Uruguay vs Spain: prediction & betting odds 27 June 2026

Why Spain Are Favorites for the Match

Bookmakers consider La Roja one of the main contenders for the trophy, so it is no surprise that Spain can be backed to win against Uruguay at odds from 1.45 to 1.55, depending on the bookmaker:

• Spain are the reigning European champions and the only team in Group H yet to concede a goal.

• De la Fuente's team had settled the result against Saudi Arabia by the middle of the first half, allowing the leaders to save energy for the third round.

• Bielsa's team have not won since October: five draws and a heavy defeat to the United States (1:5) in their last six matches.

• Spain are among the tournament leaders for possession (70.7%) and share the lead for clean sheets with two other teams.

• Uruguay did not get what they wanted against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, struggling to come from behind before failing to hold on to a lead a few days later.

Form and Line-up Uruguay

Bielsa's structured Uruguay seem to have made a number of serious mistakes even before the meeting with the reigning European champions. First, the team failed to achieve the main thing: the result, drawing with Saudi Arabia (1:1) and Cape Verde (2:2), who are not the most dangerous opponents. Second, the South Americans' attacking group misfired. Former Liverpool forward Nunez has even lost the competition to Vinas. The key player in attack has been Sporting CP winger Araujo (2+1 at the 2026 World Cup).

Key numbers for Uruguay:

• Bielsa's team have not won since October: five draws and a defeat to the United States (1:5) in their last six matches.

• Against Cape Verde, Uruguay collapsed in the second half: 0.41-0.83 by xG and 0-3 in shots on target. The underdogs came back easily.

• Uruguay are in the top two for corners won at the 2026 World Cup (25). They have not scored from any of them.

Probable Uruguay line-up

(4-1-4-1): Fernando Muslera — Juan Sanabria, Mathias Olivera, Sebastian Caceres, Guillermo Varela — Manuel Ugarte — Maximiliano Araujo, Federico Valverde, Rodrigo Bentancur, Agustin Canobbio — Federico Vinas.

Form and Line-up Spain

La Roja learned their lesson from the unsuccessful performance against Cape Verde (0:0). Against Saudi Arabia (4:0), Spain secured the key advantage in the opening minutes, with Yamal and Oyarzabal scoring by the middle of the first half, the latter twice. It is clear that with Lamine in the starting line-up, De la Fuente's coaching staff have got the attack playing at full power. Williams is likely to be given more minutes as he works his way back after injury.

Key numbers for Spain:

• La Roja have the best pressing at the 2026 World Cup after two rounds. They average 8.5 tackles in the final third per 90 minutes.

• Spain have created seven big chances in two matches, putting them in the top seven for this metric.

• Spain are in the top three for possession (70.7%). They share the lead for clean sheets with Mexico and Argentina (all on 2).

Probable Spain line-up

(4-3-3): Unai Simon — Marc Cucurella, Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsi, Pedro Porro — Pedri, Rodri, Dani Olmo — Alex Baena, Mikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal.

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~4.8%). The average line is: Uruguay — 7.03, draw — 4.18, Spain — 1.50.

After removing the margin, Spain's win is estimated at around 64%, the draw at 23% and Uruguay's success at only 14%. The market barely believes in an upset: the gap between the teams in the odds looks significant, although the South Americans have strong footballers.

Alternative Bets

• Spain Draw No Bet — 1.13 to 1.17: a win means the bet wins, a draw means a refund. Minimal insurance against an unexpected result with the favorite dominant.

• Uruguay under 1.5 goals — 1.17 to 1.23: before the game against Saudi Arabia, the South Americans had scored two goals in only one of their last eight matches.

• Spain over 1.5 goals — 1.60 to 1.63: La Roja consistently convert chances against deep-lying opponents and rarely limit themselves to one goal.

• X2 (Spain not to lose) — 1.08 to 1.13: an extremely conservative option for accumulators with reliable favorites.

Total Goals Prediction

The totals line is tilted towards Over: Over 2.5 at 1.81 to 1.87, Under 2.5 at 1.96 to 2.02. The market is expecting a fairly high-scoring match. Both teams have top players in their squads who can open up the nature of the game.

The market is close to even on the 2.5 line, with a slight edge towards Over. Spain attack in a structured way and create plenty of chances, but Uruguay also need to push forward. The most likely scenario is Over 2.5 at 1.83 to 1.87, with a 2:1 or 3:1 scoreline in favour of La Roja in mind.

Handicap Prediction

Spain Draw No Bet at 1.13 to 1.17 is the most reliable position: a win means the bet wins, a draw means a refund. Taking this handicap on Uruguay is dangerous, as the opponent is far too strong and nobody believes in their victory.

Spain (-1) at 1.77 to 1.81 looks like a workable pick in the line. De la Fuente's team will have an advantage that should be converted into goals.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

In the both-teams-to-score market, there is a slight edge towards No: 1.79 to 1.85 against Yes at 1.93 to 2.01. Bookmakers doubt Uruguay's scoring activity, as La Celeste traditionally play from the back against elite opponents and could focus on holding a narrow scoreline if they happen to score early.

Both teams to score – No looks more logical given the teams' tournament situation. Neither Spain nor Uruguay will take risks.

Double Chance Prediction

A bet on X2 (Spain not to lose) at 1.09 is the basic option for a conservative accumulator. The 12 option at 1.20 to 1.23 will suit those who rule out a draw and are backing a decisive finish. 1X (Uruguay not to lose) at 2.54 to 2.65 is a bet on an upset or a tight match with a goalless draw.

X2 is the basic option for accumulators, but 12 looks more interesting if you want to build a higher price.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely scorelines are 1:0 and 2:0 in Spain's favour, with those bets priced at 6.00. The bookmakers do not believe Uruguay will spring a surprise in the third round of the group stage, as games against much easier opponents did not bring a win at the 2026 World Cup. La Roja should settle all questions about qualifying for the playoffs from first place.

When and Where to Watch

The match will take place on 27 June 2026 at 00:00 BST. The venue is Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, Mexico.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who Will Referee the Match

Ismail Elfath (USA)

Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024–2026);

Average fouls per match – 24;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 2.9;

Matches with a red card – 0 out of 8;

Matches with a penalty – 0 out of 8.