Turkey vs Paraguay: prediction & betting odds 20 June 2026

Betting Tip

After their opening failures in Group D, both national teams are backed into a corner, so there should be no expectation of compromise. However, while the South Americans were never rated highly in the first place, this match is a defining moment for the nominal hosts, who have to prove their worth. Supporters expect Vincenzo Montella's team not just to rehabilitate themselves, but to work on their mistakes. Dropping points in this game would put even a place in the round of 32 from third position under huge doubt, so the favourites' motivation will be immense.

The tactical pattern in this meeting will be one-sided: Turkey will again take control of the ball and spend long spells combining around the opposition penalty area. However, after the Australian lesson, Montella must attack with maximum caution. To avoid being caught by another quick break, the full-backs will no longer both sprint into the final third at the same time - Ferdi Kadioglu and Zeki Celik must take turns covering the space behind. The defensive line should also not be pushed too high, maintaining compactness and not moving the defenders up towards the centre circle, so as not to repeat the breakdowns from the first match.

Paraguay will predictably set up a deep "bus" with two defensive lines. The Paraguayans do not know how to go forward first and will not do so, because there are simply no creators in their squad for quality positional play. Gustavo Alfaro will make the team wait patiently for mistakes from the nominal hosts and rely on rare set pieces or long balls. All their activity in the previous game came down to blatant simulation, with Miguel Almiron of Atlanta United diving so zealously in the opposition penalty area that the referee initially believed him, but after a VAR prompt cancelled the American player's booking and rightly punished the Paraguay winger with a yellow card. The Americans clearly showed that this defensive block can be opened up easily by third-man passes. Kenan Yildiz's return to the left flank will add verticality to the attack and free up Guler, who will get more space in the half-space for his trademark incisive chipped passes.

Turkey have faced only one South American national team at World Cups - Brazil. They lost narrowly both times, but that was at the 2002 World Cup, when Selecao won the title for the last time in their history. The difference in player quality and organisation is huge, while Paraguay's defence is now far too unsettled. The bookmakers rate a straight win for the favourites at excellent odds above evens, and that has to be used.