Norway vs France: prediction & betting odds 26 June 2026

Form and Line-up Norway

Norway impressed at the start of the World Cup, thrashing Iraq (4:1) and showing a powerful attacking game. In the second round, the Scandinavians beat Senegal (3:2), but the price of that victory was high — the team approach the decisive match in poor physical condition.

In the warm-up matches before the tournament, the picture was mixed: a confident win over Sweden (3:1) came alongside a draw with Switzerland (0:0) and a defeat to the Netherlands (1:2). Norway prefer to operate on the counter-attack, using the speed of their wide forwards and midfield runners from deeper positions. However, against France's organised defence and without fresh legs, this model is doomed to fail.

Key Numbers for Norway:

• Both of their matches at the tournament finished with Over 4.5 goals (4:1 and 3:2).

• Erling Haaland scored a brace in each game.

• Norway conceded at least one goal in four of their last five official matches.

Probable Norway line-up (4-4-2):

Orjan Nyland — Marcus Pedersen, Kristoffer Ajer, Leo Ostigard, David Moller Wolfe — Martin Odegaard, Sander Berge, Fredrik Aursnes, Antonio Nusa — Erling Haaland, Alexander Sorloth.

Absentees: Julian Ryerson (doubtful).

Form and Line-up France

France made a confident start to the tournament, recording a win over Senegal (3:1). The second match against Iraq was not straightforward: the game was interrupted for two hours because of a thunderstorm, but that did not prevent Deschamps' team from claiming a second successive victory (3:0) and securing an early place in the play-offs. The Mbappe and Olise partnership deserves particular attention: the former has four goals, while the latter has three assists. Dembele also registered a goal and an assist against Iraq, with that strike becoming the Ballon d'Or holder's first at World Cups.

Key Numbers for France:

• France have cleared Over 2.5 goals in 11 consecutive matches.

• Kylian Mbappe has scored two goals in each of the team's matches at the tournament.

• France have won eight of their last 10 matches against European national teams.

Probable France line-up (4-2-3-1):

Mike Maignan — Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba, Lucas Digne — Manu Kone, Adrien Rabiot — Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola — Kylian Mbappe.

Absentees: —.

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~5%). Average line: Norway 4.40, draw 3.90, France 1.70.

After removing the margin, France's win is estimated at around 55%, the draw at 24% and Norway's success at 21%. At the same time, 24% on the draw is a notable figure: the market allows for a scenario in which a rotated Norway side shut up shop and play to preserve second place, which would suit both teams.

Alternative Bets

• Over 2.5 goals — 1.65–1.70: the two teams have scored 13 goals between them in two rounds. Even with rotation, the attacking potential remains.

• Both teams to score — Yes — 1.55–1.60: Norway have scored in both matches, and France have too. The Scandinavian defence with reserves is vulnerable, but the French can also concede on the counter-attack.

• France, over 1.5 goals — 1.55–1.65: Les Bleus have scored at least two goals in 14 of their last 15 matches.

• Kylian Mbappe to score or assist — Yes — 1.50: France's attacking leader is in peak form (four goals at the tournament), and against Norway's defence he is guaranteed to create dangerous moments.

Total Goals Prediction

The totals line leans towards over: Over 2.5 at 1.65–1.70, Under 2.5 at 2.10–2.20. The market expects a high-scoring match, considering the attacking potential of both teams, especially given the problems in the rotated Norway defence.

Over 2.5 at 1.65 is the most likely scenario: even with rotation, France have enough resources for two or three goals, while Norway with a reserve line-up are unlikely to be able to shut up shop for long. The optimal position is Over 2.5 at 1.65 with an expectation of a 2:1 or 3:1 scoreline in favour of Les Bleus.

Handicap Prediction

France Draw No Bet is the most balanced position. A win means the bet wins, while a draw means a refund. France (-1) is risky but justified given the fatigue of Norway's players and the lack of motivation (they are already through to the play-offs).

France (-1) at 2.10–2.20 looks attractive: the difference in class between Norway's reserves and the Les Bleus first-choice team should translate into a win.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

In the both teams to score market, there is a clear edge towards Yes: 1.60–1.70 (~63%) versus No at 2.20–2.30 (~45%). Both teams have scored in both matches at the tournament, and with Norway's defensive rotation, the probability of goals at both ends only increases.

Both teams to score — Yes is a workable option. Even if France dominate, Norway are capable of responding on counter-attacks involving Odegaard and Haaland.

Double Chance Prediction

The X2 option (France will not lose) is the most conservative route at 1.15–1.20. The 12 option (either team to win) at 1.23 is for those who are confident in a decisive, high-scoring finish. 1X (Norway will not lose) at 1.95 – 2.25 is a bet on a shock or a closed match with a draw.

X2 is the basic option for accumulators, but given Norway's motivation and the status of the match, 12 looks preferable.

Individual Totals

Norway Individual Total (1.5):

Norway under 1.5 goals at 1.30–1.33 is a reliable market. Even considering their goalscoring potential, it will be extremely difficult for the Scandinavians to score twice against France's organised defence and with a reserve line-up.

France Individual Total (1.5):

France over 1.5 goals at 1.64–1.66 is a reliable market. The French have consistently scored two goals in 14 of their last 15 matches, and in the upcoming game they are unlikely to stop at one goal.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely score is 2:1 in France's favour: Les Bleus will patiently break down the rotated Norway defence and convert several chances against a tired opponent. The alternative is 3:1 if most of Norway's first-choice players do not take the field.

The combo of France double chance + Over 2.5 goals is the main bet at odds of 2.05.

When and Where to Watch

The match will take place on 26 June 2026 at 20:00 BST. The venue is Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, United States.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Michael Oliver (England) 

Matches – 6 (International matches, 2026);

Average fouls per match – 23;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 4,8;

Matches with a straight red card – 0 out of 6;

Matches with a penalty – 0 out of 6.