Odds overview
Norway and Portugal are almost evenly matched in the 1X2 market: Norway to win is 2.55 and Portugal to win is 2.60, while the draw has longer odds of 3.75. At the 2.5-goal line, Over is shorter than Under at 1.52 versus 2.45. In the main handicap market, Norway Draw No Bet is slightly shorter than Portugal Draw No Bet at 1.88 versus 1.92.
Why there is no clear favourite
The bookmakers' odds are exceptionally close: Norway to win is 2.55, Portugal to win is 2.60, and the draw is available at 3.75.
• Norway opened with a 3:2 home win over Denmark, with Erling Haaland scoring twice and Oscar Bobb adding the other goal.
• Portugal, under Jorge Jesus in his first cycle in charge of the national team, beat Wales 1:0 thanks to a goal from João Félix.
Form and Line-up Norway
Ahead of the September fixtures, head coach Ståle Solbakken refreshed the squad by calling up four new players — Odin Bjørtuft, Fredrik Sjøvold, Ole Didrik Blomberg and Erik Botheim — giving the team more options before Matchday 2. This squad secured a high-scoring 3:2 win over neighbours Denmark, putting Norway top of League A Group 4 after the opening round.
- Norway have played five consecutive halves at home with over 1.5 goals in the UEFA Nations League.
- Norway have taken over 3.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Under 24.5 fouls were recorded in 9 of Norway's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Norway line-up (4-3-3): Ørjan Nyland, Fredrik Aursnes, Kristoffer Ajer, Torbjørn Heggem, Julian Ryerson, Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, Martin Ødegaard, Antonio Nusa, Erling Haaland, Oscar Bobb
Unavailable: David Møller Wolfe (suspended)
Form and Line-up Portugal
Portugal beat Wales 1:0 at home in the opening round of the 2026–27 UEFA Nations League, but sit second behind Norway because they have scored fewer goals.
Portugal have been consistent: they have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Under 3.5 goals were scored in 9 of Portugal's last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Portugal's opponents committed under 13.5 fouls in each of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Under 5.5 yellow cards were shown in 9 of Portugal's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Portugal line-up (4-1-3-2): Diogo Costa, João Cancelo, Rúben Dias, Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes, Rúben Neves, Pedro Neto, Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes, João Félix, Cristiano Ronaldo
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Norway a 37.6% chance and fair odds of 2.66, against market odds of 2.55. Portugal have a 36.9% chance, with fair odds of 2.71 versus market odds of 2.60. The draw has a 25.6% chance: fair odds are 3.91 and market odds are 3.75.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway to win | 2.55 | 2.66 | 37.6% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.91 | 25.6% |
| Portugal to win | 2.60 | 2.71 | 36.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over is markedly shorter than Under — 1.52 versus 2.45. At 3.5 goals, Under has the edge at 1.65 versus 2.25 for Over.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.45 | 1.52 |
| 3.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
Handicap prediction
The odds for Norway (-1.5) and Portugal (-1.5) are close at 4.30 and 4.10. There is also little difference at +1.5: Norway (+1.5) are 1.18 and Portugal (+1.5) are 1.20. Norway (-1) are offered at 3.55 versus 3.60 for Portugal (-1), while Norway (+1) and Portugal (+1) are both 1.25. At handicap (0), Norway Draw No Bet is slightly shorter at 1.88 versus 1.92 for Portugal Draw No Bet.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | -1.5 | 4.10 |
| 1.18 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
| 3.55 | -1 | 3.60 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.88 | 0 | 1.92 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes looks more likely at odds of 1.45; Both teams to score – No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is offered at 2.65.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.45 |
| No | 2.65 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/25
|
29/100
|
1/2
|
| William Hill |
11/20
|
3/10
|
11/25
|
| 888sport |
1/2
|
29/100
|
1/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Norway — 1.5 goals; Portugal — 1.5 goals.
Norway team goals
Norway team goals: Over 0.5 is quoted at 1.17 versus 4.15 for Under 0.5; at the 1-goal line, Over is 1.37 and Under is 2.85. The odds at 1.5 are almost level: Under is 1.80 and Over is 1.95. At the 2-goal line, Under is shorter at 1.35 versus 2.90 for Over.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 2.85 | 1 | 1.37 |
| 1.80 | 1.5 | 1.95 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
Portugal team goals
Portugal team goals: Over 0.5 is offered at 1.18 and Under 0.5 at 4.10; at the 1-goal line, Over is 1.40 versus 2.75 for Under. At 1.5 goals, Under is shorter at 1.75 versus 2.00 for Over. At the 2-goal line, the odds are 1.35 for Under and 2.95 for Over.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.10 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
| 2.75 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.75 | 1.5 | 2.00 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.95 |
Who Will Referee the Match
François Letexier (France)
Matches – 12 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 2.9;
Matches with a red card – 1 of 12;
Matches with a penalty – 5 of 12.
