Odds overview
Paris Saint-Germain are clear favourites: 1 at 1.43, compared with 5.10 for the draw and 6.60 for 2. In the main total market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.70. Monaco (+1.5) at 1.75 is preferred to Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5) at 2.08.
Why Paris Saint-Germain are favourites
Bookmakers offer odds of 1.43 on a Paris Saint-Germain win, 5.10 on the draw and 6.60 on Monaco to win.
- The Parisians remain prolific in attack and rank third for goals scored in the pre-match Ligue 1 standings, averaging 2.0 goals per game.
- The visitors come into the match amid a congested schedule: their game against Marseille took place only three days after an away European fixture, increasing the physical burden on the squad.
Form and Line-up Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain began the French league season with two high-scoring away draws — 2:2 against Rennes and 2:2 with Lille.
At home, the team show solid control in defence and at set pieces: in their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches, Paris Saint-Germain's opponents have not attempted more than 11.5 shots per game, while Paris Saint-Germain have never lost the corner count.
Key numbers:
- At least 3 goals were scored in 9 of Paris Saint-Germain's last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- Paris Saint-Germain had more than 12.5 shot attempts in 10 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- Paris Saint-Germain had at least 6 shots on target in 10 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
Probable Paris Saint-Germain line-up (4-3-3): Matvey Safonov — Achraf Hakimi — Marquinhos — Willian Pacho — Lucas Beraldo — Warren Zaire-Emery — Vitinha — Fabian Ruiz — Maghnes Akliouche — Ferran Torres — Desire Doue
Nuno Mendes, Joao Neves, Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembele and Ibrahim Mbaye were absent from the squad for the game on 28 August.
Form and Line-up Monaco
Monaco, under Filipe Luis, took six points from their opening two matches, beating Le Havre (1:0) and Marseille (2:0), and moved top of the table with a 3:0 goal difference.
Monaco's away matches are marked by high aggression: the team received at least 2 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away games, while their opponents committed no more than 13 fouls against them.
Key numbers:
- Monaco's opponents had at least 4 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- At least 9 corners were taken in 8 of Monaco's last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Monaco's opponents had more than 12.5 shot attempts in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
Probable Monaco line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukas Hradecky — Vanderson — Sadibou Sane — Eric Dier — Nazinho — Denis Zakaria — Lamine Camara — Mamadou Coulibaly — Aleksandr Golovin — Stanis Idumbo — Paris Brunner
Folarin Balogun has been training individually, Ansu Fati is receiving treatment for a calf injury, and Edan Diop has partially returned to training.
Team chances
A Paris Saint-Germain win is available at average odds of 1.43; the fair odds are 1.50, with a probability of 66.8%. The figures for the draw are 5.10, 5.34 and 18.7%, while those for a Monaco win are 6.60, 6.91 and 14.5%, respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain to win | 1.43 | 1.50 | 66.8% |
| Draw | 5.10 | 5.34 | 18.7% |
| Monaco to win | 6.60 | 6.91 | 14.5% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is offered at 2.70 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.45, underlining expectations of a high-scoring game. At the 3.5 line, Under at 1.75 is shorter than Over at 2.10.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.70 | 1.45 |
| 3.5 | 1.75 | 2.10 |
Handicap prediction
Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5) is available at 2.08, while Monaco (+1.5) is at 1.75. At the 1-goal line, Paris Saint-Germain (-1) is offered at 1.62 and Monaco (+1) at 2.25. With a zero handicap, Paris Saint-Germain Draw No Bet is 1.14 compared with 4.60 for Monaco Draw No Bet.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.08 | -1.5 | — |
| — | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.62 | -1 | — |
| — | 1 | 2.25 |
| 1.14 | 0 | 4.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.65, while Both teams to score - No is at 2.20; the shorter odds suggest goals from both teams are considered the more likely outcome.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.20 |
Double chance prediction
1X at 1.13 and 12 at 1.19 look considerably more likely than X2 at 2.85.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.13 | 1.19 | 2.85 |
Team total prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Paris Saint-Germain — 2.5 goals, Monaco — 1 goal.
Paris Saint-Germain team total
Paris Saint-Germain team total: Under 0.5 goals is 8.50 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.04. At the 2-goal line, Under is available at 2.20 and Over at 1.65; at 2.5, they are 1.70 and 2.10 respectively. For the 3-goal line, Under is 1.35 and Over is 2.95.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 8.50 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.20 | 2 | 1.65 |
| 1.70 | 2.5 | 2.10 |
| 1.35 | 3 | 2.95 |
Monaco team total
Monaco team total: Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.40 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.55. At the 1-goal line, Under is 1.58 compared with 2.30 for Over, while at 1.5 they are 1.28 and 3.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | 0.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.58 | 1 | 2.30 |
| 1.28 | 1.5 | 3.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jerome Brisard (France)
Matches — 18 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.4;
Matches with red cards — 5 of 18;
Matches with penalties — 3 of 18.
