Turkey vs United States: prediction & betting odds 26 June 2026

Form and Line-up Turkey

Turkey came into the tournament as a dark horse, but after two rounds they were left with no points and no goals scored. Defeats to Australia (0:2) and Paraguay (0:1) knocked Vincenzo Montella's team out of playoff contention ahead of schedule.

But in terms of performance, the Turks did not look weak. The problem has not been getting into the penalty area, but the final shot. In two matches, Turkey had 62 shots, had more than 70% possession both times and still failed to score. This is no longer a weak attack, but a failure of finishing.

Montella uses a 4-2-3-1 system and relies on individual quality. Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz look for the ball between the lines, Kerem Akturkoglu and Baris Alper Yilmaz stretch defences on the flanks, while Hakan Calhanoglu conducts play from deep and adds set-pieces. Physically, Turkey look fine, but psychologically the team have been hit by two goalless defeats. On the other hand, there is no longer any tournament burden: they can play more boldly and use their attacking potential to the maximum.

Key numbers:

• Turkey have not scored a single goal in two matches at the tournament.

• Turkey have had 62 shots across two rounds and had more than 70% possession both times.

• Turkey have not lost on yellow cards with a (0) handicap in regular time in their last seven matches at the World Cup and in World Cup qualifying. The national team have recorded five wins by this metric in that period.

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Ugurcan Cakir - Zeki Celik, Merih Demiral, Caglar Soyuncu, Ferdi Kadioglu - Hakan Calhanoglu, Salih Ozcan - Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, Kerem Akturkoglu - Baris Alper Yilmaz.

Absentees: -.

Form and Line-up USA

The USA are having a very strong group stage. Wins over Paraguay (4:1) and Australia (2:0) brought six points, first place in the group and a place in the next round after just two matches. Now the task is different: not to lose important players before the playoffs.

In terms of play, the USA are dangerous in transitions. The team move the ball forward quickly and make good use of Folarin Balogun's runs and the width on the flanks. But the match against Turkey no longer requires maximum involvement from the squad. The USA have a yellow-card risk for Chris Richards, Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun and Antonee Robinson, while Christian Pulisic has only just returned to team training after a calf problem.

Rotation is therefore expected. Reserves such as Ricardo Pepi, Alejandro Zendejas, Sebastian Berhalter and Cristian Roldan will add freshness, but that is not the same level of cohesion the starters had in the first two rounds. The USA's main risk is not physical condition, but focus. The team have already completed their task and will be thinking about the next match.

Key numbers and facts

• The USA won their first two group matches with a combined goal difference of 6:1.

• The team have already reached the next round and secured first place in the group.

• Four the USA players risk suspension if they receive another yellow card.

• The USA have scored at least two goals in each group match.

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Matt Freese - Alex Freeman, Tim Ream, Mark McKenzie, Max Arfsten - Cristian Roldan, Sebastian Berhalter - Timothy Weah, Giovanni Reyna, Alejandro Zendejas - Ricardo Pepi.

Absentees: Christian Pulisic has returned to training after a calf injury, but his place in the starting line-up is in doubt. Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards and Antonee Robinson may be protected because of the risk of suspension.

Team Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~5%). Average line: Turkey 3.53, draw 4.04, USA 1.91.

After removing the margin, the USA's win is estimated at around 50%, the draw at 23% and Turkey's success at 27%. At the same time, 23% on the draw is an interesting option: bookmakers allow for a scenario in which two opponents without major motivation share the points.

Alternative Bets

• Turkey (0) - 2.59-2.71: a Turkey win brings a payout, a draw returns the stake. Good insurance for those who want to play the same scenario more cautiously.

• Turkey, over 1.5 goals - 2.65-2.67: a more aggressive option in case the pressure and volume of chances finally convert into goals.

• Double chance 1X (Turkey not to lose) - 1.83-1.90: the most cautious move under the same logic. The USA have already completed their task and may give up the match to an opponent who will come out angrier and more motivated.

Total Prediction

On the total, the market leans slightly more towards a high-scoring match. Over 2.5 is offered in the range of 1.70-1.75, Under 2.5 - 2.09-2.13. The logic is clear: Turkey create a large volume of chances but finish poorly, while the USA remain dangerous in open space even with rotation.

The main imbalance is not in the total, but in the outcome. The market is looking at Turkey's two defeats and the USA's six points, but it is underestimating the difference in motivation and the favourite's possible rotation. That is why Turkey to win at big odds remains the most interesting option.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

The market on both teams to score leans slightly towards Yes: Both teams to score - Yes is priced in the range of 1.63-1.67, while No is 2.19-2.25. That is logical for a match where Turkey have to press after two goalless games, while the USA keep their speed in transitions even with rotation.

Double Chance Prediction

1X is in the range of 1.83-1.90 - this is the safest way to back the idea that Turkey will not lose against the backdrop of the USA rotation. X2 is around 1.28-1.30, but that option does not fit well with the main prediction of a Turkey win.

Individual Totals

Turkey Individual Total (1.5):

Turkey, over 1.5 goals at 2.65-2.67 is an aggressive option for the same scenario. Turkey shoot a lot, press and finally have to convert their volume of chances into goals.

USA Individual Total (1.5):

The USA, under 1.5 goals at 1.83-1.85 looks logical if we start from rotation and the absence of tournament motivation. The Americans may retain quality in transitions, but without some starters it will be harder for them to press consistently and score twice.

Correct Score Prediction

The most workable option is 2:1 in favour of Turkey. Montella's team have to play on the front foot and convert pressure into goals, while the USA remain dangerous in quick transitions even with rotation. A 1:1 scoreline is possible if Turkey again run into finishing problems, but in terms of motivation and chance volume, an underdog win looks closer. A 3:1 option is a scenario with an early Turkey goal and an open finish, where the USA will have to respond without their usual first-choice core.

When and Where to Watch

The match will take place on 26 June 2026 at 03:00 BST. The venue is SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, USA.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match

Mustapha Ghorbal (Algeria)

Matches – 11 (International matches, 2025-2026);

Average fouls per match – 30;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 2.9;

Matches with a red card – 1 out of 11;

Matches with a penalty – 1 out of 11.