converted their chances superbly. The Blue Samurai conceded only twice, but it could have been even fewer: their xGA difference was positive (1.17). Against a stronger opponent, they gave up possession (40%), while against the African team it was the other way around (62%). Against Sweden, the first scenario looks more likely.

Key numbers:

• Discipline is Japan's strong point: in the first two rounds of the World Cup, their players have not received a single yellow card.

• Japan are in the tournament's top five for shot conversion (28.57%).

• There have been 8.5 corners in Hajime Moriyasu's team's matches across the first two rounds.

Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Zion Suzuki - Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ko Itakura, Hiroki Ito - Ritsu Doan, Kaishu Sano, Ao Tanaka, Keito Nakamura - Junya Ito, Daichi Kamada - Ayase Ueda.

Absentees: Takefusa Kubo (injury), Shuto Machino (virus).

Form and Line-up Sweden

Sweden are having an uneven World Cup under Graham Potter. A bright opening win over Tunisia (5:1) was followed by a painful defeat to the Netherlands by the same 1:5 scoreline. The team score consistently, but that productivity can be explained by the weakness of the opposition: they should potentially have scored noticeably fewer (2.34 xG). Taking into account their other matches this year, the run of Over 3.5 goals landing has reached six games. Any of the 26 registered players is available to take the field.

Key numbers:

• Six goals have been scored in both World Cup rounds involving Sweden.

• Before the break, Sweden play with maximum discipline: they have not yet received any yellow cards in first halves at the tournament.

• In terms of goals conceded above expected (xGADiff), Sweden trail (3.12) only Tunisia (5.54), whom they beat.

Probable line-up (3-5-2): Kristoffer Nordfeldt - Gustaf Lagerbielke, Isak Hien, Victor Lindelof - Jesper Karlstrom, Alexander Bernhardsson, Benjamin Nygren, Yasin Ayari, Gabriel Gudmundsson - Viktor Gyokeres, Alexander Isak.

Who will referee the match

Iván Barton (El Salvador)

Matches – 10 (International matches, 2025-2026);
Average fouls per match – 30;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 5.4;
Matches with a red card – 2 out of 10;
Matches with a penalty – 3 out of 10.