Paraguay vs Australia: prediction & betting odds 26 June 2026

Form and Line-up Paraguay

Paraguay go into the decisive match after a dramatic win over Turkey (1:0), earned while playing with 10 men. Matias Galarza scored the only goal in the second minute, netting the fastest goal of the tournament (64 seconds). After that, the South Americans withstood a wave of pressure, and in the 45+2nd minute they were reduced to 10 men after Miguel Almiron was sent off for breaking the new rule (covering his mouth with his hand while speaking to an opponent) — the first such incident in World Cup history. Despite being a man down, the team held on to the winning scoreline, showing fantastic defensive organisation and character. Earlier, the team suffered a heavy defeat to the United States (1:4), but that game showed that with the right discipline and an early goal, the South Americans can close down space and survive.

In attack, the key figures are Galarza (a quick forward who uses space) and Almiron (despite the sending-off, his creativity in midfield is important, but he will miss the match against Australia through suspension).

Key numbers for Paraguay:

• They have taken only one corner — the worst figure at the tournament.

• In World Cup qualifying, they were the second most reliable team in South America — only 10 goals conceded in 18 matches (only Ecuador conceded fewer).

• The win over Turkey was the team's first in their last five World Cup matches.

Probable line-up (4-4-2): Orlando Gill — Juan Caceres, Gustavo Gomez, Omar Alderete, Junior Alonso — Mauricio, Andres Cubas, Diego Gomez, Matias Galarza — Isidro Pitta, Julio Enciso.

Absentees: Miguel Almiron (suspended).

Form and Line-up Australia

Australia go into the match against Paraguay after a defeat to the United States (0:2), which ended the team's winning start (2:0 against Turkey). In the game against the Americans, the Socceroos looked passive: they conceded an own goal in the 11th minute (Cameron Burgess turned the ball into his own net) and then let in a second goal from a set piece (Alex Freeman, 43rd minute). In the second half, the Australians tried to fight back, but they managed only three shots (one on target) and did not create a real threat.

However, the key factor is the tournament situation: Australia would be satisfied with a draw, as they have a better goal difference (0 compared with Paraguay's -2). The Australians have already shown they can survive with low possession (28% against Turkey and a 2:0 win), but against Paraguay, who will be forced to attack, they will need to be even more organised.

Key numbers for Australia:

• At World Cups, they have lost four of five matches against teams from South America.

• They have received four yellow cards in two matches (the fourth-worst figure).

• In their last six matches, they have gone over 2.5 goals only once.

Probable line-up (5-4-1): Patrick Beach — Jacob Italiano, Alessandro Circati, Harry Souttar, Cameron Burgess, Jordan Bos — Cristian Volpato, Aiden O'Neill, Paul Okon-Engstler, Connor Metcalfe — Nestory Irankunda.

Absentees: Mathew Leckie (doubtful).

Who will referee the match

Clément Turpin (France)

Matches – 25 (International matches, 2025-2026);
Average fouls per match – 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 2.8;
Matches with a red card – 6 out of 25;
Matches with a penalty – 13 out of 25.