Senegal vs Iraq: prediction & betting odds 26 June 2026

Why Senegal Are Match Favourites

Bookmakers have virtually no doubt that Senegal will take third place in Group I, so there is nothing surprising about odds moving towards 1.00 (1.02). It is also almost impossible to imagine Iraq in that position (10.0).

• Senegal were denied the African champions' title this year only after an appeal by Morocco, while Iraq did not even reach the semi-finals of the most recent Arab Nations Cup.

• Both teams have failed to pick up points at the World Cup, but the African side have a much better goal difference (-3 to -6).

• Iliman Ndiaye alone is worth more than twice as much (55 million euros) as the entire Iraq squad (21.2 million euros).

Form and Line-up Senegal

Although Senegal tormented the French defence early in the game, the team lost to them (1:3) and to Norway (2:3), who made use of the African side's mistakes. It is important to note that Pape Thiaw's players did not shut down the European goalscorers: Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland each scored a brace. Still, the Lions of Teranga's attack is not toothless, as shown by their three goals and their xG overperformance by 0.76 points.

During the match against the Scandinavians, Pape Thiaw had a problem: midway through the second half, goalkeeper Edouard Mendy left the pitch with a knee injury. That had a psychological effect on his team-mates, as Kalidou Koulibaly admitted after making a costly mistake before the break. If Mendy does not recover, Mory Diaw will start in goal, and he has little international experience.

Key numbers:

• In four of Senegal's previous five matches, one of the sides scored three goals, which brought them victory.

• In four of their nine matches this year, excluding the technical defeat in the Africa Cup final, Senegal kept a clean sheet.

• The African side have converted 13.64% of their shots at this World Cup.

Probable line-up (4-3-3): Mory Diaw - Krepin Diatta, Moussa Niakhate, Kalidou Koulibaly, Malik Diouf - Lamine Camara, Idrissa Gueye, Pape Gueye - Ismaila Sarr, Nicolas Jackson, Sadio Mane.

Absentees: Edouard Mendy (doubtful).

Form and Line-up Iraq

Iraq reached the World Cup after 40 years, so making any serious demands of the team is not constructive. The side showed its level. It was unable to punch above its weight. The team switched on for short spells, but Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe, who can score against opponents of any level, did not spare the Lions of Mesopotamia either. The Frenchman even scored a hat-trick.

Key numbers:

• Iraq are in the World Cup's bottom five for the percentage of opponents' shots that have become goals (22.58%).

• In four of Iraq's previous six matches, one of the teams scored at least two goals.

• In the first two rounds of the tournament, Iraq allowed their opponents to create five scoring chances each.

Probable line-up (4-1-4-1): Ahmed Fadhil - Hussein Ali, Zaid Tahseen, Akam Hashim, Merchas Doski - Amir Al-Ammari - Ibrahim Bayesh, Zaid Ismail, Zidane Iqbal, Ahmed Kadhim - Ali Al-Hamadi.

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~5%). Average line: Senegal 1.29, draw 6.74, Iraq 13.12.

After the margin is stripped out, a Senegal win is still rated at a weighty 77.5%, the draw at 15%, and an Iraq victory at only 7.5%. The hosts' advantage is so large that a handicap (-1.5) is also worth considering.

Alternative Bets

• Senegal (-1.5) - 1.64-1.68: a minimum win means a winning bet, a draw means a losing bet.

• Senegal over 1.5 goals - 1.30: in four of their last six matches, the Lions of Teranga scored at least two goals.

• Over 2.5 goals - 1.49-1.55: Over 2.5 goals landed in all four Group I matches.

• Senegal to win to nil - 1.88-1.92: for those who believe in the African side's defence.

Total Goals Prediction

The market is voting in favour of a high-scoring match. The price on the classic over is unusually low.

Senegal have high potential to win heavily. Iraq's dreadful mistakes in the opening matches echo that. The optimal option is Over 2.5 goals.

Handicap Prediction

The gap between the teams is such that backing Senegal Draw No Bet is simply pointless. Protection against a refund in the event of a narrow win may also be unnecessary. Right now, Pape Thiaw's team are the only third-placed side without a point. They will go all out to score plenty, so Senegal (-1.5) will be ideal.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

Although Iraq had a decent 15 shots, after two rounds they are the only team to have hit the target just once. With that kind of accuracy, the chances of Both Teams to Score landing fall sharply into negative territory: around 40% probability.

Double Chance Prediction

Bookmakers see the option of Senegal avoiding defeat as a winning bet by default (1.02-1.06), so there is no value in backing it, while Iraq double chance is not as hypothetical as a straight win: the odds on it have fallen below 4.0 with some bookmakers.

Correct Score Prediction

Despite the edge towards Over, the lowest price with bookmakers (5.60) is on a 2:0 scoreline in Senegal's favour. Their clean-sheet but emphatic 3:0 win is priced at around 6.40. It is clear there is belief in the Lions of Teranga's defence.

When and Where to Watch

The match will take place on 26 June at 20:00 BST (15:00 EDT) at BMO Field in Toronto, Canada.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Anthony Taylor (England) 

Matches – 7 (International matches, 2026);

Average fouls per match – 23;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 4,7;

Matches with a straight red card – 1 out of 7;

Matches with a penalty – 1 out of 7.