New Zealand vs Belgium: prediction & betting odds 27 June 2026

Why Belgium Are the Match Favorites

Bookmakers see Belgium as overwhelming favorites: a Belgium win against New Zealand is available at odds of 1.18 to 1.21, depending on the bookmaker:

• Belgium are the main contender to qualify from Group G, even without a win so far, while New Zealand are last with one point and a goal difference of -2.

• Belgium have not lost in the group stage: draws with Iran (0:0) and Egypt (1:1) brought two points. A win guarantees a playoff place.

• New Zealand's squad is almost 16 times cheaper than Belgium's group of players (34.3 million euros versus 547.5).

• Belgium have created 3.14 xG in two matches, more than Brazil, Japan, the United States and Morocco.

Form and Line-up New Zealand

New Zealand's return to the World Cup, their first appearance since 2010, is not going particularly well. Of course, the team were not expected to produce confident football in the group stage, but against Iran (2:2) and Egypt (1:3), who are not among the strongest opponents, the underdogs only managed to compete on even terms in spells. The main performer remains target forward Wood, with the Nottingham Forest striker having two assists to his name. The entire attacking game is built through him.

Key numbers for New Zealand:

• In their last 13 matches, Bazeley's team have recorded only one win and 10 defeats.

• New Zealand have allowed 3.37 xGA at the 2026 World Cup against Iran and Egypt, who are not among the most dangerous national teams.

• New Zealand have never advanced from the group stage at a World Cup.

Probable New Zealand line-up (4-2-3-1):

Max Crocombe - Liberato Cacace, Michael Boxall, Finn Surman, Tim Payne - Marko Stamenic, Joe Bell - Elijah Just, Sarpreet Singh, Callum McCowatt - Chris Wood.

Form and Line-up Belgium

Belgium's first major tournament under Garcia began with drawn results. While Belgium improved significantly through substitutions against Egypt (1:1), they started strongly against Iran (0:0) but dropped off sharply after Ngoy was sent off. The Europeans have not lost anything yet: they are capable of reaching first place in the group, but to do so they must show their attacking maximum in the final round. Fortunately, Doku is returning to the squad.

Key numbers for Belgium:

• Belgium have accumulated 3.14 xG in 180 minutes at the 2026 World Cup, a top-15 figure.

• Belgium are unbeaten in 15 straight matches, a run that began back in spring 2025.

• Lukaku has scored 90 goals in 120 matches for Belgium. Twenty-five of them came in World Cup finals and qualifiers.

Probable Belgium line-up (4-2-3-1):

Thibaut Courtois - Maxim De Cuyper, Brandon Mechele, Arthur Theate, Thomas Meunier - Youri Tielemans, Nicolas Raskin - Leandro Trossard, Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku - Romelu Lukaku.

Losses: Nathan Ngoy (suspended).

Team Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~4.8%). Average line: New Zealand - 14.11, draw - 6.96, Belgium - 1.20.

After removing the margin, Belgium's win is estimated at roughly 79%, the draw at 14% and New Zealand's success at only 7%. The market is unanimous: bookmakers consider the outcome of this meeting all but decided.

Alternative Bets

• Belgium (-1.5) - 1.58: Belgium are superior to their opponent in every department, and a win by the minimum margin would look like a surprise.

• Belgium, over 1.5 goals - 1.28: a team with this squad against the group outsider must score twice, and any other development would be a sensation.

• Only Belgium to score - 1.78: given the difference in class, a clean sheet against the All Whites looks like a very likely scenario.

• Belgium, double chance - 1.01-1.05: an extremely conservative anchor for any accumulator.

Total Goals Prediction

The market is confident in scoring at the 2.5-goal level, but skeptical about four or more goals. Over 2.5 at 1.53-1.58 is a workable position built around a 2:1 or 3:0 scoreline in Belgium's favor. New Zealand are unlikely to withstand the pressure, but a rout is not guaranteed either.

Handicap Prediction

Belgium (-1.5) at 1.58 is the most balanced position: Belgium should win by two or more goals. Belgium (-2) at 1.90 is attractive in terms of odds, but carries additional risk.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

There is a clear market lean toward No: 1.55-1.62 versus Yes at 2.30-2.35. Bookmakers doubt New Zealand's scoring potential. For example, in the last match against Egypt, the All Whites conceded three times and barely managed to answer with one goal. Belgium, with sufficient pressure, can stop their opponent from creating much danger at all.

Both teams to score - No looks more logical: Belgium are used to operating in an organized way defensively.

Double Chance Prediction

Belgium, double chance at 1.01-1.02, is a symbolic price that reflects the market's complete confidence. The 12 option at 1.08-1.11 will suit those who rule out a draw and are backing a straight win for the favorite.

New Zealand's double chance (1X) is priced at decent odds. The All Whites are unlikely to hold out against a motivated favorite.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely score is 2:0 in Belgium's favor at 5.20: Belgium should control the game confidently and convert several of the chances they create, without allowing New Zealand to even grab a goal. The alternative is 1:0 at 6.60, if Belgium play pragmatically and settle for a narrow result.

When and Where to Watch

The match will take place on 27 June 2026 at 04:00 BST. The venue is BC Place in Vancouver, Canada.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Adham Mahadmeh (Jordan) 

Matches – 14 (International matches, 2025 - 2026);

Average fouls per match – 23;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 4,1;

Matches with a straight red card – 2 out of 14;

Matches with a penalty – 4 out of 14.