Panama vs England: prediction & betting odds 27 June 2026

Why England Are Favourites for the Match

What else could they be? Even defeat to Ghana would not have changed that. England are the fourth favourites for the title at odds only one and a half times higher than the favourites, France, at 7.50.

• At the 2018 World Cup, England thrashed Panama 6:1, having only seven shots on target.

• Harry Kane will be in England's line-up, having scored a hat-trick against Panama eight years ago.

• The entire Panama squad is worth only slightly more, 34.5 million euros, than England's 18th-most valuable player Djed Spence, who is valued at 30 million euros.

Form and Line-up Panama

Despite sitting bottom of the group, Panama have conceded only two goals. That is fewer than 22 teams at this tournament, although some of them have already played three matches. The team lost by the same 0:1 scoreline to Ghana and Croatia. At the same time, to stop their opponents, the Canal Men do not need to foul roughly: on average, they have received 1.5 yellow cards per game. In effect, Thomas Christiansen has no squad problems. Only Adalberto Carrasquilla is feeling discomfort due to fatigue, but the central midfielder has not played a single minute at this tournament.

Key numbers:

• Panama have conceded 0.90 goals fewer than predicted for them, 2.90 xGA.

• The Canal Men’s last three matches have finished with Under 2.5 goals.

• Panama have only 0.07 xG per shot.

Probable line-up (5-4-1): Orlando Mosquera – Amir Murillo, Giovani Ramos, Jose Cordoba, Andres Andrade, Cesar Blackman – Cristian Martinez, Yoel Barcenas, Carlos Harvey, Puma Rodriguez – Jose Fajardo.

Absentees: Adalberto Carrasquilla (doubtful).

Form and Line-up England

How should England's form be described? The team are fine, but their motivation is not quite so smooth. While against Croatia the players in white ran themselves into the ground so that the opposing defence could not relax, and struck very accurately and sharply enough for Dominik Livakovic to make seven saves, most of which were highlight-worthy, against Ghana they looked amorphous. It was as if the ball was radio-controlled and would bypass all the defenders in any case. But no miracle happened. You get out what you put in: 4:2 against Croatia and 0:0 against Ghana. Because of that, the English are now top of the group, but they are ahead of Ghana only on goal difference, by one goal. Everyone is fit, if we take into account that Trevoh Chalobah has already replaced the injured Tino Livramento in the squad.

Key numbers:

• Across the last three World Cups, including this one, no more than three goals have generally been scored in England's matches over 90 minutes: 11 of 14 games.

• In four of England's previous six World Cup matches, at least one side failed to score. Twice, it was a 0:0 draw.

• Despite scoring two goals per game at this tournament, Thomas Tuchel's team have fallen 0.56 goals short of their xG.

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Jordan Pickford – Reece James, Ezri Konsa, John Stones, Nico O'Reilly – Elliot Anderson, Declan Rice – Noni Madueke, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon – Harry Kane.

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin, around 5%. The average line is as follows: Panama 15.44, draw 8.19, England 1.23.

After the margin is removed, belief in an England win is just as unshakeable at 85.5%, the draw takes 12.8%, and a Panama win is rated at only 6.8%. So simply backing the Three Lions to win is not profitable: you need to choose a handicap.

Alternative Bets

• Panama (+2.5) – 1.59–1.66: this wins if Panama lose by no more than two goals.

• Over 2.5 goals – 1.42–1.46: considering they have only one over between them from four possible matches, this is quite optimistic.

• England to win to nil – 1.79–1.83: a perfectly realistic outcome.

Total Goals Prediction

The market is ambiguous. On the one hand, the odds on the classic over carry more weight, but only if there are three goals. The chances of anything more are small.

Panama will defend with nine or even 10 outfield players, so England need to score at least one first, and quickly.

Handicap Prediction

England fans want to see another 6:1, but the general trends in the teams' play show that Panama are more likely to aim for a draw than England are for a rout. After all, a routine win is enough for the Three Lions to finish top of the group. In this case, it is more profitable to back the outsider's positive handicap.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

The fact Panama have not scored a single goal up to this point has its reasons: only five shots on target in two matches, while the danger of their chances is highly questionable, averaging 0.64 xG. Therefore, the bet that at least one of the teams will not score is, of course, preferable.

Double Chance Prediction

Panama are considered so weak that most bookmakers do not even offer the option of an England double chance. If it is available, your winnings will tend towards zero. It only makes sense to bet on Panama double chance.

Correct Score Prediction

As for the correct score, England wins to nil naturally dominate here. The most likely outcome is a comfortable two-goal margin, while the seemingly distant 1:0 and 4:0 have very similar odds.

When and Where to Watch

The match will take place on 28 June at 00:00 Moscow time (27 June at 17:00 EDT) at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, USA.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who Will Referee the Match

 Abdulrahman Al-Jassim (Qatar)

Matches – 11 (International matches, 2025–2026);

Average fouls per match – 31;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4.2; 

Matches with red cards – 0 out of 11;

Matches with penalties – 5 out of 11.